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Larry T. Spider

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Everything posted by Larry T. Spider

  1. Larry T. Spider
    The suburbs are becoming much more diverse and I think that will upend some of the social situations. It 100% will have an impact on the politics. It’s a big reason why my western wilco district went from reliably red to having a blue state rep. That trend is just heating up and will hopefully completely trash the republican gerrymandering. It’s only a matter of how fast that will happen. Raydog seems to think 2020 will be a good year for the Dems and has stats to support it. I say 2024 and nothing but cynicism to hang my hat on.
  2. Larry T. Spider
    My hope is that they are seeing that Texas is going blue faster than expected and just don’t want to deal with the fallout of it. I also buy lotto tickets, which are worth about as much as my dreaming.
  3. Larry T. Spider
    My wife has some health issues and it’s damn near a full time job dealing with doctors and insurance companies. I’m not sure how she would be able to do it if she had a more demanding job. She works from home and can work while she is on hold for 45 minutes at a time.
  4. Larry T. Spider
    People should be able to keep shotguns and rifles for hunting. I’m even ok with handguns for home defense that must be left at home. All the open carry, driving around with guns, and any type of AK/AR weapon needs to go. I would give people 6 months to sell their “assault weapon” then it’s 10 years in jail for possession of one and life for selling one. It’s way past time to end these mass shootings.
  5. Larry T. Spider
    I’m assuming county because Hays county is the one that caved to pressure during the Texas state mess.
  6. Larry T. Spider
    I guess that brings up another question. How does intentional voter suppression factor into the predictions? Rural voting locations aren’t going to have long lines even with the changes. Retired people can go at off times or just wait all day. Single working moms will see a line and know that daycare is closing in an hour and that they will never make it. GOTV efforts are going to have to push early voting harder than ever. Dems also need to push for as many polling locations as possible and for them to stay open as long as possible. Texas State had one but it was only open for two days then closed until people went to the media with it. The location was eventually reopened but how many times did that happen and we never heard about it?
  7. Larry T. Spider
    That last paragraph is crazy. You seem more bullish on 2020 being the year things flip the things start looking really good by 2024. I don’t want to get ahead of myself but it seems like Texas could be purple for only a few election cycles.
  8. Larry T. Spider
    Some unanswerable questions that remain in relation to the info raydog posted: Do the people moving to the major metro areas vote dem at the same rate that the current residents do? Do they turn out at the same rate as current residents? 2018 makes the trend look really promising but was it an outlier? Beto drove turnout against a complete turd. As stated by others, the removal of the straight ticket option is a wild card. Republicans clearly think this is to their advantage. I’m not so sure, especially regarding trump, but we will see. Its hard data to quantify but I actually think the rate at which old, white, reliable republican voters are dying is being underplayed, especially for non-presidential years. These people vote in every election. I just look at my own extended family and know that 50% of the republican voters likely won’t be around in 2024.
  9. Larry T. Spider
    It’s our fault. We made them do it. But also personal responsibility.
  10. Larry T. Spider
    It’s not great but this is a blip on the radar. She has enough of a track record over the last 20 year to where people know what she is all about. Also, about 1% of the population even knows about stuff like the conservative groups warren spoke to 25 years ago. Hell, 75% of the population probably doesn’t even know who she is yet.
  11. Larry T. Spider
    Do you find him shallow and pedantic?
  12. Larry T. Spider
    The text of that tweet is so spot on.
  13. Larry T. Spider
    My sports book put this up today. I’m really surprised. ODDS TO WIN 2020 PRESIDENTIAL RACE Republicans -120 Democrats -120
  14. Larry T. Spider
    Exact same thing for me. Lifelong Texas Republican until around 2011. I remember the specific moment that they lost me. I was driving home from work at an elementary school where we just told a bunch of hopeful, first year teachers that they didn’t have a job because the legislature cut our budget significantly. Our superintendent at the time was a budget master and had been a CPA before getting into education. He cut everything possible (25% of the admin building) and even found ways to make money for the district. He even started selling ads on the sides of busses to try to keep as many teachers as he could. I got in the car and rick Perry was on the radio blaming superintendents for teacher layoffs. It was absolutely unreal considering the situation. Patrick and the rest of the clowns continuing to embarrass the state was the nail in the coffin. As time has gone on I’ve really come to hate the GOP.
  15. Larry T. Spider
    We are going to end up with a dan patrick type in the house aren’t we?
  16. Larry T. Spider
    I counted 3 trump votes or no votes in the presidential election.
  17. Larry T. Spider
    I don’t want to live in a world where half of independents pick dotard over warren.
  18. Larry T. Spider
    And this surprises exactly....nobody.
  19. Larry T. Spider
    At this point I’m wondering if joe even wants this. I’m hoping he doesn’t and drops out after doing poorly in the first few states and polling drops.
  20. Larry T. Spider
    What a terribly weak answer from Harris. She’s always trying to say the right thing even when the obvious answer is right in front of her face. I have zero confidence that she will take trump to task as she claims she will.
  21. Larry T. Spider
    I have no doubt that the democratic nominee will win the popular vote by more than HRC did. Wisconsin giving the electoral college to trump scares the shit out of me. I also wonder if we will see a Bradley effect in polls. People know trump is a terrible human and might be reluctant to say they are voting for him. I’m not talking about the true believers but the right leaning people that just can’t pull the lever for a D.
  22. Larry T. Spider
    It’s a bit early but we need to get organized and start funneling cash into the correct races. How good is polling for Texas house races? Also, how many of them are set up with act blue? Bucy, my rep, did a fantastic job in his first term but he collected donations through a different site.
  23. Larry T. Spider
    Contrast this with trump’s reaction to tragedy. Tossing paper towels like basketballs, firing off ridiculous tweets, quick photo ops then bouncing. It would be so refreshing to have someone like beto or warren in the White House who genuinely cares about people going through the worst moments in their lives. The far right will find fault in anything they do but it will still shift the rest of the country back to valuing humanity a tiny bit more.
  24. Larry T. Spider
    I’ve heard the fried chicken is good. I’m not much for boycotts but food doesn’t taste quite as good with the Cheeto dick aftertaste.
  25. Larry T. Spider
    For those that don’t know the context, the bill millers owner is a max trump donor. Abbott is a cuck.

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