UConn +10 @ Army
I think this UConn team has improved a ton over the course of the season. Remember, they didn't play in 2020 and then this is Jim Mora's first season as well. Say what you want about Mora, but he's a fantastic get for Uconn and he seems to be coaching them up.
Started out 1-4 (0-4 against FBS) and have now won 5 of their last 6.
Just upset Liberty as a 13.5 point dawg, upset BC (by 10 points) as a 7.5 point dawg and beat Fresno State as a 22.5 point dawg
9-2 ATS so far this season. Covered 7 in a row
This is their last regular season game of the year. Army has two more after this. Feel like Mora keeps them from looking ahead to their bowl
Army has won 1 game against FBS competition this year. FEI has them as 89th overall because they've actually played a decent schedule (Uconn at 108th)
These teams rank 127th and 125th in seconds per play and 129th and 127th in Pass Play %. Won't be a lot of points and I like Uconn's odds of keeping it close.
Auburn -5.5 vs Western Kentucky
I think Cadillac has Auburn motivated to play this one. Despite Alabama being next week, Auburn sits at 4 wins so I feel like he gets them up for Senior Night and has them believing they can still go bowling.
WKU airs it the fuck out. Throw 60% of the time (12th in country). Auburn defense got their first test against a productive pass offense two weeks ago against Mississippi State. They started to figure them out:
1st Half: 36 Plays, 217 Yards, 6.03 yards/play, 24 points
2nd Half: 42 Plays, 138 Yards, 3.29 yards/play, 9 points
Best team WKU has played to date is UTSA (58th in FEI).
Really I'm counting on SEC size and athleticism showing up and dominating this game. I think Auburn can slow down the air attack and my hope is Tank Bigsby can impose his will on the ground and wear out a WKU defense who has been more vulnerable against the run.
Obligatory for if (when) I'm wrong: