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horn4life
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This is actually an area where AI will make that stream into what it was meant to be (or sold to be). One thing that was interesting this morning was a guest on Bloomberg Rob Arnott and we as Shorting both sides of a 3x ETF trade. Basically to capture the volatility drag @52-80 (THX). But the idea of shorting both a 3x long and 3x short? Pretty crafty play. He said the annual premium on one short trade was 7000 basis points! And he still made money. Anyhow, I knew nothing about the guy but caught the" 3x short short" and had to rewind and see his take. Anyhow interesting, especially the volatility drag, and his explanation of the mechanics.
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Well there is no bourbon on the shelves in Canada right now, so that is a dead market right now. So does this mean my "investment" in the whiskey cabinet is now degrading due to something other than consumption? Or will my small tequila holdings rise faster than my brown water consumption? No way in hell... I am doing my part!
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Yeah I rode it up, busted down, then just gradually bought in, using covered calls on the bounces to create income. Then on the steeper dips buy in deeper with in the money call options, and way OTM calls in the distant future as throwaways (assuming OTM expiration) in case the calls I sold on a bounce might all exercise on an untimely big bounce. But with the volatility of the stock if it both my calls are exercised I make like 9% in two weeks. Now earnings reaction could make folks dump too, idk? But momentum drives this thing up and down. But basically I am getting back in a price 6% less than the last shares I sold. NOT FREE like you! But I need to add some more upside hedge and I also think their private sector growth is gonna be good. I do worry about penetration in Europe being an issue, with a potential Ukraine pull out? Or Karp might be crazy enough to just give the tech to Ukraine, and become the darling of Europe? I like that last one.
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OK had to get a taste of hedge crack... PLTR May 9th covered calls at $108 and $115, with my cost avg $99.00. So I will probably fuck myself both directions.... 40K dow within sight.
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Anybody here long on PLTR? It's back to where I sold off, and software is one spot where tariffs don't hurt your bottom line. But I came in, bet against and got out both times, as if you get caught on the wrong side of momentum it can move up and down pretty violently. Should have just tossed some money at some $100 calls as an upside hedge when it was bouncing off the low 80's. It should have a resiliency, but now I have a lot more sensitivity to that high valuation. But my concerns are mainly inflation handcuffing the Fed over time. And none of those have hit the market statistically, so a short term covered call on PLTR might Bot PLTR and MP are about where I sold the last of my shares. The PLTR ride got me the opportunity to take some downside risk that played out. MP - was one I should have bought in the mid-teens but my shares drifted in the mid $25s and then my stop hit one day. Both have good long term Trump Administration upside. So I may take a few covered call bites as a hedge back on some shit I can either make some call income on, or end up with a stock at a discount I think will do well longer term.... So... PLTR... I do like that company... Shit... this is day three? of a softer tone on trade?
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Snack food exposure mostly. They overplayed their hand on price increases as well IMHO. The weight loss drugs weigh on the snack end as well. Just more exposure to more headwinds. And I think the profits from the cheap high calorie junk food in small packages is eroding with overall less fat people due to GLP1 drugs. And more potential exposure to tariffs on raw materials for snacks. KO - main exposure is aluminum cost. And I believe (from memory) that their solution there would be to shift to bottles if necessary. So not the investor concern from the fat /tariff perspective for Coke than with Pepsi.
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Unemployment came in steady and downward on continuing. Which is a bit of a surprise to me, as I expected a small creep upward on continuing. Good report. But sort of interesting that there has been no dialog between the USA government and China. A good chunk of my wife's inheritance will be in PepsiCo Stock, so interesting to see a bedrock dividend/growth company in such a rough patch. But the fat drugs, tariff pressures on supply chains, and the bonus of needing to potentially adjust across that chain with dye removal. Earnings miss and guidance cuts due to tariff uncertainty. SWA - No guidance on macroeconomic uncertainty, cutting flights P&G - price hikes likely, cuts outlook due to uncertainty Basically we need a tweet to give the market some guidance today... 😉 And PLTR heading to the moon!
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Man PLTR is closing in on where I sold the last of mine. Should honestly been buying it as a hedge vs my UVIX. The opposite of my initial play. But fuck I love the company very long term, but up $8 to $102 pre- May 5 earnings seems a little rich.
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I guess to me, the question I keep asking myself is... Will past fundamentals like unemployment rising and inflation rising cause a reassessment of high valuations? With so much computer trading I am trying to think if that fundamental aspect of past markets with rising unemployment and inflation is baked into the big boys models? IF so, does that not also indicate that if these fundamentals head in the wrong direction the computer trading models will begin to trim? Or is the modeling so current that the new AI based models have already used more current market actions and reactions to a greater degree in their trading models? I guess I am sort of asking is the AI modeling so good now that it is already discounting past trends? Or are the past trends so fundamental (like bounce backs after 20% losses rebounding sharply) in the programing that the recent data is given no more, or less weight, because of more recent timliness? If that makes sense?
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Bessent is the one smart guy in the administration. I actually agreed with a lot of what he said at the IMF, his calmness in the interview erases that blip downward. The sad thing is ALL of this could have been done in a thoughtful manner. Or course he has not been asked about an actual signed deal. Will be interesting to see if that comes up? Thank God he is around, or the markets would have crashed...
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SO I should not be listening to Bessent at the IMF? Dow down 200 points of peak as he explains the trump policies...
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Will good to know that today the President is not destabilizing the Central Bank! (today?) But that is most likely because the deals are not progressing, and what good is insider trading if you cannot hang onto the gains? I got hammered yesterday and I expect to go deeper red today, as the market is exuberant of the possibility of sanity from the White House. I have a different take, a combination on incremental surrender (good for markets), and the knowledge that negotiations are not a easy as predicted. Sort of like that easy Ukraine war ending negotiation that was promised repeatedly. So no deals this week? That's what a month of chaos without any progress? So NOT doing something really stupid is now what causes a nice rally? And a complete reversal of course on Powell in one mention sends us soaring again today. Today will be a great opportunity to regain losses and bail if you are long. IMHO. As I simply do not think the Trump Administration is going to abandon the policy that has sent the market into the meme zone. Instead you got the news you got yesterday BECAUSE the administration knows the markets are a meme off Trump's words. What if all the reasonableness was simply trying to not have the gains of insider trading wiped out so quickly? Anyone find this assertion completely out of the realm of possibility? Also think about if no announcement and unemployment numbers moving upwards tomorrow? I assume no deal is sight, and that is why we got what we got yesterday.
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I literally grew up on Ron Franklin. He was a Houston TV Sports staple when I was growing up, then he was the voice of the Horns... Sucks he was only 79, covid related pneumonia... Oilers and then the Horns... I need to go back and listen to some old calls.
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So I have enjoyed the planting of the flag on the flaws in the Dow as an index, rather than the basic decline of all indexes. In this, the Dow is not unique, it is falling along with all US stock indexes. Does that mean somehow all the indexes are flawed? All I know is betting against the DOW has me up like 60% on my invested capital this year, So a decent quarter for sure by anyone's standards, and the best quarter I have ever had by far and away. Is it because I was betting against a flawed index? Or because I identified flawed policy and bet against that? I think we all know the answer to that one. Wait until the market starts to see the inflation and unemployment numbers that were absolutely the single most likely scenario of Trump's tariff scheme start creeping in. Last week saw the first blip of folks staying on the rolls longer. This week we should see the first signs on inflation creep. And the solution? Press Powell to come in and save the child from his own flawed policies, before any actual data is put forth. As like ANYONE with a brain knows, tariffs are inflationary! But wait... we have been told tariffs are a miracle cure, and they do not cause inflation! So does Powell act on what history has ALWAYS told us regarding tariffs? Or does he believe the unserious claims of the executive branch implementing policy?
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So fuck... I went full CR. apologies.
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