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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. PCE came in hot. No basis for Fed to begin dovish pivot with PCE data. UMich is next data point ahead.
  2. CPAC hosting Nazis. Color me surprised. Orban, Stephen Miller and Majorie Taylor Greene are scheduled to speak. A regular who’s who of white nationalism.
  3. When interest rate hikes rise to the level that make mortgages unaffordable, people will need apartments.
  4. Copper is a good bellwether for global economic health.
  5. Recession is determined by the NBER. The NBER defines “recession” as: GDP “estimates” are often revised: NBER will make final determination after GDP numbers are finalized. More importantly, the economy of the US (and the world) is slowing. The Fed is intentionally slowing the US and world economy to fight inflation (via rate hikes and reducing its balance sheet). The Fed is willing to risk recession in order to defeat inflation. Everything else is politics - and not a proper topic for the 6th Street Journal. Take it to the Cloak Room.
  6. Market counting on a Fed Pivot. I don’t see it.
  7. Recession is inevitable unless the Fed pivots. I don’t believe the Fed can pivot with its objective of 2% inflation. The tools to defeat cost-push inflation unfortunately disproportionately hit Main Street with fierce pain.
  8. Fed pivot from restrictive rate hikes will not occur until 6% unemployment rate if history is any guide.
  9. World recession + strong USD = Bullet with butterfly wings
  10. The services PMI drop in perspective:
  11. Services PMI print ugly. Steep drop. Fed anti-inflation tools bringing the pain, as expected. Cure worse than the disease?
  12. All the way from where we came Built a mansion in a day Distant lightning, thunder claps Watched our neighbor's house collapse Looked the other way Fate don’t fail me now . . .
  13. The Fed’s tools to combat inflation are working: Deflationary headwinds strengthen.
  14. Imminent annihilation sounds so dope . . .
  15. Intel does not care for your tone, comrade. From each according to its relative power; to each according to its lobbying power. Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, 558 U.S. 310 (2010)
  16. Back to inflation - the strong USD created by the Fed is forcing other central banks to raise rates or face imminent annihilation via inflation.
  17. Socialism is profitable in “Capitalist” America if one buys enough politicians. https://news.utexas.edu/2020/03/25/proposed-bailout-is-socialism-for-the-rich/
  18. I like this ad
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