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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. Antitrust laws have been so neglected I doubt there is a problem. They will probably spin off the low performing stores into a brand that will fail to give the appearance of competition. Walmart will continue to dominate regardless of the merger.
  2. USD remains the preeminent safe haven. British attempts to resurrect the voodoo economics of Maggie and Ronnie were aborted quickly with the ouster of the Kwarteng. As for the almighty Fed - remember PCE is their more trusted data source - not CPI. Volatility is the name of the game. Technicals trigger tumult in the markets.
  3. Thank goodness for Paul Revere . . .
  4. Want to feel worse? Bernanke just won the Nobel Prize for stating the obvious - “He who controls the USD brrt machine - controls the world.”
  5. She does have a point. There are deflationary headwinds building. From Ms. Woods open letter to JPow: Bernanke, Janet and Jay Dove would have had the brrrt machines in maximum overdrive with those headwind numbers (and Cathie would have been stacking money for nothing). Those days are over. There has been a regime change since the inflation bogeyman was reanimated. Cathie needs to ramp up her pump and dump game if she is going to keep up with the vultures making money in the equity markets these days.
  6. Earnings setting up to be brutal. 3250 here we come. Delayed capitulation because retail doesn’t know where to go.
  7. Oil is an artificial cartel-controlled market with monopoly power. The oil market is not a free market. Quaint free market notions of price competition do not apply. Invest accordingly. The Fed is looking for demand destruction via unemployment. The Fed hopes more unemployment will increase the supply of available workers, which will force workers to accept lower wages (price competition). The Fed expects lower wages and increased unemployment will suppress demand. The Fed desperately wants markets to believe there is no Fed backstop (the “Fed Put”) for financial markets this time. The question of whether the Fed Put (brrrt) still exists remains an open question.
  8. In the good news is bad news update today - ISM Services PMI Index: 56.7 vs. 56.0 consensus and 56.9 in August. The services sector continues to grow despite the Fed hiking rates. The is bad news for inflation and signals the Fed will not slow rate hikes. Oil headed up will contribute to higher inflation (price at the pump).
  9. The Dollar Doom Cycle is not a controversial concept. A strong dollar is a liquidity tightener - and a safe haven. The normal off-ramp is the Fed lowering rates. And therein lies the problem. The Fed is so fearful of inflation that it cannot lower rates. Hence - the global dollar doom cycle becomes a risk. I hope that helps.
  10. The strong USD has disadvantages. Volatility remains in charge.
  11. RBA “pivots”with smaller .25 rate increase. Australia/RBA can be a bellwether for Fed action. Bad News = Good News: JOLTS job openings down one million. Jobs report Is Friday Equity markets pricing in pivot already (danger Will Robinson). Oil up with OPEC cutting output and SPR ending releases at end of the month. Additional sanctions on Russian oil creates an inflationary spiral. tldr: premature pivot prognostication
  12. Saddam lit the oilfields of Kuwait on fire in a scorched-earth retreat. Finland has a strong historic claim to Vyborg (the Soviet Union captured the city in 1944). Vyborg is the starting point for the original Nord Stream pipeline, making it an attractive target for capture by the West. It would not surprise me if Russia decided to remove any incentive to recapture Vyborg and utilize Nord Stream 1.
  13. Ian tentacle reaching Clemson.
  14. The IMF is not pleased with GB. The IMF usually saves this type of admonishment for developing economies. “Given elevated inflation pressures in many countries, including UK, we do not recommend large untargeted fiscal packages at this juncture, as it is important fiscal policy does not work at cross purposes to monetary policy.”
  15. J Pow has promised more pain. TINA has become TARA for equities.
  16. Good data (consumer confidence and new home sales) = Fed will see the need to increase pain.
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