PencilPusher

To be honest, after we uninspiringly wrapped up our trip to the CCG on Friday, I was hoping for a WVa win simply because in a rematch of closely matched teams, the "avenger" of the earlier loss usually has the advantage. Not surprisingly, OU won. Well, we've beaten them already, know the formula, etc., but in my mind I conceded the fact that this was going to be a difficult game to win again and we should be happy with 9-3 and a spot in the CCG in year 2 of the Herman revival. Then Lincoln & Kyler happened. Sometime late Monday, Bob Stoops had to call his young padawan coach and say "Are you effin kidding me?? You sounded like Mack Brown before most of our games complaining about the Beaty issue. We always knew we were winning before the game because they (Texas) always sounded scared. Now you've just done the same." Much has already been said about Kyler on this thread and before. However I'll add this. He ain't up for a fight so to speak. Kid was born on third base with respect to athletic ability, had an upbringing that allowed him to maximize that ability, went to a HS athletic program (Allen) for which the school side of things only exists to service the ambition of the athletic program, and was dropped into a talented roster and system this year to play college football before ducking out for millions to play baseball. Everything is always set up so nicely. Yet, when adversity hit and was effectively outdueled by Ehlinger the first time around, dude couldn't deal with it and one of 2 great memes that our football team has graced us with this year was born. And it seems he has had a problem beating the school he clowned during recruiting a few years back. Lost 5 of 8 in baseball over the last 2 years while not really contributing anything memorable in the games (and certainly not leading his team to a conference title or CWS appearance) and lost the Golden Hat already. So despite the fact that all the experts are already debating whether OU or OSU is more worthy of the 4th spot, I see an OU team that sounds a lot like 2000-2004 Texas and a Texas team that sounds a lot like 2000-2004 OU. Tom Herman, Sam Ehlinger, Charles Omenihu, and the rest of the Longhorns sound confident. Lincoln & Kyler sound scared. That doesn't mean OU won't win. But I'd grab some of that sweet Texas +7.5 action because Texas is going to be girded up to bring the fight to OU in this game - just like they have in the last 2 with Tom Herman at the controls. The "avenger" should normally have the edge in a rematch like this, but I see Texas as the team playing with that edge in this game. Take the loss pussy -----again!

Como éstan, bitches! Spanish language news is here. Tonight's top story: the sewers run red with Burgundy's blood.

Looks like we found the only Aggies that can win something in football this year or at least make a playoff. #UCDavis #GoAgs Fun fact......UC Davis' head coach is none other than former CU coach Dan Hawkins......wonder if these Ags got to go on any whitewater rafting bonding trips........

That's totally inappropriate. It's lewd, lascivious, salacious, outrageous!

Quick thoughts on this game.....as I predicted a couple of weeks ago, I still think this is a Texas win and I don't believe it is going to be a 51-48 type of shootout. Folks mentioning concern about Tech's defense. Tech's defensive S&P ranking currently is the same as it was for 2017 - 88. What made Tech's defense better last year was they forced 29 turnovers last year. Through 9 games, they have only forced 15. However over the last 2 weeks, they have made them count as they have forced 4 and scored 28 points off of the 4, including a couple of return touchdowns. Those turnovers and the points generated off of them made both games much closer than they really were. So the recipe for Texas is simple. Play like you have offensively over the past few weeks and don't turn the ball over. If that's the case, Texas should easily get into the 30s, if not more. On the other front, this was a much better matchup than the previous 2 games for our defense, and that was even before Bowman got hurt. Tech runs an extremely efficient short and medium passing game, but they are not very explosive (kinda like Texas). But that was with Bowman largely running the show. Duffey is a step back in that regard and having watched most of his sole start against TCU, Tech's offense will not run as efficiently and keep in mind they were coming off of a bye week preparing for that game. They don't have that luxury this week. If Tech can't be hyper efficient on offense, they won't be able to put up points. Plus, Tech can't quite run the same stuff that WVa and OSU did to hurt Texas and I don't think coach Gosling is as adept a playcaller and gameplanner as Gundy and Holgo. If Texas loses, it will be because they lose the TO battle (-2 or worse) or Tech's special teams play an outsized role (they are actually pretty good this year) or both. And for those fearing Lubbock and night games, this isn't Manhattan KS which was a true house of horrors for Texas. Lubbock has actually been a place where Texas actually has kickstarted a strong closing kick to a season. In 1996, then chancellor John Montford ordered the goalposts greased before the Texas game to keep Tech students from tearing them down expecting a coronation against Texas for the first ever Big 12 South championship. Remind me again how that went or what happened the rest of the season? Or in 2004, where VY was coming off 2 horrific performances and everyone at Hornfans at the time was predicting Tech to wipe the floor with us, only to see the start of the "let Vince be Vince" era of football. Texas won that game by 30 and I think did some good things after that. Hell, even Charlie Strong won a night game in Lubbock with a much worse team and it helped him get to his only bowl as a Texas coach. I will not be that shocked if Texas goes up there and win solidly with what appears to be an improved defensive performance.

Thought I would put this here as I read the first page of the Todd Orlando sucks thread and it was definitely monkeys flinging poop. Baseball has a great metric tool in evaluating player contributions called WAR (Wins over replacement). It effectively tells you how your players a contributing to wins above what an average level replacement player. Look at the Red Sox and Astros and you will see a bunch of guys in the plus column. There isn't a metric like this for college football, but the eyeball test can give you a good idea. Last year, the Texas defense finished #21 in S&P+ on defense. There were three things Texas did well: Stop the Run, Third Down Defense (Texas was number 1 in the country in S&P for this category), and create turnovers (forced 26 last year). I don't have to quote the stats for 2018 for anyone to obviously see that Texas isn't anywhere close to that. What happened? Attrition of course. Run defense - On the defensive line, Texas replaced a + WAR guy in Poona Ford with a replacement level player in Chris Nelson. Nelson has been fine and he has played at a replacement player level. But he's not elite and the only player on the front line that you could argue has been a + WAR guy is Omenihu. Hager has at best been replacement level and perhaps below and the backups haven't distinguished. Then you get to the linebackers and the combo of Malik Jefferson and Gary Johnson was a significant +WAR duo last year. Gary Johnson and Anthony Wheeler, not so much. In fact, Wheeler's performance has been so negative that the LB corps as a whole would have a -WAR for the year, even if they kick ass the last 3 weeks. And what has been somewhat overlooked is the contributions that Jason Hall made in the Joker role last year when Texas went to the lightning package because that sealed the deal in terms of how effective the defense was. BJ Foster will probably be a plus player in his time on the 40 acres, but he isn't that as a true freshman and certainly hasn't been as effective as Hall was. To run a true spread busting defense you have to defend the run with 6 or less players. Last year, Texas was good at it because there were + players in those roles.......this year it is a resounding no. 3rd down defense - From first to pretty bad is pretty bad, but the worst is the fact that Texas is in the bottom quartile in putting teams in 3rd in long (see run defense above) and even when Texas gets teams in 3rd and long, they are still converting at a robust clip. This is where you have to pick on the DB's some. Boyd has largely been a + player this year and Stearns started the year fantastically (actually replacing the + production from Deshon Elliot) but has hit the freshman wall and his play has dropped off...so much so that the last two weeks he has been on the negative side of the ledger. Davis and Jones have missed time both from injuries (and other stupidity) and while both have generally played at a replacement level, their backups at times have not. I think Cook should be a good player, but again as a true frosh there are growing pains. Locke was a - WAR player last year and as a senior hasn't improved but Texas has no replacement level players at that position right now. West Virginia won largely because Texas had to go long stretches of the game with 3 true freshman in the secondary and 2 significant - WAR players on the field. Turnovers - Texas only have 11 so far this year. Some of this is bad luck...believe Texas has only recovered 30% of the fumbles forced, which is statistically low. But, Texas isn't forcing them either. Deshon Elliot was a machine last year....6 INT's and 3 forced fumbles. No one on this years team is even close to that production. Caden Sterns has 4 INT's, but that's pretty much it. Other than TCU and OU (7 of our 11 this year), Texas has not created much in any game and have been shut out the last 2 weeks against offenses that actually had a propensity to turn themselves over. 1 or 2 in either game might have won it for Texas. Yep...its a talent issue. Texas needs 2 or 3 more incredible defensive classes to operate at a championship level. As we look to next year, I would expect that the defense will be slightly better and bolstered by the fact that OU and WVa will be replacing significant parts of their offense. However, it will be 2020 before the defense can return to an elite level unless a lot of players make a big leap. Given the amount of experience some of the young freshmen have received this year, the secondary may get there at some point next year, but the front (DL and LB) will be of concern. Playing time for some of the "redshirts" on DL and LB over the next 4 games will help significantly. As for the remainder of this year, the good news is that Texas will see offenses that are less capable of exploiting all of the weaknesses that were laid bare the last 2 weeks. So the defense should appear improved, even if it really isn't. Oh and of course........

Well, theoretically I could do either, but why waste it when I always have chicks over wanting to try my "meat".

It feels so good to be back here at the Dexter Lake Club. We'd like to do a number for you titled Shama Lama Ding Dong......so hit it!

Pasadena HS has only scored 41 points this season and given up almost 400 so it isn't surprising that Atascosita got up so big early. Several of the Pasadena schools are pretty bad so Humble ISD is dominating 22-6A this year. As for Atascosita, they were lucky to escape Summer Creek last week and Kingwood gave them a run as well. Don't think Atascosita is as good as last year but will win the district after beating Summer Creek. Interesting dynamics setting up between Atascosita and Summer Creek in the district in the future. Summer Creek hired Kenny Harrison from Port Arthur Memorial last year - former Longhorn - and we all know Atascosita's coaching staff is led by former Ag Craig Stump. Both schools sit squarely in the high growth area in that part of town. Depending on how fast that area grows, they might have to insert a 3rd HS in between the 2 (land is already purchased.....just need demographics to catch up). Until then, these will be the 2 largest schools in HISD and likely the two slugging it out for district supremacy (at least as long as both are in 22-6A).

Thanks......I love this setup and I can pretty much do anything outdoors I want to.

But way more talent? OU has way more talent than OSU. Not sure WVa, Tech, and ISU fit that description across the board. Now if we are talking talent matched with experience, coaching, and schemes......that is a different discussion and maybe could entertain that as a discussion point for why Orlando needs to improve.

Easy there big fella.........no sob story here. Yes the corners were dumbasses but the coaching staff (with an extra week to prepare) did not do enough to effectively counter both that issue and other obvious weaknesses. Texas beat OU simply because the offense executed at a level they hadn't done before that game (or since). There were 5 or 6 wasted possessions against OSU that if Texas had been more effective on just 2 or 3 of those, its a win. The point is simply this....unless Texas can generate multiple turnovers (which we have only done in 2 games this year) and not give up field position off of special teams issues, WVa is going to put up points. Our defense still has talent issues and some schematic gaps that WVa can exploit (in ways the rest of the schedule can't). The key will be our offense taking advantage of a significant number of its possessions and getting points. We will need 35+ to have a shot at winning. And for the record, on the other thread I did have us winning out after this game so no one is jumping off a bridge.

Here's my setup with the Primo

If matchups matter (and they do), this is how I see it play out (sans any significant game changing injuries): WVa - Likely loss-see my post in the game thread) Tech - I think this is going to be a win.....we match up much better against Tech than OSU and WVa simply because Tech dinks and dunks down the field which against those types of offenses this year, we play pretty well. They aren't great on defense and have turnover and penalty problems as well. They've been good in the kicking game, but they aren't good at a lot else. Other than their second half against OSU and about a quarter and a half against WVa, they've been what you expect. Yada Yada Yada Lubbock and all that, but if we are indeed coming off of a 2 game losing streak, betcha we get right here. ISU - Win. It is a home game and though ISU has been a little friskier lately with the new freshman QB on offense, they aren't consistent enough. This is another game where the style of play suits us this year. I would expect a TCU type of game where it comes down to who executes better in the 4th quarter. KU - We will have something to play for so I expect us to take care of business. You know what KU has done well this year? Force turnovers (+16). They aren't good at anything else. What have we done well this year? Not turn the ball over. 3-1 and we will see if that gets us a spot in the championship game. It might not based on what I am predicting above.

Hate to say I saw last week coming...but I saw last week coming. Texas can not generate nor prevent big plays and OSU jumped all over that in the first half as I would have expected a coach like Gundy to do. When OSU decided they weren't going to shoot themselves in the foot this game (no turnovers, only 4 penalties), that was all that was needed. 3rd down defense of course was a huge problem again this week. Orlando knows it but his charges aren't executing. Unfortunately, this week actually looks worse now since Texas clearly did not improve coming out of the bye week. WVa's offense is significantly better than OSU's as not only are they explosive (Top 15 in the country), but also very efficient (5th). This is OU lite in a lot of respects. WVa also has had penalty and turnover issues (their margin looks better because Baylor was so giving last week), but they will come to execute as they are coming off of consecutive bye weeks (yes that was a shot at Baylor). The only way Texas' defense holds this team under 40 this week is force some turnovers and hope WVa executes like they did against ISU. ISU's defense has certainly been executing better this year than Texas' has for the most part, but WVa helped that along by not looking crisp. Texas also has to generate sacks-WVa has actually given up more than you would expect given their offensive prowess, but Grier isn't as mobile as other quarterbacks in the league which probably attributes to it. WVa's defense is also "sneaky good". What they have done well this year is get teams in 3rd and long. They do a good job stuffing the run on early downs and have been one of the best in the country on getting teams in 3rd and long. They are only allowing 30.1% on 3rd down conversions this year and doing it without the benefit of a lot of sacks (they are as bad as Texas is in that capacity). Texas has actually been reasonably good on 3rd down this year on offense which will be critical in this game to keep up. Too many wasted drives against OSU-that can not happen this week. Texas must be good on first down this week and play against tendencies. Expect that WVa will aggressively attack on first down to get Texas in predictable 3rd and long situations. If Texas can avoid that, they can sustain drives and keep up on the scoreboard. I don't expect special teams to make a significant difference in the game as WVa is neither exceptional nor poor on special teams. Our punting game is still problematic and Bujcevski did have a poor 4th quarter punt that gave OSU insurance points to secure the victory. Net punting for Texas has been a huge problem that won't go away this year and we will likely continue to give up points off of it. We knew it would be tough to replace Dicko, but this has frankly been worse than expected. Smells like back to back losses to me. Know Herman's teams generally overperform in this situation, but matchups matter in football and this is not one that plays to our strengths. We'd be better suited playing a team like LSU this week if we were trying to score the Herman upset special.

Not to be a bloody fakkin arsehole, but the Scots prefer their whisky without 2 things....ice and the letter "e" Now here's a fine red-headed Scottish lass who I presume has buttery nipples...

Love Bert looking out the window as he's driving and picturing him saying something like this:

Yes, if the Buddha's name was Sun Tzu......

I wouldn't say you are trash, but this year you are Maryland with better offensive talent & coaching. While the analysis above was somewhat simplistic, I do think OSU has shown the ability to hit big plays all year (you are 5th in big play rate in the country....Texas by comparison is ranked 107th) and our defense has shown a propensity to give them up. If you were to look at the scoring drives against us this year, they almost all have 1 or 2 20+ yard plays on the drive. No one is going 10 plays and 70+ yards against our defense much at all this year (which is a contrast to what our offense is doing to most defenses). Mentioned that penalties and turnovers were a big governor in your offense and if they pop up, you won't get to 30. If OSU executes at an average level on offense and hits 8-10 20+ yard plays, I don't see why they don't get to 30 on our defense. By the way, OSU is averaging a 20+ yard play every 8-9 snaps this year, so getting 8-10 may not be a stretch. It sounds like your issue is consistency and that is the one area I think Texas has done a significantly better job then OSU this year is execution, particularly on offense. If Texas rolls, it will be because we limit the big play coupled with continued excellence in offensive execution (limiting turnovers, high 3rd down conversion rate, few sacks allowed). Lets see what happens. I still forsee a 35-31 type game. S&P has us losing by a touchdown. Vegas sees us by a FG. Should be interesting.

So as to the upcoming game, the key to this week is "explosives". OSU's path to victory is hit a bunch of big plays. Their offense is Top 10 in generating explosive plays this year....our defense has struggled preventing them. So get out your Greg Davis explosives counter and track both sides. If there is a significant difference in explosive plays in favor of OSU, they will win....it is probably that simple. Worth mentioning again that the only 2 teams that have scored more than 21 points against Texas are also in the Top 10 in explosiveness this year. I'd expect Gundy and Co to throw the kitchen sink at Texas in the first quarter-trickeration, misdirection, etc. to get some quick points. They'll look to try to jump Texas the way Maryland did. If OSU is in the 20's in terms of points by halftime, they should be feeling good. OSU will not be able to generate long sustained drives against this defense given Texas' propensity to stop those kinds of drives plus OSU's penalty and turnover issues this year. They are also below average on 3rd and long and have given up lots of sacks and pressure. This is a team that needs to hit big plays and get good field position. Don't be surprised if OSU hits 30 or more this game. The matchups favor that unless turnovers play a big factor. And they could because OSU is -3 for the year and Cornelius has already tossed 8 INT's. On offense, Texas will have to be somewhat different out of necessity this game. Even if Ehlinger starts (which we may not know until gametime), he will likely be on a pitch count in terms of QB runs and Texas will probably only use that in key situations (short yardage, goaline, etc.). That means Texas has to change how it sets up the run. Unfortunately, not sure there is any Sam Wyche 2 back offense (think Ickey Woods/James Brooks for the old timers out there) in the playbook so generating run opportunities will be tougher as was seen in the Baylor game with Shane. The QB's should be drilled this week on counting the box and if it is a running play into a stacked box, check to a WR screen and vice versa. Texas had success with that against BU late and think it should be a key component of the "run game" this week. OSU's run defense is average, but can't give them easy looks to defend (i.e run into an 8 man box). Alabama can do that-Texas can't(this year anyway). Gotta hope the downfield passing game is crisper this week now that Shane has had some reps with the ones. Can't afford to miss opportunities that should be available. OSU's defense has been generating sacks this year...it appears to be about the only thing the defense does well which is why 3rd and 10 isn't a winning play for Texas this week, despite the fact that Texas is actually in the Top quartile of 3rd and long conversion percentage this year. Texas needs to go into this game thinking 35 points + is what it will take to win. Special teams has a tilt to OSU on the strength of their kicking game. Their kicker is a proven junior who has only missed one attempt this year. Texas' kicker is an emerging freshman that has already missed 5 attempts. Their punting has also been better- Zach Sinor is a veteran who has been netting almost 5 yards more per punt than Bujcevski. At least Buj is coming off his best game as a punter and it was the first week that a bad punt did not lead to opponent points. Neither team has a return game to shout about, but Texas has generated a couple of big punt returns this year. Expect a tight game (surprise). I'll buck S&P and say Texas wins (and covers the - 3 spread), but it will be a 4th quarter game. Texas at least knows how to play these types of games this season. Now back to reliving 2015 and determining OSU's place amongst the serfs of the Big 12 who must pay homage to the royalty that is Texas.

That is an excellent point. I was trying to get a handle on why the model showed us as underdogs for the next 3 games even though we are probably better than 2 of those teams and even with the third. 3 game losing streak was a bit of hyperbole on my part. I'd probably more strongly correlate us to the 2-1 record, but I don't think it matters much and we will have another week of data on Tech and WVa to look at next week.

Continuation of my post above about S&P with a look at defense. Here again, Texas’ profile is similar to offense. On efficiency (Success Rate-40, Marginal Efficiency-21), we are close to or clearly in the top quartile. Explosiveness however (IsoPPP – 91; Marginal Explosivness-97), we are near the bottom quartile. Basically, we are a bitch to sustain drives against consistently but are susceptible to the big play. Again, anyone who has watched Texas this year would agree with that. So, explosive offenses would be our achilles heel. Texas has only given up more than 21 points twice this year. Oklahoma (who is ranked 2nd in both efficiency and explosiveness) and Maryland (who is ranked 5th in explosiveness). Pretty simple to figure out which metric matters against the Texas defense. So lets look at the statistical profile of the next 4 opponents (again, excluding KU at this point OSU – Efficiency (Success Rate – 34, Marginal Efficiency – 28); Explosiveness (IsoPPP – 12; Marginal Explosiveness -11) WVa - Efficiency (Success Rate – 7, Marginal Efficiency – 3); Explosiveness (IsoPPP – 31; Marginal Explosiveness -38) Tech - Efficiency (Success Rate – 23, Marginal Efficiency – 18); Explosiveness (IsoPPP – 81; Marginal Explosiveness -71) ISU - Efficiency (Success Rate – 109, Marginal Efficiency – 106); Explosiveness (IsoPPP – 33; Marginal Explosiveness -74) Ruh-roh…..the next 2 opponents are not good matchups for Texas' defense from the explosives side since they are top quartile. That means expect both to hit the low 30’s which means Texas' offense has to play closer to how they played against OU to win. Now both OSU and WVa struggle with penalties and turnovers which can equalize. The metrics would indicate that Tech may be the easiest to defend as their strength plays to Texas' strength and they are not particularly explosive. ISU’s offense is a mixed bag, but limit their big plays and they can be held in check. So, as has been posited above, explosiveness is really skewing the evaluation when it comes to the Longhorns. So is Texas doomed to lose 3 in a row? Highly doubtful. S&P shows a loss to Tech, but I think that may be the “easiest” win from a statistical profile perspective since Texas' strengths match up well vs their weaknesses. etc. Simply put, the next 2 games will be the toughest to win and you may need to pull out the Greg Davis “explosives” counter because either Texas needs to limit big plays or keep up offensively. If OSU and WVa hit significantly more big plays, Texas is 0-2 in that stretch. 3-2 should be the floor for the remainder of the season. Of course, Tom Herman confounds S&P more than most coaches so perhaps the real floor is 5-0. Lets see how it plays out.