I do feel like we've avoided the absolute worst case scenario, which would've been all the ICE shit being popular enough for long enough that they were able to go full nazi without really facing much organized resistance. I know it doesn't seem like it, but there has been at least some degree of effective organized resistance (though mostly not from Democratic officials, which would be fucking nice to have) and we've had some small wins here and there. And ICE's kidnappings are incredibly unpopular. But now, what is probably realistically our best chance basically looks like this:
1. Super-ICE keeps doing the shit ICE has been doing and turning more and more people against them. Thousands die in their concentration camps while Trump hires millions out as slave labor.
2. Dems take the House (and Senate, maybe) in 2026 and stop the bleeding, but probably won't be able to actually substantially reduce ICE's funding or restrain their criminality in any substantive way.
3. Trump runs again (and gets the GOP's nomination) and SCOTUS doesn't object.
4. This pisses off enough people that a Dem wins like 55/45 in 2028 and we have to hope the military's leadership acknowledges the Dem as the new President.
At the end of all of this, we've still got to deal with whatever the fuck ICE has become by 2028, which will likely be an insurrectionary military force that we'll need the army to put down. Then we're going to have to actually prosecute tens of thousands of fascists to the fullest fucking extent of the law, not some piddly one year or time served bullshit, to ensure that they're too scared to come out of their mom's basements for another 100 years.