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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. DeSantis must be pissed right now . . . Right?
  2. The FBI is investigating the use of welfare funds to pay Farve for speeches he did not give and the construction of a USM volleyball complex where Farve’s daughter played. https://mississippitoday.org/2022/04/04/phil-bryant-brett-favre-welfare-scandal-payout/ Mississippi remains a shit stain of a state.
  3. Markets hoping for the predicted “Fed pause” after the next hike given the jobs numbers today. Next CPI report (Sep 13) looms large in that wager. I think a .75 hike is most likely as the Fed races for what they think is a neutral rate. The jobs number was mixed for Fed purposes.
  4. The subject is 2022 inflation, not 2020 monetary and fiscal stimulus. In the last quarter - Demand for goods slowed, but profits rose in a percentage greater than the go-go 90’s. Declining demand/spending in 2022. Inventories up in 2022 Profits: Again - 2022 - profits up, despite greater inventories, less spending and less demand. But keep fucking that chicken - by all means.
  5. Perhaps corporate profits are a key driver of inflation? Pre-tax: Post-tax: Capitalism requires competition on price to function efficiently. A “free market” does not equate to a “competitive market.”
  6. You’ve got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know. . . morons.
  7. Well deserved Nobel Peace Prize winner. Gorby > Yeltsin > Putin
  8. good news = bad news (?) https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence J Powell is getting very angry.
  9. Dove Fed Neil Kashkari happy with stock market plunge - “market understands the Fed is serious about inflation.” https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/feds-kashkari-happy-with-market-reaction-to-powell-speech-bloomberg/ar-AA11fv7I?fromMaestro=true Fed Thomas Barkin confirms inflation reduction is job one for Fed. tldr - “Dread the Angry Dove.”
  10. You know everything is a dildo if you are brave enough.
  11. Sorry @jimmyjazz i should have provided the data link. Here you go: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
  12. Velocity of money tells the story. Check out the uptick in inflation as velocity picks up. The trillions transferred to the wealthy idles was not inflationary (they tend to hoard and shelter, not spend). Give money to normals, and they spend it, usually out of necessity or perceived necessity. As for the Bush cuts, the PPP silliness made mincemeat of my argument in the early 2000’s. The lumpenproletariat business owners, with limited exceptions, care little about community or economy building; they just want to head out on a Carnival Cruise and gorge on all you can eat offerings of slop and gruel.
  13. We killed off the Philips Curve over the last two decades. Unequal distribution of wealth broke the model.
  14. J Powell chooses pain to combat inflation. The Fed will pursue lower wages and greater unemployment to slay the inflation dragon.
  15. Further disinflationary trend in single family homes: “Blackstone Single-Family Landlord to Halt Home Purchases in 38 Cities. Home Partners of America to press pause beginning Sept. 1. Company cites home price growth, market demand, regulations. Home Partners of America, the single-family landlord owned by Blackstone Inc., will stop buying homes in 38 US cities, becoming the latest institutional investor to back away from an overheated housing market. The company, acquired by Blackstone in June 2021 for $6 billion, told customers that as of Sept. 1, it is pausing applications and property submissions in Boise, Idaho; Fresno, California; Memphis, Tennessee, and 25 other areas. It will go on hiatus in 10 additional cities on Oct. 1. “ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25/blackstone-single-family-landlord-to-halt-purchases-in-38-cities
  16. All eyes on Jackson Hole tomorrow. Newly minted hawk, J. Powell, will signal: a. “damn the recession, full pain ahead” b. “Incoming pivot” c. “Let’s pause“ - and/or - d. “I feel lovey-dovey again.” I think he will try to convince his audience that he is a alpha-hawk - and his audience will sense he is a beta-cuck as soon as big capital wants easy money and bail outs again.
  17. Those benefitting have not been paying for two years. Where is the “gasoline on the fire”/money they will suddenly be redirecting to stoke inflation? Further, those who have not been paying, but owe more than $10K, must begin paying down those loans after this “last” deferment ends. That is deflationary. tldr: Furman gets paid for scaremongering about the debt and deficit. That’s his job now. Know your sources.
  18. If a person has Peterson Institute or PIIE in their bio, the person will reach the wrong conclusion most of the time. https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/jason-furman
  19. Cocky without a cause. Every vote counts. Humility is a virtue, not a vice. Show the economics to prove why there is virtue in this action. It is not difficult:
  20. Inflationary, but with the Fed implementing hawkish and austere rate hikes, I see no contrary effect on diminishing liquidity and demand destruction with this action. The Fed’s tools for combating inflation are working. This inflationary tailwinds of this action are not enough to temper the disinflationary headwinds stoked by the Fed. I will add for the incrementalists, “means testing” ensures there will be political conflict over the measure. That’s dumb in my opinion, but on brand for those who see Washington as an opportunity to cosplay the “West Wing.” You know who you are.
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