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40acredropout

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Everything posted by 40acredropout

  1. Let’s fucking go KU. Love it.
  2. He’s an annoying try-hard.
  3. Ended up 5-3, up to 29-23 overall (55.8%) and up 14% on the year. Got some work to do to get back to 60%.
  4. BYU 1H has been money this year. Have they announced who is starting at QB yet? Their first 3 guys are all banged up.
  5. Rolling into Saturday 2-0. Had Coastal -20 and then got ASU -14.5 live at +121 when Stanford’s 2nd string kicker got hurt. Didn’t end up mattering but liked that payout at the time. Saturday card: O44 WVU @ Baylor Bama -17.5 @ aggy Air Force -6 v Wyoming SDSU -19.5 v UNM UCLA -8 1H @ Arizona Good luck fellas
  6. Username checks out.
  7. Trying to be more programmatic / less of a dipshit in how I arrive at my picks. Put the following together to look at matchups based on a few simple metrics; thought some of you might find interesting / helpful.
  8. Thank god I added to my card. Ended up at 5-6 on the week, 24-20 on the year; I'm quickly regressing to the mean. Not exactly sure how I should (or if I want to) play it but looking at Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State on Thursday. Line already moved from 17.5 to 20. Coastal O vs. AS D is as lopsided of a matchup as I've seen: Coastal Offense: Points Per Play: .72 (3rd in country) Yards Per Rush: 6.0 (4th) Yards Per Pass Attempt: 11.3 (2nd) Arkansas State Defense: Points Per Play: .70 (128th in country... out of 130) Yards Per Rush: 7.3 (129th) Yards Per Pass Attempt: 10.5 (128th)
  9. Go to a different college football stadium every year on a guys trip and we will be in Columbus for the Notre Dame game next fall. Airbnb is a 1 minute walk from where the crime went down... guys aren't allowed to tell their wives.
  10. Immamac before he had Surly?
  11. One more I'm on and then I'll shut up and watch my card light up in flames for the weekend. BYU 1H -6.5 @ Utah State tonight. BYU 4-0 ATS 1H this year, covering on average by > 10 points. This is their first road games which gives me a little pause but I think this is their easiest game so far this year and expect them to take care of business.
  12. Okay, hot take: I have this feeling in my gut that Joey Freshwater is going to end Saban's undefeated streak against former assistants. For all of his flaws, Kiffin shows up in big games and there is nothing he wants more than to beat Saban, especially after the drama surrounding his departure for the FAU job. In his Tennessee season, it it weren't for a Terence Cody blocked FG as time expired, he would've pulled off the upset in Tuscaloosa. Last year Ole Miss is the only team besides UGA that ever had Alabama on the ropes (tied at half) but ultimately lost by 2 touchdowns in a track meet as Ole Miss defense couldn't keep up (were objectively awful last season- 113th in yards per play, 99th in points per play). This Ole Miss team is much improved across the board. Corral is a legitimate QB and they are going to put up points. They returned 10 defensive starters and are performing much better (35th in yards per play, 49th in points per play). In parts of Louisville and Tulane (very good offense) games I watched, they certainly looked the part. Watching UVA and Michigan State handle Miami really calls into question how meaningful Bama's early season win was. Then a Florida team only returning 9 starters from last season just took Alabama to the wire- In second half, Bama gave up 440 yards and allowed over 8 yards per play. This game is going to be fun as hell either way but I'm calling my shot on the upset. Sucker Underdog Moneyline Parlay: Notre Dame +110, Syracuse +185, Miss State +225, Ole Miss +485. $15 to win $1,353.
  13. Okay my card is full for the week unless you guys come at me with an absolute lock. Arkansas +18.5 @ UGA Notre Dame +2.5 v. Cinci WVU -7 v. TTU Ole Miss +14.5 @ Bama Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky BC +16 @ Clemson Miss State +7 @ aggy Fresno State -10.5 @ Hawaii Counting on 4 road dogs which isn't usually my thing but letting it ride.
  14. How much credence do you give to the following: aggy favored by 7 vs. Pirate & Miss State. aggy has Bama next week. Can the mental midgets handle a look-past game? Last two years, game before Bama: 2020: -31.5 Vs. Vandy. Result: W 17-12. Miss spread by 26.5 points. 2019: -23 Vs. Arkansas. Result: W 31-27. Miss spread by 19 points.
  15. I love how we are using his speed to block punts. If he starts 6 inches back on Saturday, he blocks his second in as many games. Reminds me when Florida would do the same with Jeffrey Demps (4.2 40 guy). Maybe we've always put our burners out there and I just didn't notice but nice to see us actually have some success.
  16. Oof, hence why nobody should ride my picks. Had no idea Thompson was hurt. Part of me wants to cancel that bet out now and just eat the vig but I'll probably just let it ride and hope for some more K-State magic. Just checked and line is up to 11 so the markets are in agreement with you.
  17. Thinking about adding: K-State +10.5 at home vs. OU (a team they've upset in consecutive years) Boston College +16 @ Clemson. They almost took them down last season and Clemson is reeling; hard to see them beating anybody by this many points right now.
  18. Great call.
  19. 3-2 last week to move to 19-14 on the year. Feel like I should've won the Buffalo bet but got lucky on the Clemson over so my results were about right. I'm waiting for my book to come out with lines but based off what I'm seeing elsewhere, I'm liking Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky Notre Dame +2.5 v. Cinci WVU -7 v. TTU,
  20. Debating the validity of the dictionary... Holy fuck you guys can nerd up a thread.
  21. @immamac Did I miss out on these already? Definitely want to give you my money for one of those shirts if still available.
  22. Okay, not sitting this week out after all. WVU +17 @ OU Liberty -6 @ Syracuse Buffalo -13 @ Old Dominion O47.5 Clemson v NC State
  23. Wonder how many posters will do a walk-by to scope out the crowd that shows up and just keep walking.
  24. Florida is at -20 on my book. I still might play it. At under 17 against this Tennessee team seems like easy money.
  25. Another shit week for me. 4-7 to bring me to 16-12 on the year. Think I'm gonna take a week off picking and just ride with whatever @Zeus is playing.
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