horncyclist

My son has ADHD and a number of food dyes make him bonkers for days...dramatic mood shifts, combativeness, all sorts of issues. We were skeptical at first but the connection was so clear we've started avoiding them, and it's such a strong and uncomfortable reaction, he does too. Theres're warnings, bans on some, in Europe, and the foodvindustry there has removed most of them as a result. In the US, California recently banned several and the public debate around it was parents describing how harmful they are versus food industry people saying, "well, people like the colors and banning them would hurt sales." The truth is a lot of stuff we consume, including approved drugs, are not sufficiently studied, especially long term effects, and maybe we need someone out there like RFK to challenge the industries. I'm just extremely skeptical it will come to fruition once our good friends at Nestle and Coca-Cola catch wind of the actual proposals. You really think Trump is going to go against the rich guys? Something like this happened with me with before the irst Trump administration. There's something appealing about some of the MAGA idea--recapture nationalism and our ability to do things as a nation. We went to the moon, then what sort of feeling? I know in reality we've advanced on all fronts but the sense of togetherness eroded tremendously. You can see the need for a radical shift. The problem is, Trump is a con man, and what we really get is authoritarianism and a vehicle for radical right dismantlement of the government and curtailment of rights. It will be bad, very bad, and none of RFK Jr's seemingly helpful ideas or anything else truly positive will happen. We get nothing.

Remember when Ben Carson to HUD was thought to be bonkers? Or Rick Perry not knowing what the Department of Energy did when appointed? Either of them would probably be more competent than 90% of those that end up in this cabinet. And this is the first line of appointments, wait until what we have after 2 years of chaos and turnover.

Did anyone ever answer the House outcome question? I'm still seeing NY Times showing very easy path to control for the dems. That would provide some protection for the next two years at least. Followed by the typical mid-term losses for party in the Whitehouse. It'd provide some oversight to the insanity that's about to come and block the worst of government dismantling.

Those NC voters that like all those state Dems but then thought Trump was a good idea are fascinating. Think about that person. I don't think it's fraud, shift was nationwide. Too much even for Elon and Russia superteam to pull off.

Yes, this is the answer. I think most any of the others on the short list--man or woman--would have outperformed her. I went along with the enthusiasm but in hindsight it all felt a little manufactured--as her prior Dem primary run did--and while it was enough to get me to care, it fell flat on those that needed a reason to vote for her. The rejection of Trump wasn't enough motivation, even though it should have been. I was in favor of the open Primary and still think that could have led to a stronger candidate. We'll never know now and our goal should turn towards making Trump a 2 term president. That is not a guaranteed outcome here.

Also posted this on the House Thread that appeared to not have much activity, so putting here too. How's the House looking? NY Times has a good dashboard showing what's outstanding and bucketing expected winners. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-house.html If you take the "Democrats expected to win easily" and "Democracts expected to win narrowly" races with a current dem lead, you get to a dem majority. It's surprising they could pull this off given Kamala's collapse but perhaps Trump/GOP's relative neglect of down ballet led to this outcome. This would be a massive silver lining if they pull it off and provide at least some check on Trump's power. What's the read here from experts? Pelosi stated confidently they would take the house, though no telling if she knew what was in-store for Kamala at that point--guessing she did and factored in to her prediction.

How's the House looking? NY Times has a good dashboard showing what's outstanding and bucketing expected winners. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-house.html If you take the "Democrats expected to win easily" and "Democracts expected to win narrowly" races with a current dem lead, you get to a dem majority. It's surprising they could pull this off given Kamala's collapse but perhaps Trump/GOP's relative neglect of down ballet led to this outcome. This would be a massive silver lining if they pull it off and provide at least some check on Trump's power.

I think Biden fucked us twice. Not stepping aside in 2023 to allow a Primary, and then anointing Kamala when he did step aside. It's easy to say this in hindsight given how terribly she performed but I do think an open Primary and convention nomination ends up with a better candidate. Probably Shapiro. He would have had more distance from Biden and probably brought more of affirmative case for himself.

I really didn't like her as a candidate and had hoped for the mini Primary. Pelosi apparently thought the same. It's possible it wouldn't have mattered who the candidate was. Would Josh Shapiro have won? Gavin Newsome? What's hard for me to wrap my head around is how we all convinced ourselves Kamala was doing great and running the rest campaign she could while apparently falling completely flat with the electorate. Again, considering the ledge and all, probably wouldn't have mattered at all.

Ukraine is fucked. There will be a negotiated truce and then Putin will ignore it and overtake the country. A lot of people are going to suffer and freedom will be lost.

Oh--guarantee he says tomorrow there were stolen votes that prevented him winning all 50 states.

This is really well said and the feeling I'll be left with after tonight. It's hard because we continue to have so much potential but not enough to stop the decay. Things are going to have to get truly bad and then hopefully a leader comes forward to rebuild. It's going to be a mess because through the courts and legislation, what Trump brings about will be extremely difficult to reverse and this electorate won't realize dismantling the modern state is the cause for their suffering. They didn't realize the creep that got us to this point. I very much fear the worst, plan to resist, but mostly plan to turn inward to my family and guarding the life I have.

How much control does Trump have over the commanding generals and military chains of command? Constitutionally, complete control right? Is he going to have those Hitler generals he was jealous of and what does he do with them? And I'm terrified of where this goes once the collection of bad decisions that are about to be unfold catch up to him. When things are going south, how will he respond?

It might not have mattered anyway the way this transpired but more blame rests with Joe Biden for not announcing he's not running by mid-2023 to set up an open Primary than anyone else. Country's fucked. We'll see how much of dangerous erratic decision-making we get versus Project 2025. Probably the worst of both.

Polymarket is shifting fairly steadily towards Trump. I know it was already biased towards him because of crypto pumpers but the shift is concering. Predictit similar shift, especially recently. What's driving this?

What's the purple field uncertainty looking range indicate? If I'm reading the trend right, they'll match 2016/2020 by 2 PM. Is that it? That'd be quite good, no?

It’s real and it’s glorious:

Senior Harris campaign staffer neighbor able to joined Halloween party late last night. Said she felt good. Checked her phone several times to reply to confidently to work questions. I think we’re good.

I saw some Trump ads for the first time during the World Series last night. There’s one accusing Kamala of letting illegals in, rapists and murderers of course, but then it ends with them in prison with Kamala ensuring they’re getting gender reassignment with pictures of scary trans migrant prisoners. This is a real ad. Where the fuck are we?

I think he runs in 2028 if alive and not in prison. And maybe from prison. The road goes on forever and the grift never ends!

Suckers and losers who had to go back to floating pile of garbage.

Depressing and hopeful insides anecdotes I heard this weekend: 1) labor organizer friends wife said labor organizer who’s on the ground in Michigan says things don’t feel good in canvassing efforts. No idea who they’re targeting. 2) Neighbor whose wife is fairly senior in campaign, working in Delaware full time last few months, said campaign is optimistic internally. Haven’t seen the movement to Trump public polls have shown. Feeling really good about GOTV advantages.

I just came here to post this. Guess I’ll keep my NYT sub after canceling WaPo on Friday.

I should clarify. I don’t think he would suspend his campaign but it would seal his fate. A video is different. It’d get enough sustained attention for a week or more and push whoever the hell these marginal undecided voters to stay home or just vote for Kamala. Doesn’t have to make his 35-40% base wake up. They never will.

Video of sexual misconduct with corroborating witnesses would end his campaign. Considering his history, that’s a real possibility.