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TXSooner518

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Everything posted by TXSooner518

  1. Yeah calling the AT is horrendous in cash or tourney for that many chips. Even worse with four live players behind you. Same with calling 76o or J7. Also terrible as tourney chip leader unless the jam is so short that it is +EV to call. Being deeper doesn’t change the equation of calling preflop jams much other than a few weird ICM situations, almost entirely right on bubble or at final table.
  2. I ate here on Saturday. Got a 5 beer flight for $5 which was a hell of a deal. Brisket stew was great. Pork steak with 2 sides for $12 also excellent and a hell of a deal. Did see some people ordering pizza at the brewery which also looked excellent. The ribs are baby backs rather than his standard. Very good, but preferred the standard. The brisket is the same good stuff as always. One annoyance - you sit and someone eventually takes your order, then eventually brings it. A lot slower than the "standard" Q experience. Sit and enjoy your cheap flight.
  3. TXSooner518

    SNL 45

    Macy's was great. ScarJo has slipped a bit, she was my overall top seed for quite a while. Still easily in the field of course. Also had no idea she was with Jost.
  4. This. Without the speech, snap call, shrug, roll on. But when they say "I don't think you have ___", they 100.0% of the time can beat ___. See Rounders. "I don't think you got the spades Teddy, so I'm gonna go all in." That's where you need KK and say "You're right. I don't...have...ze ten. Kings fooool." Def not one to lose sleep over, just a gross flop and you could have lost a lot more. He just tried to let you off the hook.
  5. So annoying. Even worse when they justify it with "I got the same hand two hands in a row" or whatever. So last hand you got the 4th and 13th cards, this time you got the 3rd and 12th. Do you think all those cards somehow stayed exactly in a row, or is it maybe a random occurrence?
  6. If you go $200 and he jams, we have to call $550 to win $830, so we need 39.8% equity. Against literally KK+ we have 23%. Against QQ+, AKs we have 52%. So basically if he does this half the time with QQ or AKs we gotta go with it. We played our hand a bit oddly, so I think there is just no way we can say 99% AA. He never just decides you can't have the blade, has AKo, has blockers to AA or KK and decides you fold pairs a lot and if you don't, it's a flip? Never? He's always just flatting those hands to play them multiway out of position? HH of your full double+ with JJ?
  7. Nothing wrong with the KK line, especially when we are OOP and have an aggro in the hand. Also some players won't put you on KK+ since you just called multiway the first time. I don't think he HAS to have AA. If you think his 5b range is only going to be AA, then 4b smaller and then fold to the 5b, but it's gonna be really rare to accurately range him to {AA}, especially when we played our hand nonstandard (not saying it wasn't good/fine, just not standard).
  8. TXSooner518

    SNL 45

    Yeah, it was really weird. Worst ep of the season IMO.
  9. Just might be my first Main Event since 2015!
  10. Lol it’s a 5 unit sample size. Again, people are completely clueless as to probability and statistics. It’s not some amazing thing that a 30% event has failed to happen 5 times in a row. 8 of the last 11 NCAA BB champs have been a 1 seed, one was a 2, one a 3. OMG HOW DO THEY KNOW WHO IS GOOD WITH EYEBALLLLLLS EDIT to add: On top of that, the seeding isn't really a "power" rank, it's a resume rank. LSU isn't the 1 seed because of some overwhelming feeling they are the "best" team, but they have the best resume. I think that most observers think LSU, Clemson, and tOSU are really close as far as who is "best." Any of the 3 would not be a surprise to win the title. But, for example, nearly everyone agreed tOSU should get the 2 seed over Clemson, yet Clemson is a slight favorite. Does Clemson winning mean the "eyeballs" are wrong again? Of course not. Sagarin Predictor says LSU is the 4th best team in the country. Most computer systems have LSU at 2 or 3. But if they don't win the title, you'll be back here talking about eyeballs being wrong, when the eyeballs don't have LSU #1.
  11. The more teams you have, the more seeding matters, you start adding in dramatically weaker teams, byes, home games, etc. Yes, neutral site games between only 4 top teams doesn't make seeding matter as much. For example, in the model you listed, Memphis is a considerably easier game for LSU than Baylor and Oregon for tOSU and Clemson, despite it being razor-close on who deserves the 1 at least. Most observers think the 3 teams are pretty close power-wise, with Clemson's resume obviously considerably weaker. I said with all champs and only champs. That model doesn't have all champs and doesn't have 'only' champs. It has Baylor and UGA, who aren't champs. It is missing 4 teams who won their conference.
  12. A playoff with all conference champs and only conference champs will suck suck suck. Every OOC game is now an NFL preseason game. Fuck that nine ways from Sunday.
  13. You would still have to seed it, which dramatically impacts likelihood of winning, so I still say I'm right!
  14. The Giants were very obviously not better than the Patriots. They didn't even go 1-0 vs the Pats, they were 1-1. Again, you seem to have a hard time grasping that the best team doesn't always win. The Giants were the 2007 NFL Champions, but not the best team in the NFL in 2007. It's really not at all a hard concept. If you ran this year's CFP 1000 times, you would probably get a breakdown of roughly 300 LSU titles, 300 tOSU titles, 300 Clemson titles, and 100 OU titles. Whichever team wins this year won't prove to be the year's best team, but they will be the 2020 CFP Champion, which isn't exactly the same thing. Side not - giant LOL at you saying "why even play the regular season" while arguing that a 9-7 team was better than a 16-0 team, which beat that 9-7 team in the regular season. You're arguing AGAINST the validity of the regular season there. To Teddy Bear - NO LOSS MAXIMUMS AT ALL. They encourage pussy scheduling. Use the formula you advocate above, which considers SOS, MOV, etc., and if you're below a certain level, you're out.
  15. But that is the point. You're giving "the #1 team lost" as proof they weren't the #1 team. Also "playing it on the field" will by definition again include some subjective judgments about who the better teams are, for inclusion in the bracket. There is no way to do it otherwise, unless you want a 130 team playoff. Same thing happens in basketball, which settles its champ on the court, but still relies on a committee to decide who the best teams are for both inclusion and seeding.
  16. Being the best team doesn't mean you always win the games. A 60-40 edge would be a HUGE edge to have in a game between top 4 teams, and yet if the 1 seed is a 60/40 fave against every other team in the playoff, they only win the playoff 36% of the time. If you have a 53-47 edge on the other teams, you win the playoff 28% of the time. Probability is a bitch, and virtually no one in sports understands them.
  17. I'm not saying he deserves the award. I think the trip to NYC is deserved. Fair. Would have also liked to seen Hubbard get an invite. Fair points for sure. I will say he made multiple great plays throwing the ball in the B12 title game, including one where CD just couldn't quiiiiiiiite get his hands under it after Jalen kept the play alive and made a great situational throw, which allows OU to likely win in regulation if he catches it. He also threw the ball a ton, and very well, in the rally in Waco to save the season. And yeah, his toughness and leadership (being voted captain as a senior transfer says a lot, as does the sheer number of Bama fans who are rooting for him) to me do help elevate him as a player and make him deserving of the invit.e
  18. Jalen definitely had some turnovers at inopportune times. He did also, despite what WBT said, finish with a higher pass efficiency rating than every previous season in history (though behind 2019 Tua and 2019 Burrow). That rating doesn't include his 219/1255/18 TD rush stats (or his receiving TD!). His numbers, not just his helmet/hype, justify his inclusion, though of course Burrow will very deservingly win the award.
  19. No, that's not what I'm arguing. You aren't arguing (or at least weren't previously) that you wanted game results (and not team strength) to be the determining factor. You were arguing that there is no way to actually know which team is better if they haven't played each other, which is an idiotic stance. I disagree with solely results-based, and prefer a blend of analytics and win-losses, basically the most deserving of the best teams. But at least solely results-based is a defensible position, as opposed to the previous nonsense. What you were previously saying is in your hypo, who knows if Bama would win that game. Now you are saying, they would win, but their results don't justify inclusion, which I can't argue against, because that part is just difference of opinion.
  20. OK you keep ignoring the point. So let's go. Straight up no spread. Every game I win you pay me $100, every game you win I pay you $110. Free money for you since after all, these teams haven't played. No POSSIBLE WAY to know who is better except for figure skating horse shit right? They are all exactly 50/50, so you getting 110/100 is a GREAT deal for you!! Oh wait, you won't do it, because even you don't believe this bullshit, you just don't like it because a lot of top teams are in a conference that hurts your feelies. I get Bama, you get Michigan. I get LSU, you get OU. I get UCF, you get Marshall. I get Florida, you get Virginia. I get App State, you get UAB. I get Cincy, you get BC. I get Louisiana, you get Miami (OH).
  21. So you're saying if someone said "hey a college football team is going to play, if they win, you get $1 million, and if they lose, we shoot you in the face. You can have Baylor, Florida, or Alabama" that you would be like "herp derrrrp who's to say, they all seem equal, just pick one at random"? Bull fucking shit.
  22. No, I mean to decide if the P5/G5 champ automatically gets in. I would also use it for the 2 or 3 wildcards, yes. I would be more OK with losing the qualification cap on the P5 champ than the G5 inclusion. I would be even more OK losing the qualification cap if all 8 teams are seeded, rather than the conf champs getting the top 5 seeds, and you get some perverse result where the 4 seed gets the easiest 1st round game, because the 5 seed is trash UVA or some such, and then the 3 seed gets fucking Clemson in the first round. UGA has a very strong D that can shut down non-dynamic offenses. They did not shut down OU in 2017, Bama or Texas in 2018, LSU in 2019. UGA's offense is very pedestrian, especially against teams that they can't just overwhelm with talent. Georgia played 4 ranked teams this year. They scored 24, 23, 21, and 10 points, and also scored 19 against Texas A&M, 27 against Mizzou and 21 against Kentucky. Oh, and 17 in overtime against South Fucking Carolina. Sorry, this is not one of the 4 best teams in football, and only a fool would take them straight up against Alabama.
  23. Nope, I recognize that it's not a guarantee. See Mitch's post below. OU scheduled an away game at a P5 team that is frequently upper-tier, and a top G5 team, and both disappointed. Clemson tried to schedule a good game, I'm not blaming them for their OOC schedule really, though I question if they need Charlotte AND Wofford. But you put yourself in position by playing P5 home and aways (and real P5 home and aways, not Northwestern or Duke or Vandy or whatever). Sure, OU's OOC didn't work out this year. Luckily, there were only 4 P5 conference champs with 1 or less losses, so they didn't have to beauty pageant. If either Utah or Oregon loses one less game, they are in a tight battle either way. I think they go over Utah (whose OOC was worse) and Oregon (whose OOC was better) goes over them. I 100% guarantee that if Bama played UGA right now, Bama would be favored, yes. Every single power rating system has Bama > UGA. Common opponents: LSU - Bama L by 5, UGA L by 27 A&M - Bama W by 19, UGA W by 6 Tenn - Bama W by 22, UGA W by 29 Auburn - Bama L by 3, UGA W by 7 S. Carolina - Bama W by 24 , UGA L by 3 So among 5 common opponents (almost half the schedule), Bama outperformed UGA by 45 points (9 ppg), with each going 3-2. What sport are YOU watching, that you legit don't think Alabama is one of the 8 best teams this year? Not saying resume, saying team. What, in your opinion, given the above makes UGA better than Bama? I like qualifications for the autobid, but definitely not loss caps, that just encourages garbage scheduling. Make it a formula that incorporates humans/power ratings, which helps to incent tough scheduling.
  24. I feel pretty sure about it. Oregon started outside the Top 10 in the polls. The Pac 12 cannibalized itself, and the narrative would be that Oregon and Utah were 11-1, but neither had even played a ranked team between the two of them. Oregon got credibility by controlling the game with Auburn, especially when Auburn proved to be a very good team. Similarly, I think OU jumps Utah if Utah beats Oregon (not positive, but think so, unless Utah smoked them), but if Utah had a really good OOC win, that changes things. And also with Clemson, if they lost they were toast, but if they had beaten a top 15 team OOC, that would have helped insulate against a loss. Last, we will always be arguing about style points/etc. Why should Memphis go to the 8 team playoff over Boise or App State? Or let's say we are discussing wild cards. Should UGA's SEC title game loss put them back behind Bama? I mean, if not, we are punishing UGA for making the game and rewarding Bama for not. But should we ignore a pretty conclusive data point on whether UGA is elite/better than Bama? What % of people would take UGA over Bama on a neutral field right now? I definitely would not.
  25. LOLOLOL. This argument is absolutely ridiculous. Again, if you really think this, you should just blindly mash bets on every underdog. I mean, OU hasn't played LSU, and they each beat their common opponent by 7, so OU +11 is free money since it's absolutely a coinflip! If Memphis played tOSU in an 8 team playoff, you think it is 50-50 as to which team wins, since after all, we have no way to know that tOSU is better than Memphis? No one is dumb enough to believe that. Then teams with that meta-strategy can't bitch when it blows up in their face. If Baylor had beaten a P5 team in 2014 instead of 3 total bottom-feeders, they very well might have gone over tOSU. If OU had played Tulsa instead of tOSU in 2017, they might just have been watching tOSU in the playoffs instead. Georgia scheduling and beating ND in 2017 and this year kept them in the playoff convo. Auburn beating Oregon would have gotten them in for sure at 11-2. Sure, if you're a West Virginia or Tennessee trying to rebuild to get back into the upper levels, scheduling some wins to build confidence, get bowls, etc., makes sense. But it's not gonna get you into the playoffs if there is a debate.
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