Twice - You’re actually trying to apply the law. Unfortunately, Kaz-Know-Nothing doesn’t actually care about the law. He thinks God wants him to grant a victory to Trump and he will rule for Trump.
As you rightly point out, that will ultimately go through the 5th Circuit which is the most wretched hive of scum and villainy since Mos Eisley. In a 2-1 decision, they will uphold the Amarillo Moron’s decision.
Now, we’re at the Supreme Court. Thomas and Alito will threaten to show up at Court every day open carrying ARs if the Court takes the case. Ultimately the Court takes the case and Trump loses a 5-4 decision with Roberts and ACB joining the 3 liberal justices. Thomas pens a dissent written in crayon and blood that Trump should be able to file this lawsuit in Texas because he sent some nice Russians to his house and they fixed his RV which had broken down in Nebraska.
This timeline sucks.