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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. ‘There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”’ - Isaac Asimov, 1980.
  2. “Imposed” is spot on. The efficiency gains from decades of neoliberal economic policy are crumbling. On-shoring will become more important for American economic stability.
  3. GB with a 10% inflation rate. The US is the prettiest ugly chick at closing time right now.
  4. Explain ultra-accommodative Fed with minimal GDP growth.
  5. A reminder of what normal transitions looked like before Trump:
  6. Bad news is good news for the markets. As the risk of recession grows (hard landing), the Fed should slow down or pause rate hikes. The rub is the Fed is a little touchy about its reputation as dovish, which raises the possibility the Fed will stick to its hawkish stance longer than merited by actual conditions - worsening any downturn. To the Fed, inflation is worse than recession. Your mileage may vary.
  7. “Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings hast thou ordained strength because of thine enemies . . .”. The animal spirits play a large role with inflation. It is known. Cost-push or demand-pull inflation is fought with the same tool: demand destruction.
  8. Not really. More supply chain trouble in China ahead. Butterfly flapping wings in China affects globalized capitalism. Same as it ever was - since 1980.
  9. China has the flu. More supply chain trouble ahead.
  10. “Eugenics without a mandate.”
  11. Treason would depend on what he did with the information. Too early to conclude whether treason is on the menu.
  12. Transitory? Everything is transitory if you.give it enough time.
  13. As a Texpatriate, Beto gets my support. Texas has descended into a dystopian reality that would be comical if real people were not in the line of fire. It is due for a correction before it is fully regarded as a joke. If I could ask one thing of Beto is that he stand with two feet on the ground when making a point. He presents as shifty when he wildly animates his words. The words get lost when the mind attempts to translate the gestures. It is a small criticism and certainly not a substantive complaint. He is miles better than the alternative.
  14. The Fed put and has become the Fed call?
  15. So - Inflation was transitory, or, is this technical bull market transitory?
  16. Trumpers are going after the Magistrate who signed the search warrant. An example: The undoctored photo:
  17. Not that I disagree (because I agree with you), but this is an example of Bulverism. PPP was trickle down. Art Laffer continues to speak at Chamber of Commerce meetings. Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy were trickle down and remain on the books. Trickle down economics a big lie, fake news, bullshit. The data is clear. Anyone subscribing to supply-side economics from Reagan and Thatcher to Larry Kudlow and Trump are not heroes. They are/were bullshit artists making money for their rich donors.
  18. Can we all agree Trickle Down (tax cuts for the rich) is a bullshit theory? https://academic.oup.com/ser/article/20/2/539/6500315?login=false Abstract The last 50 years has seen a dramatic decline in taxes on the rich across the advanced democracies. There is still fervent debate in both political and academic circles, however, about the economic consequences of this sweeping change in tax policy. This article contributes to this debate by utilizing a newly constructed indicator of taxes on the rich to identify all instances of major tax reductions on the rich in 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries between 1965 and 2015. We then estimate the average effects of these major tax reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We find tax cuts for the rich lead to higher income inequality in both the short- and medium-term. In contrast, such reforms do not have any significant effect on economic growth or unemployment. Our results therefore provide strong evidence against the influential political–economic idea that tax cuts for the rich ‘trickle down’ to boost the wider economy.
  19. Signs of demand destruction, but still inflating faster than wage growth. Consumers using more credit at elevating interest rates. Fed selloff of MBS well under their self-imposed caps (thanks @bernorange).
  20. What a dumb fuck.
  21. Biden and the Generals preferred the Speaker of the House not go. She went anyway. It is what it is. We deal with the consequences from this unforced error.
  22. Revive the intermediate nuclear missile ban; Remove the nuke missiles from Poland with Russia removing same intermediate range missiles away from NATO nations; Putin-Biden Summit and agree Ukraine shall be neutral; Put Nord Stream 2 into operation. War is failure. I come to this view as a member of a career military family. Think of those in harm’a way, first and always.
  23. Bad news is good news for Fed to pivot? More importantly, evidence of demand destruction by design through rate hikes.
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