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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. The Fed Put (originally the Greenspan Put) is apolitical. It was welfare for the fabulously wealthy. “Follow the Fed” was the mantra of the little guy cashing in on the welfare program designed for the wealthy.
  2. Wharton Business School professor Jeremy Siegel (Siegel’s paradox) calls his shot: “. . .One source of inflation that worries some economists and policymakers now is the threat from rising wages, which can create a so-called wage-price spiral, where higher prices push up wages, which then reinforce still higher prices. However, Siegel said he doesn't think wages are really driving inflation this time, saying that recent worker raises appear to be "catch-up" rather than impetus. "It seems to me wrong for Powell to say we're going to crush wage increases, we're going to crush the worker, when that is not the cause of the inflation. The cause of the inflation was excessive monetary accommodation for the last two years," Siegel said.” https://apple.news/AkTa4wEPHQj2Gsm_esHoDew
  3. Supply disruptions are the new normal. Covid eliminated years of neoliberal efficiency gains. Lean = fragile. Fragile = inefficient when it breaks. Inefficient = more resources, including labor. J Powell promises pain. It appears he plans to deliver. But if true to form, the Fed will loosen afterwards so the big boys can swoop in with cheap money and gobble up distressed firms and assets for pennies on the dollar. Same as it ever was.
  4. Yen stronger against USD with unilateral BOJ FX intervention (the guess is 1% of BOJ reserves selling USD and buying Yen). Japan (chronic disinflation) is a different beast than the US.
  5. Key section of the Eleventh Cir. panel opinion (in addition to the standing argument that Trump had no property right to the documents). No doubt the threat of prosecution can weigh heavily on the mind of someone under investigation. But without diminishing the seriousness of that burden, "if the mere threat of prosecution were allowed to constitute irreparable harm . . . every potential defendant could point to the same harm and invoke the equitable powers of the district court." United States v. Search of Law Office, Residence, and Storage Unit Alan Brown, 341 F.3d 404, 415 (5th Cir. 2003) (quotation omitted). If this concern were sufficient to constitute irreparable harm, courts' "exercise of [their] equitable jurisdiction would not be extraordinary, but instead quite ordinary." Id. Cannon should be embarrassed.
  6. Global supply chain pressure remains elevated, but easing according to Fed Stats: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview
  7. I have probably been the fiercest critic of the promoters’ case for crypto here. But I see no need to kick investors when they are down. Pain is pain. If the promoters start calling crypto a hedge against de-flation, my venom for the bullshit they spew will return.
  8. Missing the third leg of the stagflation triad: high unemployment. Yield curve is signaling recession in 2023. FedEx data concurs. Fed prefers recession to soaring inflation.
  9. All the Fed can see is data indicating this is a good time to raise rates in the fight against inflation. Low unemployment rate and sticky CPI bloat. Add in stronger USD, oil down, and inverted yield curve. Situation Normal: All Fucked Up.
  10. Even Quentin Tarantino couldn’t get a chubbie.
  11. Recession was always anticipated when J Pow turned into a hawk. The question became whether the US would have a soft oe hard landing. Data now suggests a hard landing. FedEx and 2 year are harvingers of a hard landing - globally.
  12. Patagonia milfs are my sweet spot. And F the haters. Nice move by Yves. He walks the walk.
  13. It doesn't always work. Why would a purchaser buy today when it will be cheaper tomorrow? See Japan 1990’s to 2000’s. It leads to a deflarionary spiral:
  14. Rate hikes are a blunt tool with spill over effects - and disinflationary. Cathie Wood and Elon Musk are warning of deflation with the rate hikes (Wood’s argument on the collapse of used car values is interesting). The inverted 2/30 yield curve signals a recession in 6-9 months. From a monetary perspective, deflation is more difficult to control than inflation. The Fed knows this.
  15. Liberty Institute whiner in the Business School (no surprise there). His whining about the “Liberty” Institute. https://www.aier.org/article/how-ut-austin-administrators-destroyed-an-intellectual-diversity-initiative/ so fragile . . .
  16. JPM David Kelly says the market is overreacting - all is well.
  17. If 75 is already baked in, 100 may be in play. Global hard landing should be priced in. J Pow promised pain. Watch your cornholes.
  18. The scary news today was the layoffs at Goldman Sachs. The little discarded vampire squid will spread their contagion whenever they land. Only thing worse than a GS cast-off is a discharged McKinsey sociopath. just an opinion, of course. No offense intended. Tomorrow is the big day for CPI data. Good luck out there.
  19. USD down/markets up All eyes on CPI data tomorrow. Reading the tea leaves on where the Fed will stop hikes and QT. Some think J Pow is a chicken hawk. J Pow is caught in a cosplay costume.
  20. Agree. @TwiceHorn is exposing the gaps that should be strengthened and providing efficient avenues for attaining a conviction. My problem with the Judge’s order was her use of her equitable powers in a criminal investigation requested by a party with unclean hands. I do not believe the court had equitable jurisdiction here. First, principles of equity generally forbid use of equitable powers in criminal proceedings. The Younger decision is a limiting instruction on when equity can be used, not a broad loophole for a court Second, those requesting equitable relief must have clean hands. The former President’s are unclean (and tiny). Intermingling these classified documents with personal effects bars the use of the court’s equitable power as that act is illegal. Third, the former President must possess a property interest in the Presidential documents seized to have standing to request equitable relief. If there is substantial doubt on whether he has a property right, the court should not use its equitable powers. There is certainly substantial doubt whether the former President has any property right in the seized classified materials. The commingling of classified material with personal items is one of the crimes under investigation. The seizure of those personal items was allowed under the search warrant and a element of the commingling crime. tldr: the court did not have jurisdiction to use its equitable powers to fashion a remedy in this proceeding. Law, not equity, runs the show in criminal investigations.
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