PencilPusher

Welp...all those trendlines from prior weeks just blew up spectacularly on a week that should have been boring. Where do we see the playoffs now? SEC is on the verge of potentially only having 3 teams from the league make the show as opposed to 4. That's what happens when standard bearers get punked by the likes of Vandy and Wooo Pig Sooie... teams that won't be anywhere near the Top 20 when all is said and done. You can forgive losses to other top teams in the league, but lose to a second/third tier league team puts more pressure on you to stack wins against better teams. Alabama still has roadies to Tennessee, LSU, and OU to come. Vols still have the Alabama game and a trip to Athens to come. One of these teams may not make the show after showing out pretty well in the month of September. In steps LSU and the Ags to the discussion but don't see either team making it out of the year with fewer than 3 losses. LSU has Ole Miss this weekend, a trip to Kroger Field, and Alabama still to go. The Aggies will do Aggie things and lose a couple between now and then. Big question...how many SEC teams end up with 3 losses and who gets the invite(s)? Hopefully the Longhorns learned something while watching the carnage this weekend on how to approach the remaining schedule, particularly after the Georgia game. Big 10 may benefit from the stumbles in the SEC last week as the league has 4 undefeated teams remaining and on balance the league is top to bottom worse than the SEC. Buckeyes/Ducks will be a good game but the loser would still be on track for a playoff spot. Watching Penn State head to USC...if Penn St wins, they should also have an inside track to a spot. If they lose (and with James Franklin on the sideline that is a reasonable possibility), maybe not. Indiana is the other team that should be watched. 4 of their last 6 at home and only Ohio State in Columbus is a ranked team in that schedule. It is not out of the realm of possibility that IU is 11-1 at the end of the season and is in the Big 10 championship game. If all 4 of Ohio State, Oregon, Penn St, and Indiana are 10-2 or better, can't see why they all wouldn't be in the playoffs. ACC still a 2 bid league with Clemson's resurgence and Miami's theatrics. Miami though feels like they might drop one (or more) they shouldn't given they could have easily lost the last 2 (and some argue should have) which could change the calculus here. Say hello to Pitt who is 5-0 but their back half schedule seems rife with loss opportunities for the Panthers. Is SMU a candidate? Their schedule is easier than Pitt and their close loss at home to BYU is looking pretty good right now. Still don't know what to make of the Big 12. Iowa State is undefeated and looks like the best candidate but sure seems like a lot of teams will have 3+ losses when all is said and done. The SEC chaos certainly benefits the Big 12 and its ability to get 2 teams in if they somehow end the season with 2 teams with 2 or fewer losses. One thing I do know...Oklahoma State and Kansas have to be the biggest disappointments in the league so far. Won't even suggest a G5 team for the show. However, here is an interesting thing I'll be rooting for. Since Army and Navy are 5-0, if they get through the AAC schedule undefeated, they could meet in the AAC championship game a week before their scheduled game. How is that going to work? Seems like we may need to move that game to Thanksgiving weekend in future years but boy wouldn't that be fun this year. Of course it probably won't happen because it would just be too incredible to comprehend. But here on week 7, it is fun speculation. Really only one game this weekend but since there are other teams playing I'll comment on a couple of games: Ohio State-Oregon: Big 10 finally has an interesting watchable matchup featuring ex Big 12 QB's. Either QB could end up being a hero or a goat, but to me Ohio State just seems more consistent and built to win a game like this on the road. Will Howard will show up and bite the Buckeyes in the ass...but not this week. LSU-Ole Miss: Big game for both teams and could be an elimination game for a playoff spot with both teams remaining schedules. Ole Miss got right last week but heads into Death Valley without having a lot of recent success there. Believe it or not, Ole Miss sports the better defense in this matchup which should give them the edge. However, Caden Durham has been a revelation for the TIgers and makes their offense more dangerous and will be able to test the Rebels. LSU's defense is quite mediocre and lacks playmakers so I will reluctantly take the Rebels though I expect lots of points. Penn St-USC - Just feels like a trap for the Nittany Lions. Neither coach is a "big game" coach by any stretch but Lincoln has more Top 25 scalps than Franklin does. Still Penn State's defense is really good and USC's has just leveled up to middling. So reluctantly take the Lions but won't be surprised if they lose and even lose bigly And now for the game...the only one that matters. Texas/OU - Always a 50/50 game and the Sooners start an unknown at QB. Normally that would be a bad sign for Texas, but in this game it is usually the guy that comes in during the game that causes the problem (see Williams, Caleb a couple of years ago), not the QB who starts the game. I suspect OU will have their usual assortment of chicanery for this game, but Texas is experienced, deep, and way better at QB and defense this year. Golden Hat returns to its rightful place

My trendlines from last week largely held up after Saturday's action SEC still is the league to beat so to speak...Alabama, Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee are definitely legit contenders. Ole Miss failed its first test against a defense with a pulse and is relegated to non-playoff postseason for now. Their game with LSU next weekend is an elimination game for the loser in terms of playoff viability. Mizzou has a chance to enter the chat this week if they roll into Kroger field and beat the Ags, who I continue to believe will gump their way to 9 wins just like they gumped their way to a win last week. A&M is not a top 25 team, but still get the benefit of the doubt for some unknown reason. Of course, if Mizzou reverts to well, Mizzou, they'll be out of the playoff discussion as well as their only other chance to get an impressive win will be at Alabama in November, which I think there is a low probability of that. The Big 10 is a distant second to the SEC right now and the league has been downright boring so far this year. Ohio State hasn't played anyone to date, Michigan got its ass handed to it by Texas, Oregon struggled early and something doesn't look quite right with that team, and Penn State still needs to prove they can beat Ohio State even though they got a solid win against Illinois last week. Not to mention the fact that their TV partners are not putting interesting matchups in key slots. Ohio State is probably the best team here and two of Oregon, Penn State, USC, Michigan or (gasp) Indiana will make the playoffs, but I'd short everyone but Ohio State on getting deep in the playoff. ACC looks to be a two team and likely 2 bid league. If Miami can escape Cal this weekend, its schedule is pretty damn favorable the rest of the way. Yes, they escaped VaTech on a controversial call on a Hail Mary, but they do have the best player in the ACC in Cam Ward and the only other team that can match them in conference looks like Clempson and they won't see them until the title game. Speaking of those Tigers, they really have been drinking the Tiger Blood as they have had a complete reversal of fortune since losing to Georgia and also have a favorable schedule. If 12-0 Miami and 11-1 Clemson are in the ACC title game, both make the playoffs. The Big 12 is on track to be a one bid league and they may severely test rule about top 4 conference champs get a bye as it is highly likely that a 3 loss Big 12 team makes the playoffs and gets a bye over a significantly better SEC (or maybe Big 10 team) who sits in the 5 seed spot. The conference lacks great QB's and dynamic playmakers (CU is the only team that has those, but doesn't have much of a team other than the playmakers) which will make every contest interesting (and probably draw decent ratings), but these teams are no match for the top of the SEC or the Big 10. Big 12 really needs Notre Dame to lose more (at least one before USC) to have a crack at two spots in the playoffs. As for the largely disappointing slate of games: Mizzou-A&M - Mizzou had a bye and has the better QB and skill position player and a solid defense. Despite what happened at home to Vandy, if Brady Cook, Luther Burden, and Eli Drinkwitz are who everyone thinks they are, they will leave College Station with a win Ole Miss- Lesser USC - Which Cocks and which Rebels team shows up. SC has a solid defensive front and Ole Miss struggled early with Kentuckys defense. Still, not yet ready to hop off the Lane Train and they need to win before heading to Death Valley next Saturday night. Miami - Cal - Was last week a fluke for Miami. Or are there problems that Cam Ward may not be able to overcome. Cal has the ignominious distinction of being FSU's only victim this season which means they can't be that good but Miami has generally not played well west of the Rockies and it is a looong trip. Miami should win but wouldn't be a complete shock to see the upset. Navy - Air Force - Not normally a game I would care about but with USMA and USNA both 4-0 together for the first time since WWII, an all academy battle is worthy of mention. I saw Air Force play earlier this season and they are not at the level of previous Falcon teams. Navy with the win and looking forward to a potential entertaining game with Army late in the year. If Army or Navy finishes the year 11-1 and wins the AAC...are they the Group of 5 participant in the playoff? Potential smaller story but I am sure we will all be following...

Since most teams are a third of the way through their schedule, some trends to watch as we get into the meat of conference season The likely winner of the 12 team playoff will come from the SEC. Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee all look the part so far this season. Ole Miss does too but need to see them play someone with a pulse in the SEC before adding them to the list. Mizzou is not a Top 10 team and are easily the odd man out in this scenario The only non-SEC teams that as of today could crash that party are Ohio St and Miami. Ohio State has been living on easy street, but their 2nd half of the season is a bit more rugged with trips to Oregon and Penn St and the season ender against Michigan still to come. Miami should coast to the ACC championship unless Cam Ward goes down...is Clempson their only obstacle in the way to a 1st round bye? As for the ACC and Big 12, one of these conferences may only get their champion in the playoff (and both leagues need to root hard for at least one more Notre Dame loss to avoid this scenario). The ACC is not a good league outside of Miami and perhaps Clemson. The Big 12 has more potential teams but way more parity. If Cam Rising comes back and stays healthy, Utah is probably the best team, but after that who knows. So far Iowa State and BYU look feisty, but everyone on this board knows that there isn't a lot that separates these teams and a whole lot of them will have 2-3 losses. League lacks P4 wins in non-conference (Iowa State and Ok State are the only teams to have one and only ISU's win in El Assico will stand the test of time) and that may be problematic going up against SEC and Big 10 powerhouses with much better resumes. Will continue to watch these trendlines... As for the games this week: Georgia-Alabama - Georgia has the most difficult conference slate of all of the aforementioned championship contenders with roadies to Bama, Texas, and Ole Miss and a home game with Tennessee. So this feels like a bit of a must win for GA as they have to go 2-2 in these four games against the other SEC contenders to have a shot at the playoff. Concern about GA's ability to run the ball and offensive playmakers which is why I like Bama here. Louisville-ND - If either team has playoff aspirations, this is a must win. Haven't seen much of Louisville but they did have a nice win over a solid GaTech team last week. Riley Leonard has been something of a disappointment for the Irish, particularly throwing the football and they have actually struggled with MAC teams at home this season. So I will not be surprised to see Louisville and former Techster Tyler Shough roll into Notre Dame Stadium and come out with a win, re-igniting the doubts about Marcus Freeman's ability to get the Irish to the level Brian Kelly had them. Illinois-Penn State - As mentioned above, sneaky good game as the Illini have their second consecutive roadie to open Big 10 play and a much taller order in Penn State. Illinois will hang with Penn State for a while, but the Penn State defense is still pretty good and Drew Allar is the best QB the Illini have seen so far...Penn State opens it up in the 2nd half and wins comfortably vaulting them potentially back in the discussion of being a real championship contender (despite the James Franklin coaching disadvantage). Ok State-K State - Elimination bowl for playoff possibilities as neither team had a super impressive non-conference win and both were effectively dominated by Utah schools last week. Ollie Gordon has entered the witness protection program and has not been seen this year and Alan Bowman is well, Alan Bowman. K-State wlll win and hope they can get to Farmageddon without another loss (which their schedule sets up as a possibility). Also, I would expect the Aggies to continue their domination of Arkansas in the imitation rivalry game happening during the State Fair of Texas though they will likely gump their way to victory as they seem to every year in this game. Also expect the Aggies to gump their way to at least 8 wins despite their glaring limitations because the only teams they play with a pulse the rest of the way come to Kroger field and their remaining roadies are Miss St, Auburn, and South Carolina. Rich of them to say we got favorable scheduling.... OU and Auburn...first one to 17 wins...

That place is legit and worth a stop if you are trekking through Dalhart en route to or from CO.

@closetojumping's well written prose is a potent example of a theory that I have held to for some time that says folks in high performance roles (coaching, artistry, leadership) often have a 15 year window where they are at their peak in a role and then for whatever reason performance tails off (age, complacency, boredom, etc.). I see this with music groups. Some of my favorite groups that have had long careers have a 15-20 year run where they put out incredible albums and then begin the slow decline. Sure, they can release an occasional banger or 2 in their later iterations, but the magic is gone. I see this with actors/actresses and senior leaders of major companies. Rarely if ever have I seen a CEO that has been in the same role with a company for more than 15 years lead a transformation of a business when the winds shift. We see it with coaches. The Bowden example is a prime example. We lived it with Mack Brown. St. Darrell Royal realized it and left willingly after his 20th season, 6 years removed from his last national championship and 4 years from his last Top 5 season ending rank. I think this is likely where Alabama and Saban stand today. Saban has been at Bama for 17 years. The game is shifting around him. His team just got whipped at home in a fashion that hasn't happened since before Saban was coach. Even the mighty Burrow led LSU Tigers didn't dominate Bama in 2019 the way Texas did Saturday night. The signs are all there. I don't expect Bama to pull a Jimbo and go 5-7 this year. Still plenty of talent on the team to do well against their schedule and Saban's left nut could outcoach Jimbo and a bunch of other SEC coaches too. 10-2 feels about right for this Bama team. However, the warning lights are flashing and declines often happen gradually...then suddenly. When we are deigned to play Alabama again as an SEC conference game, won't be surprised to be playing an 8-4 type version of Alabama as opposed to the fierce dragon of old. Whether Saban is still the coach at that time remains to be seen...I'm betting he won't be.

I’ll play the role of contrarian here as I believe the final grouping of 3 for Texas will not be the obvious 3 of OU, Ag, and Pig. Cant imagine that they’ll make us completely happy with our perm 3 rivals (assuming UT communicated this as their desire) while screwing longer term SEC members by not honoring all of theIr wishes. I expect a lot of horse trading to take place before the schedule is finalized and that no one will be completely satisfied. My guess is Pig isn’t on the final list as the embers of that rivalry are barely flickering in the conscious of most college football fans. Since we all believe that TV will have some say, they’ll want UT to play OU and Ag every year as it is likely the expected ratings for those 2 games would exceed UT/Pig and thus Arkansas would be odd man(pig) out. Not sure who would be the replacement in that scenario….it is possible it is someone we wouldn’t expect. Also, the 3 permanent rivals aren’t set for all time…it could be that in the next TV contract ESPN (or whomever) armed with ratings data might cajole the SEC into some changes to maximize viewership. If Pig isn’t one of the original 3 but the ratings for the matchups that happen exceed expectations and are better than the ratings for the games against the currently unnamed 3rd permanent opponent, a swap would likely happen. All logic dictates that OU, Ag, and Pig are the games…but logic hasn’t often applied in these situations.

If so, think the school should rename/rebrand itself to its more well known moniker “Southern Money University”. “Here come the Money Mustangs!”

Well, KSU win this year was after a bye week so maybe that no practice days number was closer to six…

On the flip side, we will be coming off our bye week when we play UH. Not so much of an advantage for them I would think.

About how I expected the schedule to shake out. We’ve known for a while that UH would be a road game and I figured ISU//WVU would be a coin flip for the other spot. Little surprised that OSU didn’t replace one of the Kansas schools. BYU as a home conference game is fine…Cincy might have been more interesting though since I don’t believe we’ve ever played them. All in all, not a bad schedule for 2023…we should be able to make hay with this. I expect we will hear some other announcements in the days and weeks ahead about officially going to the SEC in 2024 and a revised non-conf schedule to include whatever we agreed to with Fox.

Don’t make commercials like they used to…

Well, I was on the field after the 90 OU game waving the Texas flag at midfield chanting OU sucks but don’t recall if there were 20,000 other UT students on the field at the same time. Good times…still can’t believe I was 4 for 4 in college at the RRR

Mandel is trolling Texas and OU fans, probably because of the imminent move to the SEC. He can’t honestly believe that a Texas team which improved several position groups across the board is going to have a worse record than last year in a conference that on balance won’t be as good as last year. To top that off, the horse he is backing has Adrian Fucking Martinez as it’s QB who hasn’t proven to be anything resembling consistency in the 15 years or so it seems like he has been playing college football. Feeing some Iowa State 2021 vibes here with a team that is hyped beyond what they actually produce. Cant wait to point and laugh at this in December when he gets exactly nothing right…

You’ll love the Primo…have had mine for 5 years and you can smoke just about anything on it and it comes out great. Brisket, ribs, chicken. Pork butt & tenderloins, beef tenderloins, tri-tip & picanha, thick ribeyes, and yes ctj, even prime rib. Hell, I’ll smoke a pre-cooked ham just to get that smoky wood flavor. Keep us posted on what you work with!

Yep...begun the content streaming wars have...