Perhaps not yet, but I bet that if we (NATO especially) hadn't responded to his invasion of Ukraine as strongly as we did, he would have been much less reticent to take on the Baltic states than he has to be now. Think back one year before the invasion. Did you think that Ukraine could or would make the stand that they have? Did you think that we would have backed Ukraine as we have? His overall strategy was formulated before he entered Ukraine to take Crimea, when these were unknowns, and his calculations did not seem unreasonable.
He was doing a very good job of dividing the US and NATO and sowing discord in Europe with non-military actions, which can be executed with little regard for demographics. Had he been successful in February and taken all of Ukraine, he would have regrouped, integrated Ukraine and all of its resources into Russia, and continued his "other than war" attacks. He just needed to be patient and continue his established course of action.
His mistake was taking military action that failed its initial objectives. War is dependent on sufficient population for both the army and keeping the economy going, especially if it is protracted. Think of Ukraine as his Pearl Harbor: he swung and missed, and it's disrupting his whole plan.