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TXSooner518

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Posts posted by TXSooner518



  1. FWIW I dig all of your plays. Didn’t see any that stood out as different from the line I’d take. Really like the AJ float bluff catch


    Almost all just absurd run bad. That said, I don’t like bet-calling QQ on 453-A. What do we think he called flop with then jams turn for a minraise that loses to QQ? I also don’t like betting 88 on A hi into 3 people and when we do and get called, betting a K turn is usually just torching money. If you bet a K hi flop and A turns then we can be repping an A to fold a K.
  2. 52 minutes ago, Kennythetiger said:

    I've never been to the Red River game and have no desire to go, but the enthusiasm of Shag/Surly is contagious and now it's one of my very favorite games to watch on t.v., especially with the 11:00 a.m. kickoffs.  The "Night Before" thread is always highly-entertaining as well.  Two thumbs up all around.  

     

    8 minutes ago, Skipper said:

    Sorry you hate sports

    Ha yeah this. We have a pair of people going with us this year who just love sports, especially football, and aren't OU or Texas fans, but knew this game is on any real sports fan's bucket list.

  3. On 9/30/2019 at 3:18 PM, pepper brooks said:

    first place I ever stayed in Vegas circa summer 1992.  It was the Ramada San Remo back then, and it was about as low rent, $hithole a place as I had ever stayed in my then 21 years of life.  I think only a spring break trip to stay at the Days Inn in Destin Florida may have been worse.  Pretty sure when hooters took over they did noting more than put up some orange paint.  surprised hooters last as long as it did.  Speaking of which, how the heck do Ecalibur, Tropicana, Luxor and even Bally's stay open.  Those places are all absolute dogs.  

    Can't lump those properties in with Hooters. Trop and Bally's specifically have both had major renovations done. Actually feels modern and clean in both casinos, and the renovated rooms at Bally's are completely fine, with a perfect strip location. 

  4. 12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    I didn't say he wasn't doing what every other parent does as well. Maybe putting sunscreen on your kid in a parking lot isn't the wisest choice. Once again, we all do things that aren't the safest but it doesn't mean we can't do better.

     

     

    11 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    You are fighting a losing battle here ind I don’t understand why. 

    Jesus Fucking Christ this. 

  5. On 9/30/2019 at 5:28 PM, A-Tex Devil said:

    They are trying to win Hurts the Heisman

    Ehhhhhhhh. I think they have different goals. Hurts is currently 109th in the country in pass attempts. That doesn't sound like a team airing it out to get him that trophy. He's thrown 85 passes this season. For comparison Mond has thrown 181, Tua 148, Purdy 147, Ehlinger 140, Lawrence 136, Bo Nix 125.

  6. Just found out this girl's big sister is my daughter's cross-country teammate. Just horrendous.

    And everyone needs to read and understand wood's post, hands-free eliminates a bit of the risk, but not the majority. Study after study confirms that. Just get off the goddamn phone while operating a car, period.

    • Like 1
  7. 17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    Apparently in Texas you have

    negligent homicide

    manslaughter

    murder

    capital murder

    with modifiers when appropriate. 

    Sentencing should follow, and as discussed plenty here murder was her appropriate charge and what she was convicted of. So the sentence should be appropriate for the conviction. 

    If the argument is that most sentences are too heavy and amber’s is fair, then we need to be modifying a bunch of sentences and guidelines. 

    Right, and manslaughter can be 2-20. Murder can be 5-99. What that indicates is that some offenses that are "murder" are worth 5 years and some are worth 99. I think, and I think most agree, that in the overall scope of offenses that fall into the "murder" bucket, this is pretty far to the lower end of the "awfulness" spectrum. Obviously, anything that is murder will be "awful", that's why it's a first degree felony. But if you were going to compare this case to another murder conviction drawn at random, chances are very high the other case would be more heinous.

    • Like 1
  8. 11 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

    WTF? I don't have answers to you amazing scenarios here, but what I do know is that walking into a house and shooting a man on his couch and not even attempt to save his life afterwards is worth more than 10 years. 

    Well if you are so willing to speak with such authority and conviction for what is appropriate for a given offense, you should be able to place that offense within the scope of the rest of the criminal justice system.

    Reggie Stephey drove drunk, killed 3 girls, and subjected Jacqui Saburido to some of the worst torture alive. He got less than 10 years. 

    If you give Guyger 40 years for a 90 second flash of horrendous decisionmaking, what the fuck do you give her if she plots, premeditates, and kills Sex Cop's wife so she can have him to herself? What do you give her if she was sick of Botham's noise upstairs so she comes upstairs and shoots him in cold blood?

    It's horrendous that Botham was killed, but you still have to consider the totality of the circumstances, and also what the purpose of prison is, and it isn't (or shouldn't be) just to satisfy reactionary bloodthirst and vengeance. 

    • Like 6
  9. 25 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

    So 10 years for murder is justice? Is that what you are saying?

    You never answered my questions earlier. If you think this is a 25-40 year case, what cases would fall in the 5-15 year range for murder, in your opinion?

    How much $$ would you have to be paid to start a 10 year prison sentence today?

    What is an appropriate sentence, in your opinion, for someone who is smashed drunk, goes the wrong way on the interstate and kills someone?

    For someone who looks down and reads a text, and in that moment, rear-ends a car, killing two kids in the back seat?

    For someone who is in a hurry, guns it through a red light, t-bones and kills someone?

    For someone who holds a drunk girl down at a party and forcibly rapes her?

  10. For those of you who think this should be 20-40 years, what fact pattern that constitutes murder would you think justifies the lower end of the spectrum of the punishment range?

    Also, how much money would someone have to pay you to accept a 10 year prison sentence starting today?

    It's just funny because I leaned very heavily to the state's favor in this case, but I think putting her in prison for a quarter century would be insane, counterproductive, and pointless.

    • Like 8
  11. On 9/30/2019 at 8:28 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

    played for about 3 hours today. bought in for 300, started off ok, climbed up to about $350 when I get KsQx as SB. 1 limper, decent reg makes it $15 from the CO.  folds to me.  I normally fold out of position, but he has been known to raise light.  I call, everyone else folds. Flop comes  T-x-x 2 spades, the x's are low cards.  I check, he checks, turn is Qs.  I check. He bets out $25.  I just call.  river is a low blank,  I check again,  and he takes a while and bets $35.    This really seems suspicious.   I was expecting a check or a bet of $60 or so based on his normal history with me.   My brain tells me to fold. but I call, and he shows AsQx.  sigh.  I deserved that.  

    get to about $450 when I take 2 big hits, first is the decent reg from first hand makes it $22, I am on the button, there are FOUR callers of the $22 before I act.  I look down at JJ.

    I know I need to bet large to get rid of the rando Ax Kx here, but I am also wary of the big starting bet,  I take a bit and make it $120. 

    I figure thats big enough to chase off the rando's and if decent reg has it, hes gonna let me know.   he takes almost no time and calls, everyone else folds.  I know him enough to know hes not calling with AK here with all those folks to act behind.  so I completely shut it down, we check it through on a Q high board, he shows KK.     BTW if he had bet I had already decided to fold. 

    interested in feedback on that one, with there already being $100 in the pot, should I have just made it $100 straight?   I *guess* I could just call there, but that seems like a terrible decision longterm when the flop comes  2 high broadway cards.   I dont think $60 is honestly enough to scare off the randos especially if the decent reg just calls there, we end up going 4-6 to the flop.  Maybe make it $80?   I am not mad about the raise, thats just a partial cooler combined with some terrible players calling big bets.   Just curious what everyone else thinks.

    finally get T5dd on the button, lots of limpers, I make it $15,  5 callers.   yikes.  flop comes 5-5-7 rainbow. checks around to me.  I bet out $15 to build up the pot, EVERYONE calls. turn is 9s giving a flush draw and hitting a huge straight drawing hand.  FTA is that tighter lady I mentioned earlier.  she bets out $25.  now there are 3 callers of that bet.    I make it $120.  (ive got about $120 behind).  She takes a very, very long time, and finally calls, everyone else folds.    I am now pretty worried about my T kicker,  shes caught trips several times in the 2 hours I have been playing,, and shes played it the exact same way calling the large bets from someone else. 

    River is the Js. so a flush draw gets there, plus the straight draws.  She checks.   and I just cant make the bet here.  about the only thing I can beat is a badly played overpair, a random 7x or Jx hand.  but I lose to almost any other 5 hand better than 8-5, plus the straight is kinda just sitting there.   I really didnt think about the flush.    I finally check it back and she shows 5  and throws the other card in the muck.   so she had one of the only 5's I could beat.  dammit.   based on my read of her, I thought there was real strength, so I chickened out and didnt go for the jugular. 

    KQ hand is fine. Folding is fine against a good reg, we have decent offsuit big cards out of position. 3betting is good against someone who loves to ISO limpers. Don't build strategy around what would or would not have worked against your opponent's actual hand. Can't fold river as played here.

    JJ hand, I actually think calling is OK pre. Again, we are here to make money, not win pots. We can play our hand in position, and we are under-repped. If it comes two big cards on the flop, cool, we check-fold and on to the next. We aren't ENTITLED to win the pot just because we have jacks. Also, being concerned that people will call pre with Kx or Ax if we raise smaller is OK. We want our opponents to make a mistake, and calling 3bets with raggedy aces is a mistake, esp since we aren't paying them off when they flop an ace. 

    What hand is the reg making it 11x to open first in the pot? He went 7.5x over a limper with AQ. You also imply that he is shoving AK pre, and that you are folding if he shoves pre. If you make it $120, he jams for $450 effective (you don't say but I assume he covers?), and all others fold, we now have to call $330 to win $655, so almost exactly 2 to 1. We have over 36% equity against a range of QQ+, AK, so folding is now a mistake even if his range is that tight. We also are just turning our hand into a bluff if we are going to raise big enough that only hands that beat us stay in, and wasting the value of our hand. 

    I also think 3b to $80-90 is good/fine, as it lowers the SPR and has people calling without proper odds, but doesn't make everyone fold everything we beat, and doesn't lock us into calling off if the original raiser rips it. Also, him checking KK 3 times there is almost surely terrible, depending on what the board is. Are you really checking back AA or QQ twice there?

    T5 hand bet bigger on the flop. River changes nothing, she doesn't have T8 there (tight lady isn't calling T8 on 557r ever never). I dunno what card is a spade on the flop, but she isn't calling the flush draw on turn then checking when it hits on river, she would bet. Bet river. 

  12. 3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

    It was pointed out that while a judge cannot grant probation over the jury's jail sentence, as long as the sentence is less than 10 years, the jury can recommend probation and the judge can grant it.

    She would be eligible for parole after serving half the term.

    Not according to what I'm reading. Art. 42A.056 of CCP says no eligibility for jury-ordered probation if convicted of PC 19.02 (murder). 

    GC 508.149 says no parole if convicted of PC 19.02.

    EDIT: Wait that was "mandatory supervision" on GC 508.149, not parole. Yep, 1/2 for parole. So we were each right once, wrong once. 😁

    • Like 2
  13. 5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

    Totally agreed as to the ultimate conclusion.  I think that was rightfully excluded.

    The opinions preceding that, about her state of mind, etc. seem to be a closer call.

    If disallowing opinion testimony about what the defendant's state of mind might be after the defendant already testified as to what her state of mind actually was, is reversible error, then we are back to the CJ system being totally fucked.

    • Like 2
  14. 23 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

    What you're saying is how it should be.

    But let's say Georgia goes 12-0 (with top 10 wins over ND, Florida, and Auburn, plus a win over top 25 aggy), then loses to #1 or 2 Bama close in the CCG.

    Texas beats top 10 ou twice and wins out.  Maybe ISU or Baylor is top 25 when we beat them.

    We're gonna hear the argument that UGA had a much stronger SOS and more quality wins than Texas and they should be in.  Hell, people will be debating if UGA is the second best team in college football, not the fourth.

    I specifically said 11-1 to account for the UGA scenario here. UGA would be 12-1 in that spot, just like Texas or OU, which is a different calculus. I think it would then come down to a full schedule analysis, which can't be done until the games are played.

    Excellent post by Swandered, BTW.

  15. 6 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

    seeing several Dallas defense attorneys on Facebook claiming "reversible error" not to let in Ranger Armstrong's opinion testimony.  they're hoping it's reversible error.

    Seems very very very standard to not let in opinion testimony as to the actual question of fact the jury must answer. Otherwise, when does that end? Let's have the state call 500 experts that say it's their opinion it is unreasonable and the defense call 500 experts that say it is reasonable. 

    • Like 1
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