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Hermanator

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Everything posted by Hermanator

  1. Holy shit that looks tight. She needs about 58 to 60 percent of that if those numbers are correct to win the state and deal a big blow to trump
  2. If you'd met my wife's family you'd know. They college educated ones break mostly left with a couple of outliers that break right out of greed and misconceptions. The non educated ones have zero idea what's going on. They vote trump because he's a celebrity and their juvenile selves find him funny. They have no idea what white nationalist fascism in the USA will do to them.
  3. I agree. I too wanted to believe in the humanity of Americans. This election, after the insurrection, stealing classified info, etc, sets the bar for American decency. There's no person in this country that can vote for trump after all that's happened in 8 years and not be deficient in humanity. We're all coming to grips with the fact that almost half of Americans are just plain shitty, stupid people. It's late stage democracy where the electorate has gorged on prosperity for so long it's become entitled, ignorant, and greedy.
  4. Approximately how many expected votes left uncounted in Georgia? 2 million?
  5. 4 years ago at this time I was feeling really depressed. Looked like Trump would run with it. Then the big cities in swing states caught up and he got run out of the race. The same processes and procedures are in play here as 4 years ago. Tell her to watch the margins in swing states. If she's outpacing Biden in enough urban counties she's winning.
  6. The only two people on the planet sweating this more than us are Putin and Zelenskyy. The outcome could mean life or death for them. Harris wins and Putin has no hope of ending Ukrainian support from the US. She could possibly even up the ante on him. The other way and Zelenskyy loses US funding and arms. Gives Putin the push he needs to overrun the country absent a major step up in aid from other NATO countries. The biggest mistake the Europeans made was disarming in the 80s to 2000s believing the stability and military power of the USA would be sufficient. We talked them into it and now 30 years later we're a stupid people who aren't capable of functioning properly and sitting on the most highly funded military on the planet. If I'm Germany and other countries like it I'm doing everything possible to ramp up nuclear arms production ASAP. At least have a dead man's switch threat to destroy the USA if it comes to it down the line under fascist rule.
  7. That has about as low a chance of happening I'd think.
  8. Wouldn't be surprised if this isn't Trump's people as well to slow down the count in certain areas. Try to get people to give up on voting as well. Everyone needs resolve to keep fighting.
  9. Too early to project swing states. For now I'm watching NC and Georgia. She takes both of those and it's pop the corks. Orange fucktard isn't sweeping PA, MI, and WI.
  10. As long as they're importing the deplorables from other states, especially swing states, I'm 100 percent ok with that. Gives me the opportunity to cheer for the hurricanes.
  11. I don't understand how Robinson's shit crazy behavior is a bridge too far for NC resident to the tune of a double digit win, but Trump and Vance's aren't? Bunch a fuckin' braindead terds in this country.
  12. Yeah that's useless. Completely depends on what counties are reporting. Rural or urban? Mostly rural report early because of lack of population, but maybe a metro Texas county reported a big drop and that temporarily put Texas blue. It's much ado about nothing. If those urban returns of Kamala outpacing Biden by 4 to 5 percent in Georgia are correct and hold for the last 20 percent she's getting Georgia. Not enough hicks in the sticks to make up the difference if those hold to that large of a margin difference.
  13. For tonight, fuck Texas. * Unless Allred wins ** Also fantastic irony the guy who beats Republican ass in Texas is named "All Red"
  14. Oh please, please... For the first time in my voting life make a non local vote of mine actually count for a win. Make that bitch eat shit for abandoning his state during the worst statewide disaster of our lifetimes.
  15. I'm perfectly happy to ship all these maga voting cunts to the state that now with global warming gets hit by 2-3 hurricanes a year.
  16. Would be amazing if the Biden admin and the State of NY set it up to have his release pending sentencing revoked for the death threats on Cheney. With the go ahead arrest and detainment to commence immediately after the election is decided for Harris.
  17. And you're 100 percent wrong. You've lost sight of what center is. Democrats have gone more towards the center while Republicans have gone so far off the map they're approaching Mars. Name Biden policies of the last 4 years that were far left of actual center. List them and explain why.
  18. He's a piece of shit. We'd all be better off
  19. These dumbasses are so bad at math they don't understand that telling their ghouls to only vote in person in 2020, and telling them the opposite this year, means they're going to have far less in person on election Day than in 2020. There's no one single extra voter for Trump this year than 4 years ago. A portion of his 2020 voters died from the pandemic or just old age. He's lost a lot of women, lost a lot of Puerto Ricans in a week, and is even losing some among men. There's no way enough uneducated black and Mexican-American men are going to make up the difference, especially in PA, WI, and MI. He's toast
  20. Of course she's going to be reasonably close to correct. She's the only one of these people actually controlling for bias in her sampling and aggregation. All the other shit that's been thrown out there is nonsense. Don't worry about much today, the only way this doesn't go to Harris is if the republicans figured out a way to corrupt the actual voting numbers in these swing states. But I think they would have to do it in at least 3 or 4. They're evil enough to try but not smart enough to get it done without being caught. Remember, any republican with brains bailed on this shit show after the insurrection. That's why there's no one left in that campaign with any intelligence or discipline, and trump spent the last 2 weeks calling Puerto Ricans garbage, dressing up in garbage man cosplay, and acting like his microphone was Putin's shrimpy dick.
  21. That's inventing demographics that don't exist. That's not incompetent, it's flat out nefarious. It's been quite the shocking revelation that something as big as the USA presidential election with all the billions of dollars tied up in the whole thing only has a single lady in bumbfuck Iowa that conducts representative sample election polls correctly.
  22. I'm not a statistician but I did have to take a few higher level probability and statistics courses for my undergrad 20 years ago. From what I remember the key to all of it is the quality of input data. That's a very difficult thing to obtain, but the majority of the work and attention to detail should be put into obtain as close to a representative sample as possible without poisoning with bias. If you put garbage data in you're going to get garbage data out. I don't follow election polling at all so don't know how they source their data, but it seems Selzer is the closest to quality data input by 20+ years of experience sourcing data from her smallish state. Then the only adjustments needed are adjusting the sample demographics to mirror the registered voter demographics. If these other pollsters are taking results they don't feel are quality enough and adjusting them to mirror prior results 4 years ago that's purely invalid, garbage data. That's omitting everything that's happened in the last 4 years. Which in this case is more change in this arena than I believe has ever happened in a 4 year period in the history of the country other than the civil war. What we need is about 10 Selzers, one for each of the swing states, that put all their effort and a scientific attention to detail into doing it the right way in their individual states. Right now all we have is one great sample and a shit ton of biased, garbage data it appears.
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