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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518

  1. 10 hours ago, Zavala said:

    Yep it's actually killed their playoff chance IMO.

    it's no longer the Alabama invitational. Fuck Saban. He did this to himself with his style points.

    Another idiotic take man. Literally no team takes their starters out in the first half, with very very rare FCS-type exceptions. If the dude was healthy enough to play (he was, his injury had nothing to do with his prior ankle situation), there's no reason to pull him. It's pure results oriented silliness. No one said shit about Justin Fields throwing a TD in the 3rd quarter up 35-7 against Rutgers.  Exact same score when Tua got hurt, but in the 3rd Q instead of 2nd Q, and against one of the 15 worst teams in college football rather than a middle of the pack conference opponent on the road. 

    • Like 4
  2. Don’t know how to play blinds when BTN straddle. Fold more, play more, no different?


    Assuming that the blinds act first, play much tighter. The only positive of being in the blind normally is having good pre-flop position but now you have the worst position pre-flop and post flop.
    • Like 2
  3. Somewhat depends on if we have observant opponents who are thinking about what you would have.

    I would never slowplay QQ or TT on this board. The combo of gutters being out there combined with getting paid by an ace is too high.

    AA we can occasionally risk the slowplay because of the difficulty of getting called because only one ace is left.

    I would occasionally slowplay KJ because we aren’t at risk of being drawn out.

    We can check AK, AJ, KK, JJ as pot control hands, which all have a chance to improve to the nuts but currently are one pair on a coordinated board in a six way pot.

    • Like 1
  4. I would sometimes bet the turn but otherwise yes IMO. Betting ace high flops with KK into 5 people is just burning money. We would love to see a free or cheap turn esp since we also have the gutshot.

    Checking/betting turn is really close and mostly depends on player tendencies in your game. For example if BTN is in the hand and is one of those guys who could never let it check through twice better to check call his bet.

  5. Hey J with the Tua injury let me know if you wanna cancel the bet. I think that decreases the chances that they put Bama in which wasn’t my point in the bet. Totally fine keeping action of course but wanted to give you the option.

    • Like 1
  6. 2 hours ago, Jhawk said:

    I’m good with this except I would add that if 2 SEC teams not named bama make the playoff then no action. Thought being that if Georgia beats LSU in the CCG and they both get in then obviously bama is out  

    My assumption is basically that Baylor or OU will be left out. Clemson will get in as long as they don’t shit themselves. Oregon is on the outside looking in unless there is chaos. I think OSU and Clemson are in. Then if LSU wins out bama is in. If they lose in CCG then Georgia and LSU. 

    You cool with the SEC wrinkle?

    Sure, that's fair. Booked for $20!

    • Like 1
  7. A9 is really close here. I’m folding A5 and not folding AJ. And against most mouthbreathers I feel solid at going with A9. But for a player willing to fold AK on AKQ to make this very strong move I think we are gonna be beat a lot. This smells like 55. I don’t think this guy is bombing J9 here. I slightly lean fold.

  8. Stop with the histrionics. Bama isn’t getting in over a 0 or 1 loss P5 champ. The B12 is respected more than ACC or PAC. PAC has missed 3 straight playoffs. B12 currently has 50% of its teams in the playoff rankings. ACC currently has 7% of its teams in the rankings. Get a grip.

    • Like 2
  9. 25 minutes ago, sidis said:

    if utah wins out, they will have a wins over oregon and washington which will be substantially better than anything ou can throw out there.  and by the end of the season, unlikely that those four ranked wins for ou will still be holding up.  if texas were to win out and ou beats them a second time, then that might help them but not real sure that's realistic at this point.  kstate is mediocre.  take away their ou win and they are pretty bad frankly.  they got wrecked by okie state and baylor, and lost to texas.  their best win besides ou is against miss state who is awful.  texas actually lost a football game to this year's tcu team.  that is mediocre.  the september version of texas was pretty good but we are a ways from that.  having to walk-off fgs at home against kansas and kstate to sneak away with wins is the definition of mediocre.

    ou absolutely went chickenshit.  the only thing i ever liked about bob was his fuck you, we'll play anywhere anytime attitude.  his ooc games were bama, oregon, washington, miami, florida state, notre dame, tennessee, and ohio state.  granted, like ucla, some of those teams were down at the time they played them (like tenn and miami) but not very many.  for everyone not named texas, scheduling ucla any year since after 1998 is scheduling a free win.  they are 75-75 since 2008.  you know exactly what you're getting when you schedule ucla.  not sure where you're getting your bowl eligible 6 of the last 7 years.  they were 3-9 in 2018 and and 4-8 in 16.  they squeaked in at 6-6 in 17 where they got destroyed by kstate.  currently 4-5.  looks like after 2022, maybe ou will get back to playing some real teams ooc.

    this is what the december discussion is going to look like so get used to it.  you better be a big ass texas fan from here to the end (or i guess baylor).

    Disagree that beating Washington and Oregon would equal three wins over Baylor and Texas plus wins over Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  Oregon is a better win than those 5, but those 5 are all better/equal to Washington, and OU would have 5 good wins compared to 2.

    And you're being a bit silly on the "chickenshit".  Playing Houston and at UCLA as 2 of your 3 games is significantly above P5 average for OOC scheduling. I botched the UCLA, they had 6 of the last 7 before this year, in glancing at it I thought the "blank" for 2018 was for 2019.  OU entered the agreement to play UCLA in Nov. 2013. UCLA went 9-5 in 2012 and 10-3 in 2013 and appeared to be on the rise under Mora. Mora was a hot name for other jobs. You're being disingenous with that. Houston has had a winning record 12 of the last 14 seasons. That series was announced in 2014, Houston was 26-13 the 3 years preceding the announcement. 

    19 minutes ago, sidis said:

    also, saying usc loss is way worse than kstate loss is also a stretch imo.  one is 6-3 and one is 6-4.  kstate losses to texas, baylor, iowa state, and oklahoma state.  usc losses to oregon, notre dame, washington, and byu.  byu is bad but those other losses aren't that bad and certainly no worse than kstate's.

    KSU hasn't lost to ISU, they haven't played. Also USC got absolutely boatraced by Oregon in a way KSU hasn't yet. And BYU is dramatically worse than any KSU loss. So USC's 3 good losses roughly equal KSU's 3 as far as teams played, with only USC getting murdered, and also USC adding a shit loss. 

  10. 3 minutes ago, sidis said:

    i don't see a scenario in which florida goes to the sugar.  if lsu and georgia win out regular, the winner goes to the playoff.  the loser either goes to the sugar if bama backs into the playoff or if not, bama likely goes.  i think the only way fla goes is if auburn beats both georgia and alabama but even then, not sure because uga is still the east rep since fla has two conf losses.  i suppose if uga loses to both auburn and tamu, then fla would get in and then they lose to lsu.  but even then, it would require bama backing in.  bit of a longshot scenario.

     

    12 minutes ago, C-Man said:

    What is that scenario? Unless Bama somehow worms into the playoff, aren't they a stone-cold lock for the Sugar Bowl?

    Don't get me wrong, it isn't likely, it was more for illustrative purposes. And I'm not rock-solid sure what the Sugar Bowl selection process for the SEC team is (I know the B12 champ goes if they don't go to playoff, and if B12 champ goes to playoff, B12 title game loser must go to Sugar, no options). And yeah, it would involve Alabama worming into the playoff lol. Georgia loses to Auburn and Aggy, LSU over UF in SEC title game, 2 loss conference champs elsewhere, or a 12-1 B12 champ Baylor. 

    7 minutes ago, sidis said:

    re: ou, they lost to a very mediocre kstate team and needed a no-call pass interference to beat iowa state at home.  their current most quality win is texas who is mediocre.  they screwed the pooch by going chickenshit with the ooc schedule.  baylor will not result in a big boost.

    now, my take on georgia is almost the same.  they have 1.25 quality wins between florida and notre but their loss to south carolina is worse than losing to kstate imo.  but uga will take care of itself in the sec ccg.  i suspect they could lose to auburn this weekend (a game i am going to).

    bama has no quality wins (yet) either with their best being tamu by a long shot.  their one loss is to the second best team in the country though, not shitty ass south carolina or mediocre kstate. 

    dude, penn state isn't that good.  no way.  they're done either way after next week's matchup with ohio state anyway.  utah's loss is about like ou's.  usc isn't great but they aren't south carolina shitty either.  if they win out and beat oregon, they deserve the nod over ou imo but no way they will beat out tide in that vote.  oregon is the interesting one.  heartbreaker against auburn opening week.  they get credit from me for playing a real non-conf game.  they haven't crushed teams they should have though.  they're a bit of an odd team.  bama-auburn outcome will be directly compared despite being 14 weeks apart.  i predict the playoff will be:

    lsu, ohio state, clemson with oregon/utah winner, ou, and bama all throwing their respective shit fits as to why they belong there.  because the college football gods hate me, it will somehow work out that ou makes it in.  but they aren't in a strong position to make that argument against those other teams.

    Not really fair to say OU went chickenshit on the OOC. They played a team that has been a top G5 team, and a road game against a P5 team that's been bowl-eligible 6 of the last 7 seasons and is solid traditional team. They can't control that they both are quite a bit below average this year. That said, they have the schedule they have, and you can ding them for it, but can't really call it chickenshit. I mean, would scheduling @Minnesota have actually been any more "gutsy" than @UCLA?  

    I also would say both KSU and Texas are above "mediocre" and KSU is better than USC, come on. What do you think would give Utah a better resume than OU if both win out? OU would likely have 4 ranked wins, with Utah having 1, with OU having a solid chance at their loss being ranked, and Utah's unranked.

    Have fun at UGA-Auburn!

     

     

     

  11. FPI has Florida's defensive efficiency at 11. Huck's Adjusted Stats has it at 12. Both metrics and Sagarin have UF as a top 12 team overall. 

    For Kentucky, they absolutely will make a bowl. And they do have 3 gimme games, I don't think Louisville, while obv not elite, counts as a gimme game, they are still in the top third of a "P5" conference. Unless you meant Arkansas, so yeah, ha. Regardless, I will bet you significant cash they make a bowl. They have a better chance of winning out than of losing 2 of their last 3. 

    EDIT: A scenario exists where Florida plays Baylor in the Sugar Bowl this year. What do you think the line on that game would be? You happily taking Baylor?

  12. 4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

    You guy must vastly overrate Florida.  Tell me which B12 teams they would beat?  Would they beat Washington? Would they beat Iowa or Wisconsin? 

    I mean they've struggled against some pretty terrible teams like Miami, UK, and SCe.

    I don't generally like this phrasing "would beat."  I think Florida would be a dog to OU, equal to Baylor, slight favorite over Texas, KSU, OSU, ISU, solid favorite over Tech and TCU, big favorite over WVU and KU.

    I would pick Florida over Washington on a neutral field, and think they are probably better than Iowa and worse than Wisky.

    I don't think Miami, UK and USCe are quite as bad as you think. I also think a team like Florida (strong D, mediocre O) will have struggle games more often, because the games are lower scoring. I think Baylor is a really good analogue for Florida.

    • Like 1
  13. 1 hour ago, JBJ said:

    All those teams except Minnesota would be favored.

    Georgia lost to a team that won't make a bowl, and every single one of those teams has a win better than UF (well, Penn St might not in Iowa.)

    Nah, several of those teams wouldn't be favored over UGA on a neutral field. Also, Utah and Oregon DEFINITELY don't have a better win than UF, and OU arguably doesn't. 

    1 hour ago, Bill Lumbergh said:
    2 hours ago, markstanco said:
    Which team is better?

    If anyone asked you prior to the Penn State game, would you have said Minnesota was better?

    Minnesota isn't better. PSU threw 3 red zone picks. Minnesota won the game, which is awesome for them, and it counts in the standings. If they can back it up with 4 more, they will and should be in the playoffs. If Minnesota-Penn State happens in the B1G title game, PSU will be favored again. 

    The last hand of poker I played, if you asked me prior to the hand which is better AQ or A9, I would have said AQ. My AQ lost. I still say AQ is better than A9. If a team is expected to beat another 60% of the time, the fact that the other team won doesn't mean the 60% figure was incorrect.

    • Like 1
  14. 11 hours ago, Jhawk said:

    I wouldn’t be against reasonable action. But I’m not putting money on bama in straight up. There are assumptions that bama wins out among other things. DM me some thoughts and let’s talk it through. If we can think of something that gets us to week 13 where the be is off or in the committees hands then I’m in. Not that I’m surly elite but I’m always down for some fun. 

    Here is my proposal, posting it here in case any of the other SEC conspiracy caterwaulers want in:

    If Alabama finishes 11-1 and is not the SEC West representative in the SEC Championship Game:

    • I win the bet if Alabama does not make the playoffs
    • You win the bet if Alabama makes the playoffs and at least one undefeated or 1-loss P5 conference champion does not make the playoffs
    • No action if Alabama makes the playoffs but no undefeated or 1-loss P5 conference champion misses the playoffs

    Obviously no action if Alabama loses another game, or if LSU somehow drops 2 and Bama sneaks into the SEC title game.

  15. 17 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

    Will this be the second LSU v Bama "Game of the Century" that was completely pointless?

    No, Bama is toast barring 2 loss champions elsewhere.

  16. UMass is in the FCS.  They actually play it out on the field in their league. take notes...
    You know it’s an idiotic example...


    Speaking of idiotic, you’re wrong. UMass is FBS not FCS. Good try though!

    The new poll is 100% an insurance policy. 
    Lsu and Georgia with Georgia win - LSU and Georgia in
    lsu and Georgia with Georgia loss - bama and LSU in. 
    Georgia out and LSU win over whoever, LSU and bama in. 
    Only way we don’t get 2 SEC teams is if one of bama or LSU doesn’t take care of business before the CCG. 


    Will you be the first to wager with me? I have all the SECSPN types squawking that Bama will get in but I have money that says Bama isn’t in over any 0 or 1 loss conf champ.
  17. I guess it has more to do when you lose and not “body of work”. If it’s body of work then bama should be #4 over Georgia.


    What is Bamas body of work? UGA beat ND and UF.

    It’s about what I expected except I don’t get the Utah love. They have less ranked wins and more losses than Minnesota. Also don’t get Utah over PSU or really OU.
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