Won't reiterate all of the rationale already well-explained by others as to why we would have almost surely heard insider reports of a solid "no" by now. However, I'm firmly in the camp that the fact we have not heard such reports, coupled with the mountain of very weird circumstantial data (yes, including flight aware) + reports speaking to sourced-info re the possibility of Urban taking the job being put out by journalists and other outlets that extend beyond our typical 9.95'ers, means that this thing is likely happening (in a good way).
Re parallels to the 2013 Saban debacle, I closely followed the equivalent thread over on surly at the time and do not recall near this scope of non-9.95er input, circumstantial evidence or base of people (reporters, fans, etc.) that took it seriously - hell, most don't believe Saban to TX was about a FUPM-tit away from going down. Not to mention the contrast the contrast in alignment and competence of UT's admin branches/donors then vs. now.
Just saying, though I wouldn't say I'm injecting the kool-aid quite yet and maybe I'm gullible, but at this point I'd be pretty surprised if Urban isn't our next coach.