Nope, I recognize that it's not a guarantee. See Mitch's post below. OU scheduled an away game at a P5 team that is frequently upper-tier, and a top G5 team, and both disappointed. Clemson tried to schedule a good game, I'm not blaming them for their OOC schedule really, though I question if they need Charlotte AND Wofford. But you put yourself in position by playing P5 home and aways (and real P5 home and aways, not Northwestern or Duke or Vandy or whatever).
Sure, OU's OOC didn't work out this year. Luckily, there were only 4 P5 conference champs with 1 or less losses, so they didn't have to beauty pageant. If either Utah or Oregon loses one less game, they are in a tight battle either way. I think they go over Utah (whose OOC was worse) and Oregon (whose OOC was better) goes over them.
I 100% guarantee that if Bama played UGA right now, Bama would be favored, yes. Every single power rating system has Bama > UGA.
Common opponents:
LSU - Bama L by 5, UGA L by 27
A&M - Bama W by 19, UGA W by 6
Tenn - Bama W by 22, UGA W by 29
Auburn - Bama L by 3, UGA W by 7
S. Carolina - Bama W by 24 , UGA L by 3
So among 5 common opponents (almost half the schedule), Bama outperformed UGA by 45 points (9 ppg), with each going 3-2.
What sport are YOU watching, that you legit don't think Alabama is one of the 8 best teams this year? Not saying resume, saying team. What, in your opinion, given the above makes UGA better than Bama?
I like qualifications for the autobid, but definitely not loss caps, that just encourages garbage scheduling. Make it a formula that incorporates humans/power ratings, which helps to incent tough scheduling.