Jump to content

TXSooner518

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    2331
  • Joined

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by TXSooner518

  1. It's possible to check this turn against certain opponents who will always "put you on AK" and then bet 100% of rivers to make you fold. I actually would prefer doing it in position rather than out of position, since they are more likely to lead the river OOP and may just check back if they are IP. I generally would be going for 3 streets of value blind vs blind with AA on most runouts, including this one. You shouldn't worry as much about being exploited if you have strong reads on what your opponent is actually doing. Your opp here isn't implementing some piosolver mixed frequencies strategy, he's playing his cards 99% of the time. He check-called flop and turn, meaning he had at least a pair or draw theoretically. Now he leads river. The only real draw got there. You say you are positive he never does this with one pair - some people will block bet the river with one pair to "set the price" and not check and have you bet $17 instead of $10, for example. If he won't do this with a pair, it's very hard for it to be a raw bluff, b/c what was he ck-calling flop and turn with? If I sat down readless, I would have played it like you did, but if you are confident on your read, you can just exploitatively fold river. Same concept as 3b-folding KK to an opponent who you know only 4b AA.
  2. My two least favorite things on earth - poker and my life.
  3. Absinthe and Opium are great. Zumanity is a pretty sexy Cirque show, good choice with GF imo. Ka and O also excellent.
  4. Have you seriously never seen Shawshank Redemption?
  5. The end of the game last night was totally bizarre also. Texas didn't foul in what seemed like a couple pretty obvious foul spots and let OU burn clock. That made it seem like they had basically conceded. They then rolled the ball in bounds as though they were trying to do anything to save clock, then passed aimlessly around the perimeter for 25 seconds, then made a layup to cut it to 10 with 25 seconds left, THEN called a timeout.
  6. Looking for two cheap and good tickets if anyone has extry.
  7. Headed down to Miss'ippi next week for some Tunica WSOPC action. Always takes me back to the old days when I go to Tunica even though it has fallen so far. LFG.
  8. Stand by Me came out in 1986, set in 1959 and felt like a different universe. The same time gap would exist for a movie released now and set in 1993. If Back to the Future was released now, he would go back in time to 1990 and forward in time to 2050.
  9. Agree, don't need to widen your range necessarily, but make sure it's correct for each position. Don't try to win every pot from them just because they are worse players, play good hands in position, relentlessly value bet the shit out of them, and don't try to bluff a table full of stickies. I would also enhance the value of hands that can make big hands, and decrease the value of hands that generally make one pair. I'd rather take JTs or 44 against a field of 6 sticky opponents than AJo or KQo. But position matters a lot also in getting paid with big hands, so play that accordingly.
  10. Welcome! It shouldn't ever be easier to beat good players than bad players. If it is, you are either playing worse against the bad players, or you are mistaken as to what makes players good or bad. You make money when people call 7-10x raises with trash, even if you have short-term frustration. It's basically impossible to put MP on KK since he flatted the PF raise, obv 66 is a risk but that's one combo. But yeah we do have to think about what he can pay off our jam with. Sometimes it makes sense to just call, even if you think you are good 95+% of the time, if there aren't hands that we beat that pay off a raise. One easy example is 4 hearts on board, we hold the king, someone bets. If they aren't super tight, we win the hand quite a lot of the time. But if we raise, most players will fold everything but the ace unless we are a maniac, so it usually just makes sense to "call expecting to win." In this hand, it would help to know what the turn blank was. Would it be possible that he turned 2 pair (could if it was a 5 or 7, could not if it was a 2, for example)? If so then he could have rivered a lower boat. Did the turn bring a flush draw that didn't include the 6? If so he could have a 6 with a flush draw, and then made trips. Would this player pay off a jam with trips?
  11. Yeah calling the AT is horrendous in cash or tourney for that many chips. Even worse with four live players behind you. Same with calling 76o or J7. Also terrible as tourney chip leader unless the jam is so short that it is +EV to call. Being deeper doesn’t change the equation of calling preflop jams much other than a few weird ICM situations, almost entirely right on bubble or at final table.
  12. I ate here on Saturday. Got a 5 beer flight for $5 which was a hell of a deal. Brisket stew was great. Pork steak with 2 sides for $12 also excellent and a hell of a deal. Did see some people ordering pizza at the brewery which also looked excellent. The ribs are baby backs rather than his standard. Very good, but preferred the standard. The brisket is the same good stuff as always. One annoyance - you sit and someone eventually takes your order, then eventually brings it. A lot slower than the "standard" Q experience. Sit and enjoy your cheap flight.
  13. TXSooner518

    SNL 45

    Macy's was great. ScarJo has slipped a bit, she was my overall top seed for quite a while. Still easily in the field of course. Also had no idea she was with Jost.
  14. This. Without the speech, snap call, shrug, roll on. But when they say "I don't think you have ___", they 100.0% of the time can beat ___. See Rounders. "I don't think you got the spades Teddy, so I'm gonna go all in." That's where you need KK and say "You're right. I don't...have...ze ten. Kings fooool." Def not one to lose sleep over, just a gross flop and you could have lost a lot more. He just tried to let you off the hook.
  15. So annoying. Even worse when they justify it with "I got the same hand two hands in a row" or whatever. So last hand you got the 4th and 13th cards, this time you got the 3rd and 12th. Do you think all those cards somehow stayed exactly in a row, or is it maybe a random occurrence?
  16. If you go $200 and he jams, we have to call $550 to win $830, so we need 39.8% equity. Against literally KK+ we have 23%. Against QQ+, AKs we have 52%. So basically if he does this half the time with QQ or AKs we gotta go with it. We played our hand a bit oddly, so I think there is just no way we can say 99% AA. He never just decides you can't have the blade, has AKo, has blockers to AA or KK and decides you fold pairs a lot and if you don't, it's a flip? Never? He's always just flatting those hands to play them multiway out of position? HH of your full double+ with JJ?
  17. Nothing wrong with the KK line, especially when we are OOP and have an aggro in the hand. Also some players won't put you on KK+ since you just called multiway the first time. I don't think he HAS to have AA. If you think his 5b range is only going to be AA, then 4b smaller and then fold to the 5b, but it's gonna be really rare to accurately range him to {AA}, especially when we played our hand nonstandard (not saying it wasn't good/fine, just not standard).
  18. TXSooner518

    SNL 45

    Yeah, it was really weird. Worst ep of the season IMO.
  19. Just might be my first Main Event since 2015!
  20. Lol it’s a 5 unit sample size. Again, people are completely clueless as to probability and statistics. It’s not some amazing thing that a 30% event has failed to happen 5 times in a row. 8 of the last 11 NCAA BB champs have been a 1 seed, one was a 2, one a 3. OMG HOW DO THEY KNOW WHO IS GOOD WITH EYEBALLLLLLS EDIT to add: On top of that, the seeding isn't really a "power" rank, it's a resume rank. LSU isn't the 1 seed because of some overwhelming feeling they are the "best" team, but they have the best resume. I think that most observers think LSU, Clemson, and tOSU are really close as far as who is "best." Any of the 3 would not be a surprise to win the title. But, for example, nearly everyone agreed tOSU should get the 2 seed over Clemson, yet Clemson is a slight favorite. Does Clemson winning mean the "eyeballs" are wrong again? Of course not. Sagarin Predictor says LSU is the 4th best team in the country. Most computer systems have LSU at 2 or 3. But if they don't win the title, you'll be back here talking about eyeballs being wrong, when the eyeballs don't have LSU #1.
  21. The more teams you have, the more seeding matters, you start adding in dramatically weaker teams, byes, home games, etc. Yes, neutral site games between only 4 top teams doesn't make seeding matter as much. For example, in the model you listed, Memphis is a considerably easier game for LSU than Baylor and Oregon for tOSU and Clemson, despite it being razor-close on who deserves the 1 at least. Most observers think the 3 teams are pretty close power-wise, with Clemson's resume obviously considerably weaker. I said with all champs and only champs. That model doesn't have all champs and doesn't have 'only' champs. It has Baylor and UGA, who aren't champs. It is missing 4 teams who won their conference.
  22. A playoff with all conference champs and only conference champs will suck suck suck. Every OOC game is now an NFL preseason game. Fuck that nine ways from Sunday.
  23. You would still have to seed it, which dramatically impacts likelihood of winning, so I still say I'm right!
×
×
  • Create New...