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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518

  1. Yeah, I don't like the open UTG with AJo to 5. You are OK getting multiple callers with hands like 55 or 87hh or even AJss but big offsuit cards don't play well multiway, especially in bloated pots. I feel like opening to 10-12, folding, and limping are all >>> opening to 5. And I don't like varying open size by hand, so you need to construct your open range appropriately.

    I also haaaate the flop check-raise in the same hand. You are the preflop raiser, then you check-raise an ace high flop.  What is your target there? Are you trying to get value? Trying to bluff? If you had called a preflop raise, say from the BB, then did this, maybe. But now your hand looks super strong, but is actually medium to medium+ strength. If the PFR checkraises an ace high flop and you have AT, how do you feel?  Pretty bad, right?  And unlikely anyone has AQ or AK for us to try to bluff off. So what are we doing?  Betting or check-calling >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/raising.

    Also fold the T7 pre. We aren't NEARLY deep enough effective to call with T7. The guy has put in 1/6 of his stack pre. We don't flop gin even close to enough to make up for all the times we just whiff and lose $15, or get a small to medium piece and have no room to maneuver b/c the stack to pot ratio is so small, and drop $100 with a marginal hand. 

    On TLK's hand, agree, need to just fold the 43 when 6 handed. Raising could be acceptable, depending on game conditions. I think postflop calling or raising flop is OK, and calling or raising turn is OK. 

  2. 21 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    Bloomberg is the only person I’d consider voting for. If he doesn’t win the Dem nomination, I will not vote. 

    But why though? What specific qualities does Bloomberg have that makes you super excited to vote for him, but no one else on either side?

  3. On 2/3/2020 at 5:39 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

    in my case, it was a bad call, there were 3 of us still in the hand.   I had 9-6  on a 9-8-7-6 top board.    bottom board was J-9-6-4     turns out he had JT.     He open shoved as FTA on the turns. I still had the guy behind me to act after I called. 

    you cant always go looking for monsters under the bed, but Im in deep shit against any T or 5 that happened to have its 2nd card pair on the bottom board.     and I fucking paid him off anyway

     

    Eh. I wouldn't say deep shit. There is no hand that can have you beaten on both boards. I would expect an open shove to be a straight on the top board trying to scoop, and so that I'll be good for the bottom board, with 4 outs to scoop myself. Also once you call, the guy behind you has a very tough decision even with something like J4.

    If there was a T or 5 on the bottom board, I think you can more comfortably fold, since he can now have you beat on both boards.

  4. 2 hours ago, Spur08 said:

    Yeesh.  12% sounds rough and definitely not cheap.  Sounds like I should bite the bullet and use savings?

    Yeah. Look at it this way, at least you got the value of the money for the time period. If you hadn't made the mistake, that money never would have hit your account in the first place and wouldn't be there now, so you're no worse off (other than any penalties).

    • Like 2
  5. 7 minutes ago, CurlyDumps said:

    In Shaka's defense, VCU did move to a tougher conference in his 3rd year. And the Briante Weber injury in 2015 was a really bad break. VCU was 7-0 in conference before he got hurt.

    Without the FF he was still averaging 27 wins/season, competing for the A10, and making the tourney every year, which sounds pretty successful to me.  I wonder how many active coaches have made it to the dance five four years in a row? 

    A10 was slightly tougher than the CAA, but nonetheless he had the best team in the A10 3 straight years but never won the league, and the only time they won the conf tourney was that 2015 season. 

    The 3 seasons before Shaka VCU averaged just over 25 wins a game, won the conference all 3 seasons, and the conference tourney 2 of the 3. They won 25+ games in 3 of the 4 seasons after Shaka as well, and have won the conference 2 of those 4 seasons. So in the years surrounding Shaka's 0 for 6 mark in winning the conference, VCU won their conference 5 out of 7 times. Shaka's performance is at or below the coaches surrounding him, except for the Final Four run, which literally never should have happened.

    And you had it right the first time, it was 5 straight bids. He got to 6 straight with his first season at Texas. 

    • Like 1
  6. I'm calling there. I wonder why he didn't bet the turn. If he had bet the turn I would have called. Not sure what I would have done if he had bet the turn and river.


    Checking back the nuts in position headsup can be very profitable. Imagine in this hand KC doesn’t have the Kd. He may actually fold to a turn bet since he may already be beat plus 20% of the time the river is a 4th diamond which is crushing to his hand, and he knows he may also have to call a river bet.

    But if turn goes check check then KC is much more likely to call a river bet since it buys him showdown. Also KC may go for value on river thinking he may be good (def think he should be betting this river for example).

    I just had a hand like this in a tourney where I turned nut flush heads up and checked it back. Opp paid off a river raise and said he just didn’t think I had the flush since I checked.
  7. On the KC-97 hand (I don’t acknowledge the username change dammit) I prefer a bet-fold on the river to a check-call. He will check behind lots of one pair hands that he would crying call with. If he raises river we can happily fold. As played I’m almost always just clicking call there. He could be valuing less.

     

    And JFC at that 33 hand. Chips please!

     

  8. 6 hours ago, CurlyDumps said:

    He averaged about 27 wins/season and had VCU in the top 25 in Kenpom his last two seasons - #18 in 2013 and #25  and 2014.

    There are certainly red flags we can see now in hindsight, but he had a very successful 6-year run. It wasn't an Andy Enfield type hire.

     

    VCU 2015 - top A10 team in KenPom, finished T-4th in A10, did win A10 tourney, lost in first round NCAA as higher seed

    VCU 2014 - top A10 team in KenPom, finished 2nd in A10, lost A10 tourney final, lost in first round NCAA as higher seed

    VCU 2013 - top A10 team in KenPom, finished 2nd in A10, lost A10 tourney final, lost in 2nd round NCAA by 25 points in 4-5 matchup

    VCU 2012 - 2nd CAA team in KenPom (1 spot behind Drexel), finished 2nd in CAA, won CAA tourney, lost in 2nd round NCAA

    VCU 2011 - 3rd CAA team in KenPom, finished 4th in CAA, lost CAA title game, then ran to Final Four after the least-deserved at large in history. 

    VCU 2010 - 2nd CAA team in KenPom, finished 5th in CAA, lost CAA semifinals, won CBI.

     

    So in Shaka's six seasons at VCU, he never won a regular season title, despite having one of the best 2 teams in the league 5 times and the best 3 times. 2 of his 6 seasons he finished 3 spots below expectation. His last 4 NCAA games there were a win over a 12 seed, a 25 point loss, and two losses as the favored seed. 

    Seriously, where is Shaka's career without the gift of that 2011 at-large bid??

    • Like 2
  9. 7 hours ago, Bookman said:

    By the way, I really respect the opinions on here. I play at the card houses in San Antonio and I’m a bit of a nit. Say it’s a $1/$2 game, I have QQ in early position, put in the standard raise and get two/three/four callers. Flop has an A, no draw, and I’m out of position. Is my default play to check?

    Should I bet more than the standard raise preflop? I don’t want my cards to be face up.

     

    Like Lurch said, vary your preflop raise size by the game conditions, not by your specific holding.

    Also keep in mind that playing GTO is our target if we are not playing exploitatively. Often, especially at lower stakes, playing to exploit your opponents' horrible mistakes makes much more money than doing things like calling AA on the river against an opponent who will never bet less than 2 pair because you need to call X% of your range, etc.

    Every bet we make should be able to either be called by worse, or fold better out. QQ/KK specifically on ace high flops are often neither, depending on number and type of opponents, so I would often put them in a checking range. 

    Against observant opponents, you need hands that you aren't check-folding in your checking range. These can be sets, top two, or even a hand like AK on a dry A high flop. I would rather bet hands like 66 or KQ on AJ4 (may get a jack or pocket pair like 88 to fold) as opposed to betting KK/QQ (ace won't fold, less usually won't call).

    So if I'm opening ATo+, A8s+, 55+, KQ and get 3 calls and it comes A84, I can, say, check AA, AK, A8s, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, and 99 and bet 88, all other aces, KQ, 55, 66, 77. I didn't run numbers off this, just off the top of my head. But this has us checking some strong hands so opponents can't bet us off always when we check and betting some weak ones (and also betting some that we will go to the mat with so that betting isn't a weakness tell). Honestly with a hand like AK, we aren't trying to get stacks in against most opponents. If all the money goes in on a 4 way pot and you have one pair, your opp better be a fish, or someone better have been fairly shallow.

    Often, your opponents are not paying close enough attention to worry as much about this rather than just maximizing your EV. 

    Against looser opponents, I'm more apt to bet QQ/KK on these boards, since they are calling wider pre, so less often have an ace, and often call with less. Against fewer opponents, I'm more apt to bet them, because less likely an ace, and people will call with middle pair, etc., more often in a 2 or 3 way pot. Against more passive opponents, I'm more apt to check, since they will often check behind and give a free card and betting tells me they have an ace, whereas with aggressive opponents, they will put me to many more hard decisions trying to push me off. 

    I think betting KK or QQ in a 4 way ace flop is almost always -EV and burning money. Just too likely that someone has an ace and isn't folding it. 

    Also, what po said.

    • Like 1
  10. I know all of the tough regs will make me show, so I am consistent as I can remember to be to making them show. I’ve had a number of them fold rather than show, so I didn’t even have to show the winner. No info shared is an extra win for me


    Right but if we demand to see the hand then we have to show anyway. I will always show if I call a river bet and they say “good call” or “you win” or “I missed” etc. bc the benefit of letting a bluffer keep bluffing is > the info. Also just maybe they missed that they made a flush or a straight or whatever. If they wanna muck, then cool.
  11. I would consider the benefit of seeing one hand vs making someone have hard feelings/decide they don’t want to bluff you anymore bc they have to show/make you show your missed bluffs.

     

    EDIT: much different if you make a thin hero call vs this hand here where we have the literal nuts.

  12. It's possible to check this turn against certain opponents who will always "put you on AK" and then bet 100% of rivers to make you fold. I actually would prefer doing it in position rather than out of position, since they are more likely to lead the river OOP and may just check back if they are IP. 

    I generally would be going for 3 streets of value blind vs blind with AA on most runouts, including this one. 

    You shouldn't worry as much about being exploited if you have strong reads on what your opponent is actually doing. Your opp here isn't implementing some piosolver mixed frequencies strategy, he's playing his cards 99% of the time. He check-called flop and turn, meaning he had at least a pair or draw theoretically. Now he leads river. The only real draw got there. You say you are positive he never does this with one pair - some people will block bet the river with one pair to "set the price" and not check and have you bet $17 instead of $10, for example. If he won't do this with a pair, it's very hard for it to be a raw bluff, b/c what was he ck-calling flop and turn with?

    If I sat down readless, I would have played it like you did, but if you are confident on your read, you can just exploitatively fold river. Same concept as 3b-folding KK to an opponent who you know only 4b AA.

    • Like 1
  13. The end of the game last night was totally bizarre also. Texas didn't foul in what seemed like a couple pretty obvious foul spots and let OU burn clock. That made it seem like they had basically conceded. They then rolled the ball in bounds as though they were trying to do anything to save clock, then passed aimlessly around the perimeter for 25 seconds, then made a layup to cut it to 10 with 25 seconds left, THEN called a timeout. 

    • Like 1
  14. Stand by Me came out in 1986, set in 1959 and felt like a different universe. The same time gap would exist for a movie released now and set in 1993. 

    If Back to the Future was released now, he would go back in time to 1990 and forward in time to 2050.

    • Like 2
  15. 1 hour ago, Lurch said:

    I’m also playing up my low-mid suited aces more. I go in the hand thinking that I’m ready to fold one pair aces but looking for two pair and nut flushes to win stacks with. Those guys that play too many hands get crushed by their middling flushes and one pair aces hands

    Yep, totally agree with those as well.

  16. Agree, don't need to widen your range necessarily, but make sure it's correct for each position. Don't try to win every pot from them just because they are worse players, play good hands in position, relentlessly value bet the shit out of them, and don't try to bluff a table full of stickies.

    I would also enhance the value of hands that can make big hands, and decrease the value of hands that generally make one pair. I'd rather take JTs or 44 against a field of 6 sticky opponents than AJo or KQo. But position matters a lot also in getting paid with big hands, so play that accordingly. 

     

    • Like 1
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