Okay my card is full for the week unless you guys come at me with an absolute lock.
Arkansas +18.5 @ UGA
Notre Dame +2.5 v. Cinci
WVU -7 v. TTU
Ole Miss +14.5 @ Bama
Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky
BC +16 @ Clemson
Miss State +7 @ aggy
Fresno State -10.5 @ Hawaii
Counting on 4 road dogs which isn't usually my thing but letting it ride.
How much credence do you give to the following:
aggy favored by 7 vs. Pirate & Miss State. aggy has Bama next week. Can the mental midgets handle a look-past game? Last two years, game before Bama:
2020: -31.5 Vs. Vandy. Result: W 17-12. Miss spread by 26.5 points.
2019: -23 Vs. Arkansas. Result: W 31-27. Miss spread by 19 points.
I love how we are using his speed to block punts. If he starts 6 inches back on Saturday, he blocks his second in as many games.
Reminds me when Florida would do the same with Jeffrey Demps (4.2 40 guy). Maybe we've always put our burners out there and I just didn't notice but nice to see us actually have some success.
Oof, hence why nobody should ride my picks. Had no idea Thompson was hurt. Part of me wants to cancel that bet out now and just eat the vig but I'll probably just let it ride and hope for some more K-State magic.
Just checked and line is up to 11 so the markets are in agreement with you.
Thinking about adding:
K-State +10.5 at home vs. OU (a team they've upset in consecutive years)
Boston College +16 @ Clemson. They almost took them down last season and Clemson is reeling; hard to see them beating anybody by this many points right now.
3-2 last week to move to 19-14 on the year. Feel like I should've won the Buffalo bet but got lucky on the Clemson over so my results were about right.
I'm waiting for my book to come out with lines but based off what I'm seeing elsewhere, I'm liking
Florida -8.5 @ Kentucky
Notre Dame +2.5 v. Cinci
WVU -7 v. TTU,
Yep, I got my card for the week. Looks like multiple differences of opinion within the thread this week.
Liberty - 27 v Old Dominion
Wake Forest -6 v Florida State
Alabama -15.5 @ Florida
OU -22 v Nebraska
Miami -6.5 v Michigan State
UCF -7 @ Louisville (I actually regret placing this one)
Didn't realized until I placed my bets that I didn't pick a single dog. I'm probably succumbing to some simpleton gambling fallacy but whatever, let it rip.
These are circled on my "looks interesting at first glance" list but I actually ended up on other side as you.
I can't argue with logic of a _iaz fade but I actually like Canes here (as someone who watched neither of their games this year). MSU seems very mediocre to me and their win against NW doesn't impress as that team lost about everything from last year (which admittedly they also beat that squad to be fair). Alabama was Alabama and App State actually had 10 starters back from what was a top 20 defense by most metrics. I think Miami offense looks more like what it looked like last year and has no trouble scoring and I don't really believe MSU can keep up (a bottom 20 offense last year by most metrics).
It does seem like a lot of points when you look at OU v Tulane game but I expect OU offense to finally be clicking and I have absolutely zero confidence in an Aaron Martinez led offense. I really just think Nebraska is dog shit, which maybe is adequately baked in at 22 but I could see this being a beat down.
Definitely. Some of my favorite CFB moments in last few years have been non-marquee to obscure weeknight games I bet (see Tulsa hail mary against Tulane or 2018 Egg Bowl). It's not by design but upside is it often working out to where I have something I'm interested in watching all day.
I returned to earth this week lol. Coastal just squeaked by and then I got obliterated on my other picks.
That puts me at 12-5 and up 45% on the year but I'm going into Week 3 reminded that I don't know shit.
They beat Kansas in Kansas by 15 points last year in their opener after being a 5 win team in 2019. They return something like 20 starters and reached another level by the end of the season. I think they’re solid and I think Kansas is that bad.
Aight, will see how long my luck can last. Actually feel really solid about these which is why I probably go 0-4.
Coastal Carolina -25 v Kansas
NC State -2.5 @ Mississippi State
Liberty v Troy O61.5
Army v Western Kentucky U52
I actually do like us a lot at -6.5 but my new personal rule is that I don't touch UT or A&M games anymore. I am a mental midget and my reasoning is so easily clouded by my obvious bias.
Wow… went 5-0 this week to bring me to 10-1 on year. Better to be (very) lucky than good. I wish I was younger and still adding parlaying my weekly picks.
One more play I'm liking.
Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech O52.5
Neither was very productive last year (109 and 107 in points per drive, respectively)
Note La Tech ranked 32 in PPD in 2019 but in 2020 was breaking in 3 new linemen, a new QB and a new OC
They both air it the fuck out (1st and 25th in pass rate in 2020)
Both return 8 starters (including QB) on offense
I believe Pirate's offense takes a big step forward with a couple of transfers at receiver / a year under his belt with existing roster.