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40acredropout

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by 40acredropout

  1. Fuck me, I know nothing. 1-2.
  2. I've got: Ohio -27.5 v Akron - Akron is that bad. Kent State -21.5 @ Bowling Green - BG's roster is 60% freshman and their QB went 8-30 w/ 2 picks last week. Miami @ Buffalo O56 - These teams return 86% and 80% of offensive production from last year (ranks 10th and 16th in FBS) that combined to average 55.6 ppg. They both gave up over 30 points last week.
  3. Wyoming unis are some of my favorites.
  4. He's just a sophomore too. Commentators were already slobbering all over it, but it really is impressive to watch him work through his reads and throw darts to the open guy. Getting pretty good protection which makes it a little easier but I'd guess this guy will play on Sundays.
  5. The answer is and always will be no. Last night was great. Getting in on the games tonight as well: Nevada -10 1H v Utah State. The Nevada QB is fucking legit and the Utah State qb is.... quite the opposite. Wyoming -3 @ Colorado State. Nothing intelligent to add... I thought Wyoming looked good last week so rolling with it.
  6. 3-3 on the week. Naturally the two I was most confident in (K State and ND) were whiffs. That said, ND had the ball inside the 5 with the opportunity to cover as time expired so that was fun. Mad at myself for not sticking to my gut and going with BC again, who has been one of my money horses this year (along with BYU).
  7. Yep, they're gonna take this shit to OT and boink me.
  8. The Kennedy cutback was unreal. I took U52 and was feeling good most of the game but sweating a little now...
  9. Has there been one single substantiated report of interest - either way - between us and Urban?
  10. Added the following to the tab: Cinci -7 vs. Memphis <--- Really impressed blowing out SMU on the road last week. Don't think 7 is enough points, especially at home. Minnesota -20 @ Maryland <--- PTSD betting against Maryland but they're that bad. Ole Miss -16.5 @ Vandy <-- Still can't believe Vandy played A&M as close as they did because this is a really bad team. Think Lane Train rolls them. BYU -29 vs Western Kentucky <-- Think Vegas has underestimated this BYU team all season- 5-1 ATS and I think this isn't enough points.
  11. Last week was kind to me. 4-1. Whiffed on NC State (I underestimated how shitty their QB situation was) but hit BC, K-State, Bama and the Over (43.5) in the Notre Dame @ Pitt game. Early lines I'm liking most this week: KSU +3.5 @ WVU is a line I've probably liked more than any other Big 12 game this season; will take KSU ML. That of course probably means WVU covers, but nonetheless this will probably be my biggest bet this weekend. Please tell me why I'm an idiot on this one- KSU seems to be getting better and better and I have been completely unimpressed with WVU. Notre Dame -20 @ Georgia Tech who lost by 21 to BC last week and Clemson by 67 the week before.
  12. Early, but lines I think I'm liking: NC State +16.5 @ UNC. NC State just lost their starting QB so need to do some research there but I'm forever unconvinced on Mack's Tarheels and this feels like a lot of points. K State - 18.5 vs KU. Boston College - 4 vs. Georgia Tech
  13. Not a great week... Went 2-3 on the above. Chased my losses with Bama so that worked out okay but still barely broke even. I fucking hate Tulane. Bet for them, screw me. Bet against them, screw me. I was also on the wrong end of their insane hail mary at the buzzer last year against Houston. Add them to the Horns on my list of unbettables.
  14. Added Ole Miss to my card last week last minute which would have had me at 4-1 and a solid week. Naturally, my drunkass broke my promise to myself to not touch the Horns again this season and about wiped out my week. What is bankroll management? This week liking: SMU -6.5 @ Tulane BC +11 @ Va Tech NC State -4.5 vs Duke A&M -6.5 @ Miss State Ole Miss -3 @ Arkansas Bunch of away teams again which scares me but going to go with it.
  15. Motherfuckers won the turnover battle 5-0 and still managed to lose by 18 points.
  16. Two straight weeks of Ofers is actually kind of impressive.
  17. Yeah I hear ya... My working thesis early on was that empty stadiums would negate home field advantages but not sure I've seen enough to support it. I do get weary when I see all the road picks but I still THINK I see value in these. But again, I'm an idiot so we will see.
  18. I also have: South Carolina -13 @ Vandy K state +8.5 @ TCU Boston College +6 vs. Pitt. Tulane + 7 @ Houston. I already know I'm a dumb fuck so don't have to tell me.
  19. I'm also on Fla -7. I actually do like Kiffin to cover but not enough to put it on my card. He loves being a thorn in Saban's side and you know he will have them up for it at home. Bama also has UGA next week.
  20. Got my ass kicked in Week 12. Posting my picks until @joeycovers posts his and I can jump on those. Nebraska -4 @ Maryland OSU -7 @ WVU Tulsa -2.5 vs Houston Virginia Tech -4 vs Pitt Minnesota -13.5 @ Northwestern
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