40acredropout

Thank god I added to my card. Ended up at 5-6 on the week, 24-20 on the year; I'm quickly regressing to the mean. Not exactly sure how I should (or if I want to) play it but looking at Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State on Thursday. Line already moved from 17.5 to 20. Coastal O vs. AS D is as lopsided of a matchup as I've seen: Coastal Offense: Points Per Play: .72 (3rd in country) Yards Per Rush: 6.0 (4th) Yards Per Pass Attempt: 11.3 (2nd) Arkansas State Defense: Points Per Play: .70 (128th in country... out of 130) Yards Per Rush: 7.3 (129th) Yards Per Pass Attempt: 10.5 (128th)

Go to a different college football stadium every year on a guys trip and we will be in Columbus for the Notre Dame game next fall. Airbnb is a 1 minute walk from where the crime went down... guys aren't allowed to tell their wives.

Immamac before he had Surly?

One more I'm on and then I'll shut up and watch my card light up in flames for the weekend. BYU 1H -6.5 @ Utah State tonight. BYU 4-0 ATS 1H this year, covering on average by > 10 points. This is their first road games which gives me a little pause but I think this is their easiest game so far this year and expect them to take care of business.

Okay, hot take: I have this feeling in my gut that Joey Freshwater is going to end Saban's undefeated streak against former assistants. For all of his flaws, Kiffin shows up in big games and there is nothing he wants more than to beat Saban, especially after the drama surrounding his departure for the FAU job. In his Tennessee season, it it weren't for a Terence Cody blocked FG as time expired, he would've pulled off the upset in Tuscaloosa. Last year Ole Miss is the only team besides UGA that ever had Alabama on the ropes (tied at half) but ultimately lost by 2 touchdowns in a track meet as Ole Miss defense couldn't keep up (were objectively awful last season- 113th in yards per play, 99th in points per play). This Ole Miss team is much improved across the board. Corral is a legitimate QB and they are going to put up points. They returned 10 defensive starters and are performing much better (35th in yards per play, 49th in points per play). In parts of Louisville and Tulane (very good offense) games I watched, they certainly looked the part. Watching UVA and Michigan State handle Miami really calls into question how meaningful Bama's early season win was. Then a Florida team only returning 9 starters from last season just took Alabama to the wire- In second half, Bama gave up 440 yards and allowed over 8 yards per play. This game is going to be fun as hell either way but I'm calling my shot on the upset. Sucker Underdog Moneyline Parlay: Notre Dame +110, Syracuse +185, Miss State +225, Ole Miss +485. $15 to win $1,353.

Okay my card is full for the week unless you guys come at me with an absolute lock. Arkansas +18.5 @ UGA Notre Dame +2.5 v. Cinci WVU -7 v. TTU Ole Miss +14.5 @ Bama Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky BC +16 @ Clemson Miss State +7 @ aggy Fresno State -10.5 @ Hawaii Counting on 4 road dogs which isn't usually my thing but letting it ride.

How much credence do you give to the following: aggy favored by 7 vs. Pirate & Miss State. aggy has Bama next week. Can the mental midgets handle a look-past game? Last two years, game before Bama: 2020: -31.5 Vs. Vandy. Result: W 17-12. Miss spread by 26.5 points. 2019: -23 Vs. Arkansas. Result: W 31-27. Miss spread by 19 points.

I love how we are using his speed to block punts. If he starts 6 inches back on Saturday, he blocks his second in as many games. Reminds me when Florida would do the same with Jeffrey Demps (4.2 40 guy). Maybe we've always put our burners out there and I just didn't notice but nice to see us actually have some success.

Oof, hence why nobody should ride my picks. Had no idea Thompson was hurt. Part of me wants to cancel that bet out now and just eat the vig but I'll probably just let it ride and hope for some more K-State magic. Just checked and line is up to 11 so the markets are in agreement with you.

Thinking about adding: K-State +10.5 at home vs. OU (a team they've upset in consecutive years) Boston College +16 @ Clemson. They almost took them down last season and Clemson is reeling; hard to see them beating anybody by this many points right now.

Great call.

3-2 last week to move to 19-14 on the year. Feel like I should've won the Buffalo bet but got lucky on the Clemson over so my results were about right. I'm waiting for my book to come out with lines but based off what I'm seeing elsewhere, I'm liking Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky Notre Dame +2.5 v. Cinci WVU -7 v. TTU,

Debating the validity of the dictionary... Holy fuck you guys can nerd up a thread.

@immamac Did I miss out on these already? Definitely want to give you my money for one of those shirts if still available.

Okay, not sitting this week out after all. WVU +17 @ OU Liberty -6 @ Syracuse Buffalo -13 @ Old Dominion O47.5 Clemson v NC State

Wonder how many posters will do a walk-by to scope out the crowd that shows up and just keep walking.

Florida is at -20 on my book. I still might play it. At under 17 against this Tennessee team seems like easy money.

Another shit week for me. 4-7 to bring me to 16-12 on the year. Think I'm gonna take a week off picking and just ride with whatever @Zeus is playing.

Yep, I got my card for the week. Looks like multiple differences of opinion within the thread this week. Liberty - 27 v Old Dominion Wake Forest -6 v Florida State Alabama -15.5 @ Florida OU -22 v Nebraska Miami -6.5 v Michigan State UCF -7 @ Louisville (I actually regret placing this one) Didn't realized until I placed my bets that I didn't pick a single dog. I'm probably succumbing to some simpleton gambling fallacy but whatever, let it rip.

These are circled on my "looks interesting at first glance" list but I actually ended up on other side as you. I can't argue with logic of a _iaz fade but I actually like Canes here (as someone who watched neither of their games this year). MSU seems very mediocre to me and their win against NW doesn't impress as that team lost about everything from last year (which admittedly they also beat that squad to be fair). Alabama was Alabama and App State actually had 10 starters back from what was a top 20 defense by most metrics. I think Miami offense looks more like what it looked like last year and has no trouble scoring and I don't really believe MSU can keep up (a bottom 20 offense last year by most metrics). It does seem like a lot of points when you look at OU v Tulane game but I expect OU offense to finally be clicking and I have absolutely zero confidence in an Aaron Martinez led offense. I really just think Nebraska is dog shit, which maybe is adequately baked in at 22 but I could see this being a beat down.

Definitely. Some of my favorite CFB moments in last few years have been non-marquee to obscure weeknight games I bet (see Tulsa hail mary against Tulane or 2018 Egg Bowl). It's not by design but upside is it often working out to where I have something I'm interested in watching all day.

I returned to earth this week lol. Coastal just squeaked by and then I got obliterated on my other picks. That puts me at 12-5 and up 45% on the year but I'm going into Week 3 reminded that I don't know shit.

They beat Kansas in Kansas by 15 points last year in their opener after being a 5 win team in 2019. They return something like 20 starters and reached another level by the end of the season. I think they’re solid and I think Kansas is that bad.

Aight, will see how long my luck can last. Actually feel really solid about these which is why I probably go 0-4. Coastal Carolina -25 v Kansas NC State -2.5 @ Mississippi State Liberty v Troy O61.5 Army v Western Kentucky U52

I actually do like us a lot at -6.5 but my new personal rule is that I don't touch UT or A&M games anymore. I am a mental midget and my reasoning is so easily clouded by my obvious bias.