J.R.

Tend to agree with the advice of skip expensive rehab (go to detox if medically necessary), establish duration of sobriety necessary to move to sober living, and absolutely move to sober living for a long time and go to AA regularly. The sober living part is key for both SIL and BIL.

I dont think it will take decades. The next 10 years will be rough on them, but do agree with the sentiment. Almost always better to walk down there and make sure you dont miss any choice meat.

There is no action required here other than to extract what we can while China's own existential demographic issues inexorably play out.

Anybody got a link for a decent stream

No av gas. Just a specific cut of the right kind of kerosene straight off the crude column.

They wouldn’t have had any problem whatsoever making jet fuel in 1942. It’s just kerosene.

The shortsightedness here is the assumption that there are limited investment dollars for anything that makes economic and reliable sense. While I would say the investment landscape is tilted somewhat in favor of renewables (probably wise) trust me when I tell you that Americans are very industrious and if there is some nook or cranny anywhere in this giant economy that hasn’t been exploited like an instagram model on Pee in Her Butt, they will find it soon (fossil or renewable) with TONS of newly printed capital to follow. It is really amazing to watch.

Generally I think the enemy is still in the middle of making a big mistake and NATO is wisely not doing anything to interrupt him. I am not intending to minimize the suffering, but the suffering would likely be expanded if we sought to interrupt this mistake.

I don’t think a discussion of Thucydides is too political but I think it’s wishful thinking on Russia’s part to imagine itself as a strong nation who can do it will. Nukes included, there are much stronger nations and the long arc of history does not suggest that significant even superior weaponry makes you somehow immune from catastrophic nation state collapses.

Agree that they are going to play the middle. Do not underestimate their desire for fellow travelers on the road away from democracy and western ideals. They certainly will not overtly fuck over Russia. It’ll be a 100+ year plan.

Could you sum up the last couple pages by saying: never underestimate a small, unconstrained force with excellent leadership (and I mean both internally and from foreign “advisors” in this case) against a large, inept bureaucracy. None of this is very surprising in that context, except perhaps the extent of the ineptitude.

Hah I think he meant Afghanistan

If this is his aim (which I do not think it is) his execution is comically bad. This on-off methodology will only push his neighbors towards the west and democracy during the off times which is the opposite of what he wants. I do agree he expected a rapid conclusion to this matter and now that is obviously off the table but I think the final objective was much larger and I doubt this setback stops him. I expect his to go whole hog now and who knows where it leads us.

Prepare for global conflict and make it clear to Putin and everyone near him you are prepared to totally destroy his country if he doesn’t come to the table. Do everything possible to limit his ability and willingness to use nukes but be ready to go all in. I don’t like it but if he’s determined to be the next major enemy of democracy than he’ll need to end up like his predecessors and the cost to us is not really up to us. We will pay the price regardless.

I do not agree. It seems that most simply believe arming the brave Ukrainians will drag Putin into an unwinnable quagmire and he will retreat to his lair to plan another, probably worse, offensive in a few years. He hates, and more importantly, fears democracy and he can see things slipping away from him towards western influence as he nears his sunset years. I believe he will try to set things way back and, if not, go out with a big, big bang and I don’t think people have wrapped their minds around this seemingly likely outcome.