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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. You would enjoy the paper. It is thorough. It’s only 28 pages. The remaining 19 pages are citations to data and prior studies. It’s an easy read. To your point, it’s not a political discussion, so your preference for direct transfers to employers is not part of the issues studied. It is merely compiled data and analysis with policy recommendations when this tool is used in the future. Here is the abstract: The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provided small businesses with roughly $800 billion dollars in uncollateralized, low-interest loans during the pandemic, almost all of which will be forgiven. With 93 percent of small businesses ultimately receiving one or more loans, the PPP nearly saturated its market in just two months. We estimate that the program cumulatively preserved between 2 and 3 million job-years of employment over 14 months at a cost of $170K to $257K per job-year retained. These estimates imply that only 23 to 34 percent of PPP dollars went directly to workers who would otherwise have lost jobs; the balance flowed to business owners and shareholders, including creditors and suppliers of PPP-receiving firms. Program incidence was highly regressive, with about three-quarters of PPP funds accruing to the top quintile of households. This compares unfavorably to the other two major pandemic aid programs, enhanced UI benefits and Economic Impact Payments (i.e. stimulus checks). PPP’s breakneck scale-up, its high cost per job saved, and its regressive incidence have a common origin: PPP was essentially untargeted because the United States lacked the administrative infrastructure to do otherwise. The more targeted pandemic business aid programs deployed by other high-income countries exemplify what is feasible with better administrative systems. Building similar capacity in the U.S. would enable greatly improved targeting of either employment subsidies or business liquidity when the next pandemic or other large-scale economic emergency occurs, as it surely will. PPP was far less effective and much more costly than the UI in saving jobs. PPP transfer payments to businesses came at a cost of $258,000 per job. That’s ridiculous. As for prosecutions, here is the data from the DOJ. I hope you are right about catching all the bad actors. https://www.justice.gov/criminal-fraud/cares-act-fraud For those who received PPP loans and bemoan all the Commies and Socialists, may they remove the planks from their eyes. That is not directed at you Doc.
  2. You should read the working paper on the effectiveness and efficiency of PPP that provides the data for this chart. I linked it below. We now have enough data to study the effectiveness and efficiency of PPP. And please let me know if that answers your question. I would appreciate your perspective when you have the time to read it. It’s a full access working paper available through MIT. I found it illuminating. https://economics.mit.edu/files/22761
  3. Well said. Musk produces goods and puts his capital to work. Efficiency, reliability and reusability are all net positives. His messaging lately has been boorish - but that is a simple fix. He needs to invest in some better and fresher perspectives, in my opinion. He is going to need help when the China pivot reaches the breaking point. He could be instrumental in preventing a foolish escalation between China and the West. In the United States, he could make a real difference in lives at the granular level. Again, he needs fresh perspectives, in my opinion. Hell, if old Vulture Capitalist Warren Buffett can maintain a positive public image, so can Musk.
  4. And for the trumpers - nootropics might snap the wiser among you to finally snap out it. Consult a specialist, of course.
  5. Every accusation for these β€œfake ass libertarians” is an admission of guilt.
  6. The welfare kings in United States: Did any of you PPP takers pay it back? That was a direct transfer of money to you.
  7. Jenny, I am not a smart man. Wordle 237 4/6 β¬›πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ©β¬› β¬›πŸŸ©β¬›πŸŸ©β¬› πŸŸ¨πŸŸ©β¬›β¬›πŸŸ¨ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  8. Is the a bot that can automatically assemble YouTube/AppleMusic/Spotify playlists of the music referenced in this thread? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
  9. Link to the polling data: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21201827/cnn-poll-on-biden-approval-rating-januaryfebruary-2022.pdf
  10. note the first sentence. I don’t expect the trumpers to understand. The RNC sent out this erroneous talking point. 56% of those who disapprove of Biden’s performance believe he has done nothing right. And trumpers backing an erroneous CNN report was not on my bingo card. CNN admitted their report was mishandled when broadcast. Do better.
  11. Forgot the link; my apologies. From MIT - https://economics.mit.edu/files/22761
  12. Every accusation is a confession for trumpers
  13. Guess which humans received the bulk of that spending.
  14. Watch β€œPhantom Thread” - Paul Thomas Anderson film.
  15. Last I saw, he moved to Taos with his bike and golf clubs.
  16. U G L Y - I ain’t got no alibi - it’s ugly, hey hey, it’s ugly. Wordle 236 6/6 πŸŸ¨β¬›β¬›πŸŸ¨β¬› β¬›πŸŸ¨πŸŸ¨β¬›πŸŸ¨ πŸŸ¨β¬›πŸŸ¨πŸŸ¨β¬› β¬›πŸŸ©πŸŸ¨πŸŸ¨β¬› β¬›πŸŸ©πŸŸ©πŸŸ©πŸŸ© 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  17. Here is the last 20 seconds of the Morris video:
  18. By the way, fuck the Morris twins. End of message.
  19. I know deaths is a lagging indicator - but . . . we are losing so many to COVID currently. My cognitive dissonance is in overdrive.
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