I’ll share the full write up once it is posted, but Dunlap on OB said he just finished his OL grades for SJSU and a few things stuck out:
-Goosby graded out above 80 on his scale which is considered very good
-Baker actually graded out at 79.13 which is considered very solid
-Stroh was 73 which is horrible and Umeozulu was at 79. He said if Flood sees stuff the same way he does, there is no reason Neto shouldn’t be given the starting nod against UTEP.
2 game sample size stats and averages are eye rolls, for any team really, especially the ones that have played FCS opponents or have had 1 of their 2 games against a top 5 team in the country.
And I'm not talking about chronic stuff like red zone and whatnot. If 50% of a player's snaps for the season are against Ohio State, I'm willing to let a little more data be collected before talking about what his average yards per game or yards per catch are, both for the good and the bad.
We had 1 sack through 2 games last year, then had 45 over our next 14 games.
It would be nice to know what is playing into that number on special teams. Are they weighing punting, kicking, and returns all equally? Is there a way to factor in coverage stuff? If your kickoff specialist just kicks it through the endzone every time, so your opponent starts on the 25, how is that compared to a team that kicks it to the 5 and tackles their opponent on the 23?
Winning a national title is never easy, but I'm not sure I can look at this year or future years and say it will be easier than the path we had in 2023 or last year. As the playoff expands, it creates more opportunities for injuries, bad luck, the ball bouncing in funny ways, etc. The playing field seems to be more level than ever before in the college game due to a variety of factors.
I think we all have high expectations of this team and they need to play better, but it's balancing those expectations with the fact that the sport has changed to the point where you are trying to set yourself up to peak at the right time. Going 10-2 in the regular season and setting yourself up for a playoff run is considered a good season. Hell, 9-3 is likely going to start being considered a good season once the SEC starts playing 9 conference games, if we continue to play the Notre Dame and Ohio State types out of conference.
SP+ is still mainly using data from last year.
Paragraph right above the rankings:
Note: Early in the season, ratings are based primarily on preseason projections, including special teams ratings. Over the course of the season, preseason numbers are slowly phased out from week to week.
Bobby is saying as many as 6 players in the two-deep could be out for UTEP.
Wisner, January and Mosley are obviously three. I guess the other three to monitor would be Moore, Taaffe and Simmons? I think it was mentioned Endries exited with an ankle at some point last weekend but I think he returned.
I know a guy who interned at PFF a while back, and maybe the process has changed since he was there, but he said there is a lot left up to individual interpretation when they are grading stuff and you aren't getting the same person grading your game each week, so you are getting a lot of individual opinions.
They use a lot of fancy jargon and say a lot of cool stuff in that article you linked explaining how they do stuff, but I am highly skeptical they are reviewing and grading games multiple times based on All-22 film (as they claim), considering how quickly they push out grades. I also still don't really understand the process of converting their plus/minus grades onto a 0-100 scale, where 60 is apparently an average grade and 80 is considered outstanding. It's a useful data point that usually backs up what we see with our eyes, but it ain't gospel.
It's wild how many different stats, rankings and metrics you see thrown around nowadays. You can pretty much find something to fit any narrative you want. You think Texas special teams sucks? SP+ has Texas at 135th nationally. You think special teams have been okay? FEI has Texas at 20th.
Michigan went 7-5 last year, lost its best 5 players to the NFL, and has a moron of a head coach. The fact that they were ever ranked in the top 15 was borderline insane.
There is no shot Sherrone Moore is the head coach when they play Texas in '27. That dude is lost.
UTEP sacked Utah State 6 times and UT Martin 4 times. They were top 20 nationally in sacks last year. From what limited stuff I've seen, they like to bring a lot of blitzes and pressures.
It should hopefully be another game with some explosive plays down the field.
SJSU was caught completely off guard in the first half against Central Michigan. Apparently CMU brought in a bunch of old Army coaches on offense.
Then in the second half CMU drives went:
-3 and out
-3 and out
-turnover on downs
-FG
-3 and out
That’s not to excuse our run blocking but CMU was coming out in 13 and 14 personnel against SJSU in the opener and it took a half to make an adjustment. CMU also threw for 13 passes the entire game.
Not really comparing apples to apples.
We seem to want to do all this NFL like under center run game stuff with Arch and I just don’t know how much longer we can keep it up.
Arch looks most comfortable when things are spread out and he is able to freelance a bit. This OL also seems more comfortable in pass pro. But with our receiver situation I’m not sure how effective that would be against SEC opponents.
As Rod Babers says, football is a constant battle between what you want to be and what you need to be in order to survive. We have 3 more weeks to figure out what we need to be.
It’s nice we get these 3 opponents in a row because it will be easy to tell what progresses and what doesn’t.
Although I think UTEP and SHSU are a step below SJSU.
If we clean up just half the stuff we need to, the results on the scoreboard will be noticeable.
He had a chance to get into the circle of trust all spring with Baxter out and Blue gone, and the result was a guy coming off an Achilles tear passing him on the depth chart.
Just read an article on OU's On3 site saying this is the biggest game of the Brent Venables era, and people were in the comments basically trying to convince themselves it would be a program-changing win.
A home game against the #15 team, starting a freshman QB, where you are favored by almost a touchdown.
Depends on how it looks.
Not all 35-3 wins look the same. The Rice game a few years back was 37-3 after 3 quarters, and we had like 400 yards of offense, but then Rice had a 10-minute drive in the 4th quarter, scored a garbage TD, and we only won 37-10. Then the freakout commenced for 6 days til we beat Bama.
Bobby
The Horns are working through a couple of injuries that have gone unreported.
At least one defensive starter will be out for Saturday's game. The injury is not expected to be long-term in nature, maybe a couple of weeks.