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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. Someone else ran and won on “affordability” last night. Say his name. 🐀
  2. FDR was a populist. His second “Bill of Rights” remains a powerful blueprint for winning elections. FDR, January 11, 1944: “We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. "Necessitous men are not free men." People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made. In our day these economic truths have become accepted as self-evident. We have accepted, so to speak, a second Bill of Rights under which a new basis of security and prosperity can be established for all—regardless of station, race, or creed. Among these are: The right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the nation; The right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation; The right of every farmer to raise and sell his products at a return which will give him and his family a decent living; The right of every businessman, large and small, to trade in an atmosphere of freedom from unfair competition and domination by monopolies at home or abroad; The right of every family to a decent home; The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health; The right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment; The right to a good education. All of these rights spell security. And after this war is won we must be prepared to move forward, in the implementation of these rights, to new goals of human happiness and well-being. America's own rightful place in the world depends in large part upon how fully these and similar rights have been carried into practice for all our citizens. For unless there is security here at home there cannot be lasting peace in the world.” In 2025, the wicked and the corrupt call these policy goals “communism.” In 1944, these words steeled American spines as they fought against the fascists abroad and on the home-front. They fought for a better future that is long past due.
  3. What haunts the Democratic Party are the “specters of lost futures”— the futures that modernism promised but failed to materialize.
  4. The President may only remove a Fed Member “for cause.” “For cause” in the case of an independent agency member is a high standard. There must be a clear nexus between the alleged misconduct and the official’s duties and responsibilities as a Fed Member. The alleged misconduct occurred prior to Cook beginning her 14 year term. The misconduct alleged in this setting has nothing to do with performance as a Fed member. A personal financial transgression, even an illegal one, prior to holding office does not meet the “for cause” standard.
  5. Did any of you get the invite? Peter Thiel sermonazing on the biblical antichrist.
  6. Market oriented stabilizer failing (higher prices should incentivize increases in capital expenditures). Stagnating economic indicator. Not good.
  7. PPI came in 7 standard deviations more than consensus expectations. Not ideal, to say the least. Stagflation remains a nightmarish risk, as the only cure (massive Paul Volcker-type rate hikes) may kill the patient). The bond vigilantes are sharpening their teeth.
  8. Goldman has its inflation breakdown out: Through June, importers shouldering most of the tariffs/tax increases: Inflation w/out tariffs/tax increases v. inflation with tariffs/tax increases. A Fed rate cut will add fuel to increasing inflation. The following shows the goods experiencing significant price increases. Appliances showing a 37% price increase since January 2025.
  9. Your 'analysis' is a masterclass in economic illiteracy. Death spiral? Hyperbole isn't data. Fed doesn't set rates? Tell that to the bond market. Ignoring money supply? They track M2 through their weekly H.6 reports. DSGE frameworks explicitly analyzes money growth. 'No one should print money'? Congrats, you've invented barter. You are out of your depth Neo-goldbug. No offense intended.
  10. The dumb fuck is too stupid to understand the bad jobs numbers justify the Fed lowering rates. His tariffs, however, are spurring price increases—ramping up inflation worries, which justify keeping rates steady. Stagflation is what I am seeing.
  11. Get paid $26 an hour to work at an American concentration camp (and earn a chance for a one way ticket to Nuremberg).
  12. The USD has lost 10.8% of its value since the start of 2025.
  13. Meyers: “For someone with intellectual curiosity, life is a wonderful, perpetual and eternal university.” Rest in peace, Mr. Moyers.
  14. I think doomsday-libertarian Peter Thiel in 2020 stumbled onto what has been self-evident for quite some time now.
  15. Help me understand why poor people vote against their own interest
  16. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait open will be a challenge for those nations dependent on those chokepoints for oil, goods and military transport.
  17. Too many Americans fail to understand they are “what’s for dinner.” As LBJ said: “If you can convince the lowest white man that he is better than the best colored man, he will not notice you picked his pocket. Hell, give him someone to look down on, and he will empty his pockets for you.”
  18. The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade is undefeated.
  19. Accelerator ignited.
  20. The Fed appears to be curtailing QT. No QE yet, but the Fed is easing on tightening to maintain liquidity.
  21. He’s folding after going all-in and getting called. Folding. Once an all-in is called, he must show his cards. He has a whole lot of nothing. The Emporer has no clothes.
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