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TXSooner518

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Everything posted by TXSooner518

  1. Put money on it then.
  2. No, Bama is toast barring 2 loss champions elsewhere.
  3. Speaking of idiotic, you’re wrong. UMass is FBS not FCS. Good try though! Will you be the first to wager with me? I have all the SECSPN types squawking that Bama will get in but I have money that says Bama isn’t in over any 0 or 1 loss conf champ.
  4. What is Bamas body of work? UGA beat ND and UF. It’s about what I expected except I don’t get the Utah love. They have less ranked wins and more losses than Minnesota. Also don’t get Utah over PSU or really OU.
  5. Alabama hasn't played UMass this season. Do you know which team is better?
  6. Ha yep. EXTEND THE GAME! Better to have a 20% chance to win later than a 40% chance to win but find out immediately you lost! Also prepare for lots of talk of "keep it a one-possession game" except that until you attempt the 2pc, you don't actually know if it's a 1 or 2 possession game. It is obvious that more knowledge is better than less, except EXTEND THE GAME.
  7. Appreciate the fair and reasoned responses. I do still object to that many teams outside of the top 10 freerolling a spot, even though they haven't won as many, historically speaking. Hopefully if it comes to pass, proposals of modified scheduling and 1 vs 2 CCGs will prevail, which eliminates a huge chunk of the problem, and makes the CCGs as play-in games much more exciting.
  8. I notice none of the SEC screamers have taken me up on my offer to wager regarding Bama not getting in over a 0 or 1 loss champion, which I've posted in multiple threads.
  9. Yeah! We should discuss that for 90 posts or so!
  10. People just can't grasp the concept of actually being able to WIN THE GAME IN REGULATION having value. BUT WHAT IF YOU LOSE. Also for some reason BUT WHAT IF YOU MISS only applies to the 2pc, but not the XP, which is now missed on a reasonable basis. So infuriating that people who make a living talking sports can't grasp it. You can pick one of two games: 1) we flip a coin and if it is heads I pay you $100 and if it's tails you pay me $90 2) we roll a die. If it is 1 or 2 I pay you $80, if it is 3 or 4 no one pays anything, if it is 5 or 6 you pay me $100 Coaches literally choose game 1 because they get paid half the time instead of 1/3 of the time.
  11. 1/3 of the non-SEC conference title game winners weren't top 10, so you can't say it is a once a decade thing. The last few years haven't been as bad. Do 2000-2014 next and let me know. Also, having the locked G5 spot really exacerbates the difference between 1 and 2, when often the margin is razor-thin. Look at the difference in playing #20 Boise or #7 Miss State in 2014 or #18 Houston or #7 tOSU (who was quite possibly the best team in the country, losing only 1 game, which they never trailed until 0:00 on the clock in a monsoon) in 2015, or Western Michigan or an OU team that was red hot and playing as well as anyone at the end of the year in 2016. Just too giant a difference in the 7 and 8 seeds in those seasons. I would be fine saying if the G5 champ is top 12 they get a spot, so UCF would have been in the last two seasons.
  12. Most of Herman's go/no go decisions are good, though he does punt on 4th and shortish from opp territory too much, it's just that many of the playcalls have been beyond silly.
  13. I don't object specifically to the 10-6 national champion, I just object as a fan who wants the best and most entertaining product on the field. I'm pretty cool with the "best" team from each P5 conference getting in, though imagining the ACC without Clemson is a scary thought as far as eating up a playoff spot. It's just that most conferences aren't designed to send their "best" team. There have been a few articles lately about the bigger conferences abandoning divisions, going to pods, and making their title games 1 vs. 2. That would ease my concerns. TL/DR: 2/3 of teams in conference title games aren't ranked in the top 10, so it isn't a fake scenario. 9 times in 30 ACC, B1G and PAC title games, almost 1/3, NEITHER team has even been in the top 10. OOOH PLAY IN GAME. The data: 2003 KSU is a better example of a meh champ than 2001 CU. CU was 10-2, while KSU had 3 losses in the reg season, including to Marshall. One thing you're missing is that many of these conferences only recently started doing championship games, which opens the door to bullshit champions like 2012 Wisconsin, which was 4-4 in conference, 7-5 in regular season. Rankings in the ACC title game since 2005 with winner bolded: 22 vs. 5 16 vs. 23 6 vs. 12 25 vs. 18 12 vs. 25 12 vs. 20 5 vs. 21 13 vs. NR 1 vs. 20 2 vs. 12 1 vs. 8 3 vs. 19 1 vs. 7 2 vs. NR Obviously since 2014, there has been an elite team which has saved the bacon by going unbeaten, but I count 3 of the 14 games which aren't silly as a play-in game, and this year will be 3 of 15 as it will again be top 4 vs NR. Six times in an eight year span, the ACC would have sent a team into the playoffs that wasn't in the top 10, and 5 of 14 games have neither team in the top 10. The B12 has only had two winners of its title game not be in the top 10 - Texas in 97 and KSU in 2003. However, in 12 of the 17 years, one of the teams wasn't in the top 10. The PAC has had two straight title games with neither team in the top 10 and a non-top 10 team has been in the game 6 of the 8 years. 2 non top-10 winners. The B1G has had a title game with neither team in the top 10 in 2 of the 8 title games so far, and a non-top 10 team in 4 of the 8 years. 2 non-top 10 winners. The SEC has never had a title game with neither team in the top 10, and a non-top 10 team has been in it 17 of the 27 years, though the non-top 10 team only has won 2. So total there have been 13 teams win a P5 title game without being a top 10 team. Not counting SEC, that's 11 out of 47 years, so about a 1 in 4 chance of a non-SEC P5 champ being outside the top 10, so we could estimate that roughly every season we have a non-top 10 team in the playoffs, with some seasons obviously having none and some having 2. A non-top 10 team would be playing for a playoff spot in 13/18 ACC title games, 12/17 B12, 6/8 PAC, 4/8 B1G and 17/27 SEC. So 52 out of 78 teams (67%) in these "play in" games aren't top 10 teams. Also, when the top 5 team loses to the trash team, that top 5 team now eats an at-large, so you end up with actual top 10 teams being left out of wild-card battles. It becomes worse if we lock in a G5 spot, rather than have it qualification based.
  14. I like UCLA and UMass as well. Also Florida, Michigan, Penn State.
  15. I mean, the OU-ISU game was 42-41 at that point in Norman. Also, you think the team with "momentum" wins more often in OT, but in fact it is the better team that wins. I will bet you a lot of money that if you compare the WP of "team that scored last to force OT" vs "team that was favored to win", "team that was favored to win" will be higher. You aren't 100% on an XP. In the NFL, XPs are 93% now after the change. This was in wind and snow, so less than that. Also, if the Panthers are actually 50/50 to hit a 2pc, and more than 50/50 to win in OT then going for 2 is even better than Bob posted, especially since they are more like 90% to make an XP, meaning more like 81% to hit them both. This was better before they ruined onside kicks, but yeah. Teams always burn the entire clock to get the TD. They need to allow you the option of kicking off or taking it 4th and 15 from your own 35. It was actually great for ISU that they stopped to review. The play clock was running down and ISU was unprepared to run a play and were about to get a delay of game, so they would have had to run the play from the 7. If there was less time left, Riley def should have taken a timeout if ISU wasn't going to get a DOG, but with 30 seconds left, I'm OK saving the 3 timeouts to maximize the chance of answering with a GWFG. Sure, but neither of those was the case. The point is, you should default to going for 2 when you score a TD in the 4th when down 14, and only kick if there's a specific reason to, instead of the opposite. It's a closer decision when scoring a TD down 1, and you should rely more exclusively on the game. Momentum is a consideration, but drastically behind things like which team is better, which team is home, critical injuries, red zone offense/defense proficiencies, kicker strength/weakness, etc.
  16. If we go to 8 with autobids, I would want the first round at campus sites, and would prefer strongly either divisions are done away with, or there is a minimum qualification. No reason why a team like Miami this year or other random 6-6 teams that have made conference title games should have a playoff spot.
  17. “Committee has proven wins and losses don’t matter by never in 5 years selecting a team with more than 1 loss”. Ok sure cool.
  18. So MP says he raise-folded KK with 11 big blinds??? Lol gtfo. Were y’all on the bubble and mincash is a million dollars? With both players so short I actually don’t like a 3bet small. Depending on villains and my image I would either just jam or flat and check-jam 95% of flops. We are so shallow we aren’t folding flops and we turn our hand faceup when we 3b small this shallow.
  19. But you can’t vary your raise size based on your hand, esp in a “regular group” tourney. We need to also be able to squeeze here sometimes IMO.
  20. How deep are y’all? I know button started wjth 9k or so what about you and MP?
  21. Close between OU and Oregon. Keep in mind by then the loss comparison could easily be Oregon lost neutral to 8-4 Auburn and OU lost road to 9-3 Kansas State so not “easily” the worst loss unless you just mean as compared between OU and Bama. Also possible by then that OU has 4 wins over teams in final rankings (Texas, OSU, Baylor, title game) and Bama and Oregon have one each (Auburn and Utah).
  22. MP is either a liar or you should relentlessly bluff him and also help him tie his shoes. I don’t think the AT play was bad. Your raise size was tiny esp being out of position.
  23. The 538 numbers seem about right IMO. The 3% for Wisky would be when they are B1G champs which they can still do. Zero or 1 loss SEC champ is a lock Zero or 1 loss B1G champ is a lock Unbeaten Clemson is a lock Unbeaten Baylor is a lock After that the stew gets murky. I think a 2 loss SEC champ is still a lock bc it will be coming off a win over 12-0 LSU. But how would a 11-2 SEC champ Florida compared with 12-1 SEC runner up LSU when they split the series and LSU win at Texas while Florida played two FCS games? 11-2 SEC champ UGA prob compares a bit better and is almost surely in. I think 12-1 OU and 12-1 Oregon are extremely close. I think 12-1 OU goes over 12-1 Utah. I think all these teams are probably behind a 12–1 tOSU or 12-1 LSU that lost its conf title game. 12-1 Baylor is behind all of the above and also prob behind 12-1 ACC champ Clemson but ahead of 12-1 non champ Clemson. I think 11-1 Bama is right at the same line as 12-1 Baylor or Clemson. Same for an 11-2 B1G champ Wisky. Should be a fun month!
  24. Well I guarantee during the game I didn’t want them to go for 2. I thought OU’s chances were much better in OT than to stop one play. You seem to agree with that so I dunno why you think I wouldn’t feel that way at the time.
  25. Mullet you don’t seem to be disagreeing with me. I said they absolutely should have gone for 2. I said as an OU fan I was hoping they kicked because kicking gave OU a better chance to win the game. I totally agree with your post.
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