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lemonlime

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Everything posted by lemonlime

  1. That's what they want. The men enacting these laws know their wives, daughters, and mistresses, will just be able to travel to NY or CA and get an abortion. But they want more poor people and more crime. The cruelty is the point. https://law.stanford.edu/publications/the-impact-of-legalized-abortion-on-crime-over-the-last-two-decades/. More crime is the goal. They know legal abortion leads to less crime. Donohue and Levitt (2001) presented evidence that the legalization of abortion in the early 1970s played an important role in the crime drop of the 1990s. That paper concluded with a strong out-of-sample prediction regarding the next two decades: “When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1% a year in crime over the next two decades.” Estimating parallel specifications to the original paper, but using the seventeen years of data generated after that paper was written, we find strong support for the prediction and the broad hypothesis, while illuminating some previously unrecognized patterns of crime and arrests. We estimate that overall crime fell 17.5% from 1998 to 2014 due to legalized abortion— a decline of 1% per year. From 1991 to 2014, the violent and property crime rates each fell by 50%. Legalized abortion is estimated to have reduced violent crime by 47% and property crime by 33% over this period, and thus can explain most of the observed crime decline.
  2. At least what I've been reacting to in what you're saying, is that you're proactively justifying something that is simply the wrong decision. If I'm being honest, I don't know how I'd react in the moment with a stranger shouting they'd been shot, at night, outside my door. But I'd certainly like to believe that I would do everything I could to help that kid. And I can't imagine spending pages justifying a hypothetical decision to let a kid bleed out on my lawn. Regardless of what hypothetical excuses I could dream up.
  3. Yes. In numbers' cherrypicking data from CA and TX from a time period before TX even had concealed carry.
  4. Yes. But what about when George HW Bush was president, smarty pants?
  5. Not sure if serious. But yes. California and NY have lower homicide rates than Texas. And these charts go back to 2005. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm
  6. Yeah. I edited my post. Misread the date in the article. Although I would still think shooting a kid in the head for no reason would, you know, lead to an immediate arrest for the safety of the community.
  7. What in the actual fuck? It takes time to decide whether to charge someone with attempted murder who shot a kid in the head twice for knocking on his door. They know damn well if it was a white kid shot by a black man, the shooter would've been arrested, and sitting. in jail, and facing a life in prison. Also, the Clay County Prosecutor Zachary Thompson said Monday that his office is working with police to quickly review the case and determine if the homeowner should be charged.
  8. Pretty much. Just realized the earlier link didn't say what the problem was. It's the vertical stabilizer fittings. https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/new-production-issue-will-delay-737-max-deliveries-require
  9. This. I was just looking at those lists and it's striking. What do 9 out of 10 of the states with the lowest firearm mortality rate have in common? And what do 9 out of 10 states with the highest firearm mortality have in common? It's a mystery for the ages. That said, I don't know how to separate out how much of that breakdown has to do with gun control laws verses that the bulk of elected reps and the public in those states isn't fetishizing guns, and there aren't large swaths of people too terrified of the world to go for a walk without packing heat.
  10. I think the reality of that is what made it an emotional slog. How you react when a family member you're estranged from dies, or when you have no fucking clue what to say. While the extremes Logan went to against his kids are, I hope, not usual, the reactions to the death of someone with whom you have a complicated relationship with, and when you had no chance to repair it, seem much more real to and difficult to recover from in a lot of ways, then the typical tv death scene where a beloved family member dies.
  11. You're arguing with someone who thinks a successful deflection from his opinion (or support for politicians who hold this opinion) that the government is too incompetent to place restrictions on who can possess weapons of war, should be further entrusted to lock people who are presumed innocent in jail in government custody before trial.
  12. Well, if you're going to quote stats anecdotes, you're aware that in places with cash bail reform there's been no link shown between cash bail reform and recidivism/crime rates?
  13. That's their goal. Republicans don't actually give a shit about abortion. They want to punish women, particularly poor women. They don't want them to have access to quality healthcare, be it for abortion, pregnancy, oncology, anything. They want to gut healthcare. Just look at the right's vilification of medical professionals and science over the last few years as proof. They want to drive talented people out.
  14. Obviously amazing sites in Cairo. But the air quality was so bad when we there, it was hard to go outside. I have all these pictures at the Pyramids where it looks like it's a rainy, foggy, overcast day, just from huge amounts of smog. After I left for Aswan, had a lingering cough for a few days. But maybe I'm down on it because I really didn't explore much in Cairo. And our hotel was far from the Four Seasons. I was just jet lagged, having trouble breathing, and wanted to get further afield. Edit to add that I loved the rest of our time in Egypt, but Cairo was difficult.
  15. Unless he dies, Trump will be the nominee. And regardless of whether he is the 47th president, he will "win" the election, and bring the country down with him.
  16. Any suggestions for what to do with 1-2 days in London? I've been there before, and have been to many of the touristy things like the Tower and Westminster, but it's been many years. About to leave on a business trip there, and I'll have maybe a day or so at the end of free time.
  17. For how many years have people been commenting on dotard melting down on Twitter or Truth Social? His melt downs don't signify jack shit.
  18. NYPD is MAGA. There is no matchup.
  19. The police will be joining the side of the protesters.
  20. Lol. Probably. Except he's one of the few on my ignore list.
  21. Ok. Fair enough. I saw the wall of text pontificating on race relations and may have overthought things.
  22. Is SL Express Tahoe?
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