That PFF article is just bad. Bama 50% to get in? Clemson getting in without winning the ACC? Yeah, no.
The 3 unbeatens are obviously locks if they win out.
The B1G champion is a lock if it is 12-1 tOSU, 12-1 Penn State, or 12-1 Minnesota who beats Ohio State in the title game
The SEC champion is a lock if it is 12-1 LSU or 12-1 UGA
Then there is a muddle, which I think looks like this:
1. 12-1 non SEC-champion LSU
2. 12-1 non B1G-champion tOSU
3. 12-1 PAC champion Oregon
4. 12-1 B12 champion Oklahoma
5. 12-1 B1G champion Minnesota beating PSU in title game
6. 12-1 ACC champion Clemson
7. 12-1 PAC champion Utah
8. 11-1 non B1G-champion tOSU
9. 11-1 non SEC-champion Bama
10. 11-2 SEC champion UGA
11. 12-1 B12 champion Baylor
12. 11-2 B1G champion Wisconsin
13. 11-2 PAC champion Oregon
Other than Wisconsin and 2-loss Oregon, which are definitely below the rest listed, you could put these 12 in a lot of different orders and I wouldn't be totally shocked.