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CustersDoctor

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Everything posted by CustersDoctor

  1. The Big12 will have more linear exposure this year than in any previous season EVER. Remember we haven't had 12 teams since 2010 and we've never had 14 teams before. If the BIG12 doesn't have 14 teams for the 2024 football season, those linear TV spots will be picked up by another conference. It is not inherent that IF the BIG12 is back to 14 by 2024 that it keeps the slots it has this year. The power fanbases of UT & OU will disappear and with them some of those linear slots. But you certainly can't keep any of those slots if you don't have the games to keep them. And of course we know that it's the PACX that is desperate for any broadcast options and they'd be glad to get those slots. So the BIG12 would like to add two schools in time for the 2024 football season and to me the only rational options (Sans PACX schools) for the BIG12 are SDSU, FRESNO ST & maybe UCONN.
  2. There's certainly some truth to that. What Big12 fan would have watched last years Cincy vs UCF game? NOBODY. But some BIG12 fans will be more likely to watch Cincy vs UCF in the future. OU & UT fanbases NOT watching as much BIG12 football will somewhat hurt the rating starting in 2024. We'll just have to wait and see. In 2024, Will the combined fanbases of BYU, UCF, UH & Cincy, watching Tech vs OkSt game be the same as the fan interest use to be from OU & UT fans? Maybe about the same, but it takes four schools to do it.
  3. The only reason UConn would be in the conversation is that ESPN wants them in the conference. But even IF ESPN said that they'd prorate the payout if we added UCONN, that doesn't mean that FOX would.
  4. Your budgeting point is spot on. Just a month ago WST publicly pushed the budget crisis panic button. This was at a time when the WST president was on the PACX commission. He knew that they were screwed. Now the UW president is on the PACX commission and we get, "The room just shifted." How the heck will media negotiations get better with a school president on the commission that has an escape hatch to the BIG12, versus a president whose only viable option is PACX survival. I guess maybe if there is a commission member who can continually tell Klownkov, "That deal won't keep us here", then maybe GK won't present unworkable deals to the entire ten.
  5. I have to agree with this. 30 years ago the Oilers rookie initiation consisted of a bad hair cut. I remember laughing at Bucky Richardson's hair. If you're being coerced into bad haircuts there's gonna be pics.
  6. So AAU means All Anal University?
  7. Nobody is going to vote on a deal that hasn't been presented.
  8. Business Media experts https://www.endeavorbusinessmedia.com/ Law Firm https://www.proskauer.com/
  9. If the PACX really sent out the contract framework right before a FOUR day weekend, it would be because the deal sucks. In politics you deliver bad news on Friday and good news on Monday or Tuesday. If the unemployment rate is going up, you announce it on Friday. Or If you ever had a daughter try out for cheerleader, the tryouts usually conclude during the week before spring break. The the administration will post who made the squad on Friday, then run out the door. They don't want to deal with any angry mom's and suicidal daughters until they've had a week to chill. Same here, if the PACX deal sucks, give it to the schools on Friday June 30th, the schools will have to chew on it at least until Wednesday.
  10. The Big12 finalizing some Thursday and Friday night slots is just another nail in the PACX coffin. Their "forward thinking" just got outplayed. There's also this previously posted tweet in which Yormark thanks the teams at Endeavor and Proskaeur. I guess these are companies specializing in contract negotiations and most of all, fine print details. I've wondered how conference offices could possibly handle all the infinitesimal details of a 6 year billiondy dollar deal, looks like you outsource that crap.
  11. Here, since you're to lazy, let me google it for you. Accelerated: See Foward Thinking Forward Thinking: See Creative Creative: See Accelerated That should help clear the air.
  12. Conference deals always Include a minimum number of good appearances for even the worst school. So Oregon state and Washington state get more exposure than they ought and therefore UO and UW have a few less than they ought. It's a reasonable question to ask, "What's the linear minimum in the BIG12?" On the surface you might think it would be identical to the other NEW12 members, then you might think, it might be identical but wouldn't the number of guaranteed linear appearances go down with multiple PACX teams moving over? Well a great thing about coming to the Big12 with the top 6 schools is this: Let's say the PACX deal is a 2linear-3streaming mix. If 6 schools come over BOTH of those linear spots come with them and you don't have to split them with CALSTAN and OST & WSU. So their linear appearances improves. If the PACX claim that they OWN the Saturday late night time slots are true, then there's 14 Saturday night time slots per season for the BIG12 WEST to have all to themselves. They'll have three rivalry games to put in there. UOvsUW, BYU vs UU, AST vs UA. Maybe a non-con game or two vs an SEC,ACC or B1G team. Then your other late night games will come from the west of the rockies teams that travel out west.
  13. The PAC12 already has a streaming problem. Their linear to streaming last season was about 66/33. Fifteen of their first 32 games were streamed, thats nearly 50%. During conference play the PAC12 network usually had 2 gamed. That's 2 out of 6 games or 33%. With the fact the BIG12 locked up most of the remaining time slots the PACX at best will have 3 linear games a week. That's a 60/40 split and only if they stay at ten teams which I'm pretty sure they will. I believe the PACX won't go lower than a 60/40 split and won't take less than 27mill guaranteed. And if they do some BS of $23mill guaranteed, but if we can show just X number of new subscribers you'll all get 7 million a year more, then the 6 schools with options will leave.
  14. So in edition to the usual junk mail asking for donations to phacility improvements, NIL collectives and season ticket renewals and upgrades, PACX fans gonna get solicitations badgering fans about their Applezon streaming subscription. 🙄
  15. 1. I love deadlines. I especially enjoy the whooshing sound they make as they fly by. 2. With all this goal post moving by the PACX, I keep thinking, "Two more weeks to flatten the deal."
  16. John Conzano article from Sept 22, 2022. His PACX analysis was more accurate and more objective back then. It's kind of funny to go back in time to read some of his stuff. https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-amazons-nfl-win-creates-moment Conzano wrote this about pending Big12 contract negotiations. On Sept 8,2022. https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-latest-big-12-expansion-jab "I’m fascinated by the 180-degree difference in strategy between Yormark and Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff. Outside of Kliavkoff’s spicy Media Day appearance in July, he’s remained silent. In fact, the Pac-12 commissioner was in Atlanta for the Oregon-Georgia game and didn’t do interviews. Presumably because the Pac-12 is amid a media-rights negotiation. On the same day, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey conducted a lengthy impromptu news conference in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium press box. The Big 12’s Yormark was also asked on Wednesday about his conference’s media rights negotiations. There’s some confusion about whether the Big 12 is — or isn’t — in the exclusive negotiating window. “That process has started,” Yormark told reporters. “I met with ESPN last week... I’ll be meeting with FOX in the next week... My gut tells me that both FOX and ESPN would like to (negotiate early) but I’ll know for sure... in the next week.” Some interesting semantics at play here. I bounced Yormark’s quote off two TV-industry insiders. They agreed that it sounds like all Yormark has is an indication from ESPN that they’d like to talk outside the exclusive-negotiating window. Per the contract, the Big 12 can only talk with ESPN and FOX at this point. The networks like it that way, too. If they’re not in an exclusive, 30-day negotiating window, there’s no ticking clock." Turns out BY was INDEED involved in contract negotiations and the BIG12 getting their deal done early may be the thing that kills the PACX.
  17. Big18 Three Divisions WEST: UW, UA, AST, UU, UO, BYU NORTH: KST, CINCY, WVU, IST, CU, UK SOUTH: TECH, OKST, TCU, BU, UH, UCF. 9 conference games. You play five divisional games, play one North school at home and one on the road, one West school at home and one on the road. So in the six years of the contract you'll play all 6 North schools once at home and once on the road and all 6 West schools once at home and once on the road.
  18. No way schools with options accept this deal.
  19. That's 24mill over a 6 year contract. You can't leave 24mill on the table, of course they'd jump for 24 million
  20. This is the way. The best contract the PACX could possibly put together is a 6yr 1.8 billion dollar deal. That comes out to 30mill a year per school. Adding schools dilutes that revenue. Not only does SDSU not add value they take slice of the pie and worse, they get some of the extremely limited linear time slots. IF the PACX were to get a 6yr, 1.8bill dollar deal with a 60/40 split linear to streaming deal and you add two schools, then each school would get 25mill a year and the TV split would drop to 50/50. There's no way the current PACX would go for that.
  21. If I referenced one of the WVU dudes as, 'The one with black lung disease" it wouldn't help delineate who I was talking about.
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