Observations from Stuart Mandel:
Florida State’s lawyers did not throw together that lawsuit overnight. They’ve been doing their due diligence for at least a year or longer. So, you might assume the school had some assurance of an attractive landing spot before opting to go scorched earth on its conference.
But to Jeremy’s point, I can’t imagine SEC commissioner Greg Sankey wants anything to do with FSU’s pot-stirring ways. He also doesn’t need the ‘Noles. He already has the flagship university in the state of Florida, along with a half-dozen other schools with as much or more brand cachet. The Big Ten makes more sense as a home for FSU since it has already shown it’s willing to bend all geographic barriers. Plus its main partner, Fox, currently has no presence in the Southeast. It’s also not currently facing an existential crisis in its business like ESPN.
But I believe FSU is mostly betting on itself and its ability to command value in whatever the next iteration of college football might look like. To that end, FSU has for some time been seeking a private equity partner to fund this whole endeavor. In the meantime, the school is making its relationship with the ACC untenable to the point where the league may soon have no choice but to negotiate some sort of reduced-fee exit.
If/when that day comes, I see one of three scenarios happening:
The Big Ten comes calling. Fox — less streaming-dependent than ESPN — happily writes the check.
FSU brings along Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, etc., and forms a new football conference that, by stripping out the bottom half, commands more dollars per school than the current ACC.