40acredropout

I was starting to get nervous in the 4th but I was silly to doubt the collective wisdom in this thread.

Aight, I’ll give in. In at U75, surly consensus is good enough for me.

Ha not necessarily... Just too many years of me never hitting them.

Wow… went 5-0 this week to bring me to 10-1 on year. Better to be (very) lucky than good. I wish I was younger and still adding parlaying my weekly picks.

One more play I'm liking. Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech O52.5 Neither was very productive last year (109 and 107 in points per drive, respectively) Note La Tech ranked 32 in PPD in 2019 but in 2020 was breaking in 3 new linemen, a new QB and a new OC They both air it the fuck out (1st and 25th in pass rate in 2020) Both return 8 starters (including QB) on offense I believe Pirate's offense takes a big step forward with a couple of transfers at receiver / a year under his belt with existing roster.

That was some bad football.

PM'ed you.

Will likely be adding Wake Forest 1H against Old Dominion when my book comes out with half lines. Full game is at 31.5, as long as it's 16.5 or less I'll jump on it. Old Dominion is another school who sat out 2020 and only won one game in 2019. Wake Forest returns all 11 starters on what was a ~top 50 offense and also 10 starters back on what was an admittedly meh defense.

Lines I'm liking at first glance... tell me why I'm an idiot on these before I place them. UTSA +6 @ Illinois (UTSA returning 21 starters from a team that was within a TD of very good BYU and Louisiana teams last year) OU -16.5 1H v Tulane (was supposed to played in LA but now in OK) Arkansas -20 v Rice (doesn't feel like enough points) U60 Tennessee v Bowling Green (mass exodus of talent out of Knoxville and BG was dead last in scoring per possession last season).

Added UTEP -9.5 and ended up 5-1 on the day. It is surely only down hill from here.

I would’ve taken full game under on NEB/ILL but it had gotten pushed down to 53.5 on my book. Got U27.5 1H which I still feel good about- Martinez is good for a turnover or two in the first half and I could see Illinois starting out slow with a new system (not to mention Bileima loves slowing it down anyways).

Beat me by 2 minutes. I might add UTEP to my card. These are both bottom 20 D1 teams but I think NMST might actually be that bad. They skipped last fall and played in spring and got smashed by (fresh out of D2) Tarleton State and barely squeaked by Dixie State.

Didn’t see this going yet. How I plan on flushing my money down the toilet in week 0: NMSU v UTEP: U59 Nebraska -7 @ Illinois & U27.5 1H Fresno State -16.5 1H v UConn UCLA -10 1H v Hawaii What y’all got?

To be honest I thought you guys were going to step on your own dicks trying to get this thing off the ground. Happy to have been wrong and happier to now be a BMD. Waiting for my flair...

Yup, career is over.

The Westlake bias is out of control in Indy.

I know Sam was named starter for next game but is he expected to get snaps in this one?

Javy comes across as a super friendly, likeable guy; teammates love him. I can't recall him ever having beef with a player on another team either. Except for this motherfucker. Javy was already barking at Amir as he stepped in the box. Camera panned to Cubs dugout and you could see his teammates laughing. First pitch- ballgame and go fuck yourself, Amir.

Pretty bad look for @immamacto pop up in this dumb shit.

I'm thinking about how this fits in with the new SEC/ESPN deal. ESPN bought 10 years of exclusive rights to SEC football/basketball for $3B (CBS no longer gets their weekly pick of the litter). That deal was finalized December 2020. Seeing that discussions started with the SEC ~6 months ago, was Texas/OU joining part of the calculus? If not, does the deal get restructured now (seems like SEC has a pretty good case), sending more money back to the SEC schools? This is such a fucking home run for ESPN. Not sure exactly how it gets wrapped up, but (to some extent) wash your hands of your $15M/yr (plus operating costs) LHN obligation, and then add Texas and OU who each will provide you 3-4 more marquee matchups per year. Texas v LSU pulled 8.4M viewers which (I believe) would have been second most watched SEC game in last two seasons. Feels like they got a taste of what could be and went out and made it happen.

Thinking about how rest of Big 12 would fare so looked at TV viewership from last season. (Source) Some of you are probably capable of better analytic work but my attempt at summarizing. Will try to do same for other conferences when I get a chance.

On any (real) political hurdles. Worth pointing out: "In the early 1980s, state appropriations provided more than 40% of the University of Oklahoma’s operating budget. Today, the state pays for roughly 10% of the Norman campus’ budget." - Link Won't pretend to understand higher education funding / legality of all of this but what other levers would OSU be able to pull? Obviously can sue for damages in event OU/UT bolt before end of Big 12 TV deal in 2025 but seems like that gets settled anyways. But purely threatening to cut state appropriations doesn't seem like it really has that much teeth. Anything I'm missing here? Texas feels different in sense that you'd have Tech, Baylor and TCU all bitching but obviously Tech is the only public institution in that equation. And together can they rally any credible political opposition? Worth pointing out 11% of UT operating budget comes from state funds appropriated by legislature and another 12% from the PUF but (I could be wrong) I don't see how that could even be touched or threatened in some kind of threat. Link

I wish we all could be as smart as you.

What stronger conference is out there for Ohio State and Michigan that already has historic rivals as members + a more logical geographic footprint?

Kept hearing how we hit it out of the park with Arch Manning on his visit… wonder if this was part of it.