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horncyclist

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Everything posted by horncyclist

  1. horncyclist
    He's been down in other polls but that one was definitely a huge outlier. A lot of those NYT/Sienna polls were tilted towards GOP. Not sure why. I don't think Kavanaugh could have had that significant of an effect and it be transient. From 538
  2. horncyclist
    Watching the townhall this morning. This is Beto at his best in his best format. Really a gift from Cruz. The last week or so has really shifted the narrative back. Looking ahead, I think the Trump rally will be a net negative for Cruz reminding everyone why he's disliked, and Beto's GOTV has to make a difference. I'm gonna stay optimistic.
  3. horncyclist
    Phonebank went well. Had 10 people, including 3 I had never met before that found out about it from the campaign. That you can have 10 people turn out in Alexandria, VA for a guy running in Texas has to be a good sign. Most had never phonebanked before. Were talking to some friends that own a coffee shop and a co-working space about doing some bigger events leading up to election day. Feels good. I think Beto's made some progress this week. How'd the townhall go?
  4. horncyclist
    The fact that Trump is still coming despite the hiyh risk considering their history and Trump's verbal diarrhea tells me Cruz thinks this is closer than 7 points. You don't take risks when you're ahead.
  5. horncyclist
    Yes: "Paid for by Texans Are. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. TexansAre.com"
  6. horncyclist
    Hosting our first Phonebank for Beto tomorrow up here in NoVA. Have 12 people coming so far, most Texpats. If it goes well, going to do it at least once a week until election day.
  7. horncyclist
    That'll pick up all of 10 votes. It has to be TV and in the major markets. People in Houston probably don't care about Heimlich county but they get not showing up for work.
  8. horncyclist
    *only medicare for current olds. Everyone else can fuck off.
  9. horncyclist
    Needs Needs captioning.
  10. horncyclist
    Has Ted ever clarified his position on dreamers? That seems like a shitty position even by his standards.
  11. horncyclist
    Dreamers have pretty solid support in Texas. https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texans-support-citizenship-children-brought-country-illegally-poll-says/ But a new Quinnipiac Poll found 55 percent of self-identified Texas Republicans supported allowing these so-called Dreamers to stay in the United States with a path to citizenship. Overall, 71 percent of Texans who responded to the poll backed the idea of allowing these young people to stay in the country. Ninety percent of the Democrats surveyed supported the Dreamers, but the strong support crossed ethnic and racial lines, as well as age groups, the survey showed.
  12. horncyclist
    Seems like that could fire up Latinos? What a heartless asshole.
  13. horncyclist
    So consistent with Nate's 20% prediction? I think the polls will tighten by election day. We'll see.
  14. horncyclist
    Here's 538's summary of the race. Has nice explanations of their model and how they rat the various polls and consider other factors. Also lists other prominent election predictors, Cook, Sabato. Cook still has it as a tossup for what it's worth. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/
  15. horncyclist
    I guess huge wasn't the right word. A lot of the reporting in the last couple weeks has been "he's done," and that's not how I things have changed. Here's the article I was referring to. Nate Silver explains it better. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/nate-silver-will-make-one-firm-prediction-about-the-midterms-most-journalists-wont-want-to-hear-it/2018/10/15/e66d9cc8-d0b3-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html
  16. horncyclist
    It's crazy how long it's taking them to come up with a story. Or do they not give a shit cause Trump will not take any action against them? Congress has had some pretty strong words for MBS so far.
  17. horncyclist
    Here's another one on immigration. Not sure why they're not using Ted's own words. Guess they don't want it to look like a traditional attack ad.
  18. horncyclist
    I'm just having trouble sorting it out and the only sources I see questioning Kasshogi are right wing. And if Kasshogi was a bad guy, murdering him as a state actor in the way they did places the Saudis on the wrong side of this. I've been an MBS fan but he fucked up here.
  19. horncyclist
    And abortions for illegal immigrants. Which is weird cause if abortions are a bad thing and you don't like illegals isn't aborting illegal anchor babies a good thing?
  20. horncyclist
    He's very close. Nate Silver was in an article a day or two ago talking about how the media is fucking no up polling again. In his model, Beto went from 1 in 3 chance to a 1 in 5 chance in the last month or so. That's not that huge of a change but the media narrative has been Beto is done. What is 7 points in terms of votes?
  21. horncyclist
    This is another thread but I don't think that's a fair take on the Muslim Brotherhood. I find it suspicious the narrative you just gave is being pushed by the antimuslim right.
  22. horncyclist
    Thanks but won't play for me. Oh well. Not being able to say something nonpolitical about either your opponent OR yourself is all anyone needs to know about Ted Cruz. Hope Beto's getting him some Whataburger.
  23. horncyclist
    Anyone have a clip of Cruz's nonpolitical thing about yourself response?
  24. horncyclist
    Can we discuss the fucking debate? Jesus Christ. I agree Cruz being stumped by the "tell us something nonpolitical about yourself" was a major gaffe. It'll probably be the story of the debate. Those sorts of things are all these debates are good for.
  25. horncyclist
    Some light editing will make that great. Show him getting stumped then cut to his attempt at an answer of missing his daughter's basketball game. Cruz didn't look great. I thought Beto could have bee more effective on the attack. He had the right lines but didn't nail them. He should have come back to "Lyin' ted" repeatedly and thrown in a "There you go.again, c'mon, Ted."

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