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Everything posted by TXSooner518
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i actually don't hate barrelling 22 there. I think it's very hard for 33-99 to call flop, and he often will fold gutshots. Turn he folds most jacks, all gutshots, all other pairs. It's funny b/c I feel like normally you wanna barrel more than I do.
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Disagree that beating Washington and Oregon would equal three wins over Baylor and Texas plus wins over Oklahoma State and Iowa State. Oregon is a better win than those 5, but those 5 are all better/equal to Washington, and OU would have 5 good wins compared to 2. And you're being a bit silly on the "chickenshit". Playing Houston and at UCLA as 2 of your 3 games is significantly above P5 average for OOC scheduling. I botched the UCLA, they had 6 of the last 7 before this year, in glancing at it I thought the "blank" for 2018 was for 2019. OU entered the agreement to play UCLA in Nov. 2013. UCLA went 9-5 in 2012 and 10-3 in 2013 and appeared to be on the rise under Mora. Mora was a hot name for other jobs. You're being disingenous with that. Houston has had a winning record 12 of the last 14 seasons. That series was announced in 2014, Houston was 26-13 the 3 years preceding the announcement. KSU hasn't lost to ISU, they haven't played. Also USC got absolutely boatraced by Oregon in a way KSU hasn't yet. And BYU is dramatically worse than any KSU loss. So USC's 3 good losses roughly equal KSU's 3 as far as teams played, with only USC getting murdered, and also USC adding a shit loss.
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Don't get me wrong, it isn't likely, it was more for illustrative purposes. And I'm not rock-solid sure what the Sugar Bowl selection process for the SEC team is (I know the B12 champ goes if they don't go to playoff, and if B12 champ goes to playoff, B12 title game loser must go to Sugar, no options). And yeah, it would involve Alabama worming into the playoff lol. Georgia loses to Auburn and Aggy, LSU over UF in SEC title game, 2 loss conference champs elsewhere, or a 12-1 B12 champ Baylor. Not really fair to say OU went chickenshit on the OOC. They played a team that has been a top G5 team, and a road game against a P5 team that's been bowl-eligible 6 of the last 7 seasons and is solid traditional team. They can't control that they both are quite a bit below average this year. That said, they have the schedule they have, and you can ding them for it, but can't really call it chickenshit. I mean, would scheduling @Minnesota have actually been any more "gutsy" than @UCLA? I also would say both KSU and Texas are above "mediocre" and KSU is better than USC, come on. What do you think would give Utah a better resume than OU if both win out? OU would likely have 4 ranked wins, with Utah having 1, with OU having a solid chance at their loss being ranked, and Utah's unranked. Have fun at UGA-Auburn!
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FPI has Florida's defensive efficiency at 11. Huck's Adjusted Stats has it at 12. Both metrics and Sagarin have UF as a top 12 team overall. For Kentucky, they absolutely will make a bowl. And they do have 3 gimme games, I don't think Louisville, while obv not elite, counts as a gimme game, they are still in the top third of a "P5" conference. Unless you meant Arkansas, so yeah, ha. Regardless, I will bet you significant cash they make a bowl. They have a better chance of winning out than of losing 2 of their last 3. EDIT: A scenario exists where Florida plays Baylor in the Sugar Bowl this year. What do you think the line on that game would be? You happily taking Baylor?
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I don't generally like this phrasing "would beat." I think Florida would be a dog to OU, equal to Baylor, slight favorite over Texas, KSU, OSU, ISU, solid favorite over Tech and TCU, big favorite over WVU and KU. I would pick Florida over Washington on a neutral field, and think they are probably better than Iowa and worse than Wisky. I don't think Miami, UK and USCe are quite as bad as you think. I also think a team like Florida (strong D, mediocre O) will have struggle games more often, because the games are lower scoring. I think Baylor is a really good analogue for Florida.
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Nah, several of those teams wouldn't be favored over UGA on a neutral field. Also, Utah and Oregon DEFINITELY don't have a better win than UF, and OU arguably doesn't. If anyone asked you prior to the Penn State game, would you have said Minnesota was better? Minnesota isn't better. PSU threw 3 red zone picks. Minnesota won the game, which is awesome for them, and it counts in the standings. If they can back it up with 4 more, they will and should be in the playoffs. If Minnesota-Penn State happens in the B1G title game, PSU will be favored again. The last hand of poker I played, if you asked me prior to the hand which is better AQ or A9, I would have said AQ. My AQ lost. I still say AQ is better than A9. If a team is expected to beat another 60% of the time, the fact that the other team won doesn't mean the 60% figure was incorrect.
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Here is my proposal, posting it here in case any of the other SEC conspiracy caterwaulers want in: If Alabama finishes 11-1 and is not the SEC West representative in the SEC Championship Game: I win the bet if Alabama does not make the playoffs You win the bet if Alabama makes the playoffs and at least one undefeated or 1-loss P5 conference champion does not make the playoffs No action if Alabama makes the playoffs but no undefeated or 1-loss P5 conference champion misses the playoffs Obviously no action if Alabama loses another game, or if LSU somehow drops 2 and Bama sneaks into the SEC title game.
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Put money on it then.
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No, Bama is toast barring 2 loss champions elsewhere.
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Speaking of idiotic, you’re wrong. UMass is FBS not FCS. Good try though! Will you be the first to wager with me? I have all the SECSPN types squawking that Bama will get in but I have money that says Bama isn’t in over any 0 or 1 loss conf champ.
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What is Bamas body of work? UGA beat ND and UF. It’s about what I expected except I don’t get the Utah love. They have less ranked wins and more losses than Minnesota. Also don’t get Utah over PSU or really OU.
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Alabama hasn't played UMass this season. Do you know which team is better?
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Ha yep. EXTEND THE GAME! Better to have a 20% chance to win later than a 40% chance to win but find out immediately you lost! Also prepare for lots of talk of "keep it a one-possession game" except that until you attempt the 2pc, you don't actually know if it's a 1 or 2 possession game. It is obvious that more knowledge is better than less, except EXTEND THE GAME.
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Appreciate the fair and reasoned responses. I do still object to that many teams outside of the top 10 freerolling a spot, even though they haven't won as many, historically speaking. Hopefully if it comes to pass, proposals of modified scheduling and 1 vs 2 CCGs will prevail, which eliminates a huge chunk of the problem, and makes the CCGs as play-in games much more exciting.
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I notice none of the SEC screamers have taken me up on my offer to wager regarding Bama not getting in over a 0 or 1 loss champion, which I've posted in multiple threads.
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People just can't grasp the concept of actually being able to WIN THE GAME IN REGULATION having value. BUT WHAT IF YOU LOSE. Also for some reason BUT WHAT IF YOU MISS only applies to the 2pc, but not the XP, which is now missed on a reasonable basis. So infuriating that people who make a living talking sports can't grasp it. You can pick one of two games: 1) we flip a coin and if it is heads I pay you $100 and if it's tails you pay me $90 2) we roll a die. If it is 1 or 2 I pay you $80, if it is 3 or 4 no one pays anything, if it is 5 or 6 you pay me $100 Coaches literally choose game 1 because they get paid half the time instead of 1/3 of the time.
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1/3 of the non-SEC conference title game winners weren't top 10, so you can't say it is a once a decade thing. The last few years haven't been as bad. Do 2000-2014 next and let me know. Also, having the locked G5 spot really exacerbates the difference between 1 and 2, when often the margin is razor-thin. Look at the difference in playing #20 Boise or #7 Miss State in 2014 or #18 Houston or #7 tOSU (who was quite possibly the best team in the country, losing only 1 game, which they never trailed until 0:00 on the clock in a monsoon) in 2015, or Western Michigan or an OU team that was red hot and playing as well as anyone at the end of the year in 2016. Just too giant a difference in the 7 and 8 seeds in those seasons. I would be fine saying if the G5 champ is top 12 they get a spot, so UCF would have been in the last two seasons.
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I don't object specifically to the 10-6 national champion, I just object as a fan who wants the best and most entertaining product on the field. I'm pretty cool with the "best" team from each P5 conference getting in, though imagining the ACC without Clemson is a scary thought as far as eating up a playoff spot. It's just that most conferences aren't designed to send their "best" team. There have been a few articles lately about the bigger conferences abandoning divisions, going to pods, and making their title games 1 vs. 2. That would ease my concerns. TL/DR: 2/3 of teams in conference title games aren't ranked in the top 10, so it isn't a fake scenario. 9 times in 30 ACC, B1G and PAC title games, almost 1/3, NEITHER team has even been in the top 10. OOOH PLAY IN GAME. The data: 2003 KSU is a better example of a meh champ than 2001 CU. CU was 10-2, while KSU had 3 losses in the reg season, including to Marshall. One thing you're missing is that many of these conferences only recently started doing championship games, which opens the door to bullshit champions like 2012 Wisconsin, which was 4-4 in conference, 7-5 in regular season. Rankings in the ACC title game since 2005 with winner bolded: 22 vs. 5 16 vs. 23 6 vs. 12 25 vs. 18 12 vs. 25 12 vs. 20 5 vs. 21 13 vs. NR 1 vs. 20 2 vs. 12 1 vs. 8 3 vs. 19 1 vs. 7 2 vs. NR Obviously since 2014, there has been an elite team which has saved the bacon by going unbeaten, but I count 3 of the 14 games which aren't silly as a play-in game, and this year will be 3 of 15 as it will again be top 4 vs NR. Six times in an eight year span, the ACC would have sent a team into the playoffs that wasn't in the top 10, and 5 of 14 games have neither team in the top 10. The B12 has only had two winners of its title game not be in the top 10 - Texas in 97 and KSU in 2003. However, in 12 of the 17 years, one of the teams wasn't in the top 10. The PAC has had two straight title games with neither team in the top 10 and a non-top 10 team has been in the game 6 of the 8 years. 2 non top-10 winners. The B1G has had a title game with neither team in the top 10 in 2 of the 8 title games so far, and a non-top 10 team in 4 of the 8 years. 2 non-top 10 winners. The SEC has never had a title game with neither team in the top 10, and a non-top 10 team has been in it 17 of the 27 years, though the non-top 10 team only has won 2. So total there have been 13 teams win a P5 title game without being a top 10 team. Not counting SEC, that's 11 out of 47 years, so about a 1 in 4 chance of a non-SEC P5 champ being outside the top 10, so we could estimate that roughly every season we have a non-top 10 team in the playoffs, with some seasons obviously having none and some having 2. A non-top 10 team would be playing for a playoff spot in 13/18 ACC title games, 12/17 B12, 6/8 PAC, 4/8 B1G and 17/27 SEC. So 52 out of 78 teams (67%) in these "play in" games aren't top 10 teams. Also, when the top 5 team loses to the trash team, that top 5 team now eats an at-large, so you end up with actual top 10 teams being left out of wild-card battles. It becomes worse if we lock in a G5 spot, rather than have it qualification based.
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I like UCLA and UMass as well. Also Florida, Michigan, Penn State.
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I mean, the OU-ISU game was 42-41 at that point in Norman. Also, you think the team with "momentum" wins more often in OT, but in fact it is the better team that wins. I will bet you a lot of money that if you compare the WP of "team that scored last to force OT" vs "team that was favored to win", "team that was favored to win" will be higher. You aren't 100% on an XP. In the NFL, XPs are 93% now after the change. This was in wind and snow, so less than that. Also, if the Panthers are actually 50/50 to hit a 2pc, and more than 50/50 to win in OT then going for 2 is even better than Bob posted, especially since they are more like 90% to make an XP, meaning more like 81% to hit them both. This was better before they ruined onside kicks, but yeah. Teams always burn the entire clock to get the TD. They need to allow you the option of kicking off or taking it 4th and 15 from your own 35. It was actually great for ISU that they stopped to review. The play clock was running down and ISU was unprepared to run a play and were about to get a delay of game, so they would have had to run the play from the 7. If there was less time left, Riley def should have taken a timeout if ISU wasn't going to get a DOG, but with 30 seconds left, I'm OK saving the 3 timeouts to maximize the chance of answering with a GWFG. Sure, but neither of those was the case. The point is, you should default to going for 2 when you score a TD in the 4th when down 14, and only kick if there's a specific reason to, instead of the opposite. It's a closer decision when scoring a TD down 1, and you should rely more exclusively on the game. Momentum is a consideration, but drastically behind things like which team is better, which team is home, critical injuries, red zone offense/defense proficiencies, kicker strength/weakness, etc.
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If we go to 8 with autobids, I would want the first round at campus sites, and would prefer strongly either divisions are done away with, or there is a minimum qualification. No reason why a team like Miami this year or other random 6-6 teams that have made conference title games should have a playoff spot.
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“Committee has proven wins and losses don’t matter by never in 5 years selecting a team with more than 1 loss”. Ok sure cool.
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So MP says he raise-folded KK with 11 big blinds??? Lol gtfo. Were y’all on the bubble and mincash is a million dollars? With both players so short I actually don’t like a 3bet small. Depending on villains and my image I would either just jam or flat and check-jam 95% of flops. We are so shallow we aren’t folding flops and we turn our hand faceup when we 3b small this shallow.
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