To go 3-3, we'd have to beat OU and KSU at home, then probably win at Oklahoma State (or somehow beat Kansas at home).
Oklahoma seems pretty similar to Texas - got blown out by an okay Stanford team and then lost closer ones to Creighton and Wichita State.
KSU is probably worse than Texas.
Oklahoma State is better than Texas by the metrics but not so far out of reach.
The path to the tourney (I think) looks something like
Beat Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU at home (should be doable even with this team's jekyll and hyde act).
Beat Tech, and one of WVU, Kansas, or Baylor at home.
Win at two out of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU on the road.
Beat LSU at home.
That gets you to 20-11 (9-9) with I think 6 or 7 Q1 wins.
So long as they beat two out of Tech, WVU, Kansas, and Baylor (e.g. win 2/8 tries) + LSU, 8-10 might get you in, though you're probably a play in 12 at that point.