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40acredropout

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Everything posted by 40acredropout

  1. Yep, I got my card for the week. Looks like multiple differences of opinion within the thread this week. Liberty - 27 v Old Dominion Wake Forest -6 v Florida State Alabama -15.5 @ Florida OU -22 v Nebraska Miami -6.5 v Michigan State UCF -7 @ Louisville (I actually regret placing this one) Didn't realized until I placed my bets that I didn't pick a single dog. I'm probably succumbing to some simpleton gambling fallacy but whatever, let it rip.
  2. These are circled on my "looks interesting at first glance" list but I actually ended up on other side as you. I can't argue with logic of a _iaz fade but I actually like Canes here (as someone who watched neither of their games this year). MSU seems very mediocre to me and their win against NW doesn't impress as that team lost about everything from last year (which admittedly they also beat that squad to be fair). Alabama was Alabama and App State actually had 10 starters back from what was a top 20 defense by most metrics. I think Miami offense looks more like what it looked like last year and has no trouble scoring and I don't really believe MSU can keep up (a bottom 20 offense last year by most metrics). It does seem like a lot of points when you look at OU v Tulane game but I expect OU offense to finally be clicking and I have absolutely zero confidence in an Aaron Martinez led offense. I really just think Nebraska is dog shit, which maybe is adequately baked in at 22 but I could see this being a beat down.
  3. Definitely. Some of my favorite CFB moments in last few years have been non-marquee to obscure weeknight games I bet (see Tulsa hail mary against Tulane or 2018 Egg Bowl). It's not by design but upside is it often working out to where I have something I'm interested in watching all day.
  4. I returned to earth this week lol. Coastal just squeaked by and then I got obliterated on my other picks. That puts me at 12-5 and up 45% on the year but I'm going into Week 3 reminded that I don't know shit.
  5. They beat Kansas in Kansas by 15 points last year in their opener after being a 5 win team in 2019. They return something like 20 starters and reached another level by the end of the season. I think they’re solid and I think Kansas is that bad.
  6. Aight, will see how long my luck can last. Actually feel really solid about these which is why I probably go 0-4. Coastal Carolina -25 v Kansas NC State -2.5 @ Mississippi State Liberty v Troy O61.5 Army v Western Kentucky U52
  7. I actually do like us a lot at -6.5 but my new personal rule is that I don't touch UT or A&M games anymore. I am a mental midget and my reasoning is so easily clouded by my obvious bias.
  8. I was starting to get nervous in the 4th but I was silly to doubt the collective wisdom in this thread.
  9. Aight, I’ll give in. In at U75, surly consensus is good enough for me.
  10. Ha not necessarily... Just too many years of me never hitting them.
  11. Wow… went 5-0 this week to bring me to 10-1 on year. Better to be (very) lucky than good. I wish I was younger and still adding parlaying my weekly picks.
  12. One more play I'm liking. Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech O52.5 Neither was very productive last year (109 and 107 in points per drive, respectively) Note La Tech ranked 32 in PPD in 2019 but in 2020 was breaking in 3 new linemen, a new QB and a new OC They both air it the fuck out (1st and 25th in pass rate in 2020) Both return 8 starters (including QB) on offense I believe Pirate's offense takes a big step forward with a couple of transfers at receiver / a year under his belt with existing roster.
  13. That was some bad football.
  14. PM'ed you.
  15. Will likely be adding Wake Forest 1H against Old Dominion when my book comes out with half lines. Full game is at 31.5, as long as it's 16.5 or less I'll jump on it. Old Dominion is another school who sat out 2020 and only won one game in 2019. Wake Forest returns all 11 starters on what was a ~top 50 offense and also 10 starters back on what was an admittedly meh defense.
  16. Lines I'm liking at first glance... tell me why I'm an idiot on these before I place them. UTSA +6 @ Illinois (UTSA returning 21 starters from a team that was within a TD of very good BYU and Louisiana teams last year) OU -16.5 1H v Tulane (was supposed to played in LA but now in OK) Arkansas -20 v Rice (doesn't feel like enough points) U60 Tennessee v Bowling Green (mass exodus of talent out of Knoxville and BG was dead last in scoring per possession last season).
  17. Added UTEP -9.5 and ended up 5-1 on the day. It is surely only down hill from here.
  18. I would’ve taken full game under on NEB/ILL but it had gotten pushed down to 53.5 on my book. Got U27.5 1H which I still feel good about- Martinez is good for a turnover or two in the first half and I could see Illinois starting out slow with a new system (not to mention Bileima loves slowing it down anyways).
  19. Beat me by 2 minutes. I might add UTEP to my card. These are both bottom 20 D1 teams but I think NMST might actually be that bad. They skipped last fall and played in spring and got smashed by (fresh out of D2) Tarleton State and barely squeaked by Dixie State.
  20. Didn’t see this going yet. How I plan on flushing my money down the toilet in week 0: NMSU v UTEP: U59 Nebraska -7 @ Illinois & U27.5 1H Fresno State -16.5 1H v UConn UCLA -10 1H v Hawaii What y’all got?
  21. To be honest I thought you guys were going to step on your own dicks trying to get this thing off the ground. Happy to have been wrong and happier to now be a BMD. Waiting for my flair...
  22. Yup, career is over.
  23. The Westlake bias is out of control in Indy.
  24. I know Sam was named starter for next game but is he expected to get snaps in this one?
  25. Javy comes across as a super friendly, likeable guy; teammates love him. I can't recall him ever having beef with a player on another team either. Except for this motherfucker. Javy was already barking at Amir as he stepped in the box. Camera panned to Cubs dugout and you could see his teammates laughing. First pitch- ballgame and go fuck yourself, Amir.
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