
horn4life
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I think the correct progression is "Bat in the Chimney" then evolving into the visible "Bear in the Cave." If you have a Bat in the Chimney, or a Bear in the cave you can't quite reach and are a lady. You might hit The Booger Trifecta, as one good sneeze can also get that lady into "Jake's in Jail" territory.
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I would have said last week, Get some Gloves and you can borrow my man card. Today I say this- I heard a term from a prim and proper lady a couple of years back that I had never heard before, "Bat in the Chimney." But in her case, she was referring to a booger that was hanging and blowing back and forth in the nostril. I thought is was pretty funny. Any of ya'll heard that before? I think of it every time that little booger is a problem...
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Listening to Cash Patel testify, reminds me of how a smart young child vehemently lies to their parents when they do something wrong. Listening to Pam Bondi, vowing to attack free speech yesterday was on an equally childish level. We have the most juvenile and incompetent, and blindly loyal cabinet in American History. Hopefully we can survive their incompetence, and non-allegiance to our constitution when they perjured themselves in taking their oaths of office. What's really sad, is the immediate lunge of the GOP to use the murder of an unelected person for political gain. While completely ignoring the slaughter of two elected officials by a right winger. You also have to realize that most Fox News watchers actually believe the political violence is from the left. When the reality is political violence from the right is about 6x, that from the left. The one thing I wish, but you know will NEVER HAPPEN, is a breakdown by party on whom is being threatened the most. It seems the main result of Charlie Cooks death, is a Republicans now feel threatened, when the did not before. Evidence of the $58 million request for security by Trump for the Whitehouse and Supreme Court. In contrast to not even a kind word from Trump on the murdered elected Dems. When our President only cares about the Republican dead? Where the fuck are we at?
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Chubb should have gone down at the one, and we kick a field goal and win. Or we win by kicking an earlier field goal, instead of getting stuffed at the goal line. Or maybe if the fucking offensive line can get a 1 yard push on runs rather than a 1 yard retreat we win. Don't make so many take big yards off the board, or sustain drives like on the last one with penalties we win. OL is simply not getting the job done. As the OL goes, so goes the offensive performance. If you cannot run the ball you cannot win. And if there is a way to run the ball without good OL play, PLEASE let me know what are the plays that you can call over and over to mask that weakness. If there is some OC/play caller that has a solution for weak ass OL play out there, they could instantly demand head coach money and get it. Because my friends there is no play calling that can eliminate the overall disaster of poor line play.
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I almost bought some Klarna pre-market this AM, and it is up 2-3% today. Any thoughts on KLAR? I have not researched the company at all, just like it and Affirm's models and thinking if inflation does what I think it will, both might be good plays. Affirm has had a bigger runup, that's why I was looking at Klarna.
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To be fair, quoting a single individual's statistics to refute an actual study? Would be a running joke in any statistics class in the country. Could you PLEASE give us info on these rentals. It sounds as if you have been holding at least some of the properties a decade? I don't want to argue against you. I am just curious (and personally scared) because I am thinking of writing a check, to buy out my sister to get my Father's home upon his demise. I PM'ed you if you don't want make that info public. Which I understand. What is certain, is that Multiple things can be true. Builders have not seen prices rise by the same percentages as lumber futures trading rises. Have prices risen at Lowes and Home Depot on Lumber? Absolutely! But retail responds more quickly ton inflation for a variety of reasons, than price increases for wholesale volume buying through established B2B supply chains. Housing and rent has increased dramatically. Again for a variety of reasons. IMHO mainly because corporate and private equity has entered the market in a way we have only seen previously after steep market retreats. I was told by an agent in the Belton area that over 30% of the houses sold in Bell county in 2024, we not to individuals, but to corporate investors. Please correct me if I am wrong here, but presently the percentage of non-homestead home purchases is as high as we have ever seen in a "normal" market? You can lose money on rent houses or make money on rent houses. Depends on what you paid for the property and how much rent you can get. If you bought a rent property in the Spring of 2023? You are likely not covering that nut. Just like you couldn't when you bought the home. It's also true that for many people turning a "profit" on rentals never comes. Unless you exclude the generous, depreciation income deduction, from your bottom line. I for instance would never buy a turn key investment property. The longer term increase in equity in the remodel and higher rent because of the remodel. But a lot of folks buy retail, rent retail, and thus have a lot thinner margin to make a profit. I will say I found @Captainant link interesting. Looking specifically constant dollars, versus current dollars. Since 2020 in Texas $1091 in 2020, $1503 in 2025 in current dollars. In contrast in constant dollars $1091 in 2020, vs $1183 in 2025. I have no idea about the veracity of the site. But I would find it extremely difficult to even remotely suggest that wages have kept pace with rising rents. So since this is the Market rather than RE thread, which of you guys are placing big stock bets on builders this week? How are you investing in stocks in relation to the RE market? I searched for "top real estate stocks", and got a yahoo link that shows and compares the RE stocks to the S&P. Glad I chimed in on this. As I am considering taking all of my inheritance in a future rental property, than in cash and stock. This link makes me wonder if the cash might be a better option? Anyhow interesting to look at the sectors that are kicking ass and which are not. I was mainly looking the 6 month (current) and 5 year (historic) numbers. Interesting stuff. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/real-estate/
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Depends on how you are positioned in the market. I think a correction will come eventually because inflation is rising. I figure we will be at 3.5% inflation heading into Christmas. Whether that does anything to the market who knows.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Only if the liquid portion of the estate do not exceed the value of the house. My Dad's burn rate at independent living isn't much right now. But if he needed nursing care, that could cause the erosion of the cash position of the estate. My original idea was to rent the house to prevent erosion of the estate in a worst case scenario. It may be that selling the place and me just getting a bigger pop is the way to go. Especially if rates are a bit lower in the Spring. Like I told my dad the other day. "If you try hard to prove yourself wrong and can't, you might actually have a good idea." My MIL is actively dying right now, and I have covid. I have been thinking more about the commitment to pull this off, and the possibility he might be actively dying during the process. I want to be able to be there for him at the end, and I need to allocate that some additional weight on the negative side of the ledger for that in the decision making. I also need to think about the things I hate now, higher property taxes and never ending rises home insurance. I fI inherit ,and then sell I take the whole hit on the closing costs for example. Lots of little details to think about in trying to evaluate this idea. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Spoke to my Dad about this and as I explained to him, first and foremost the math has to work, and I need to do some more research. Depending on when my Dad passes there is a decent possibility that he will have enough liquid assets to where I would on the hook for under $100K. The other thing I pointed out yesterday was that by not selling the house the Estate would not incur those closing cost expenses. royiv - The will will be the main thing. Does the other side of the family, or the estate, have enough funds to make you whole? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
That's what I was thinking but this is where I probably need to get an RE/Estate attorney involved. As how do you buy someone out of something they don't yet own? If my Dad was dead it would be easy to come up with a number (well maybe with my sis). I was also thinking this morning about what might be a way to structure some sort of lease with my Dad to get the experiment started ifure my rental market research pans out. Maybe a rolling 18 month lease until his death. Just to protect my to recoup my furnishing cost investment? Probably the easiest is to have my Dad cap her value in the home in his will? Or predetermine my back end cost today, and put that hard cost into Dad's will. If he died right now, I think there is almost enough on the investment/cash side of the coin that I could not be out much of my money to close the loop. Seems like best option may be to have a rewriting of the will. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
The worst surly answer ever... like this is a pay for play advice playground... 😉 with the exception of WuLaw and Phil..... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Thanks for the input. There are so many different angles to look at Fed policy priorities and the direction of interest rates and unemployment that it's a debate that has no perfect answer. Thus, it's interesting to debate. As different experiences and points of view are probably the same around the Fed table when everyone is discussing what they see as the most important from a weighting perspective. And as we have seen the Fed can move and the market doesn't. but I dont think that's the case in this instance I also think there are folks on both sides of the buy perhaps willing to bend a bit more to try and close out a deal in 2025? Or not... ------ Different subject - Regarding what I "think" I know. Background - Dad has house on lake that will fall to my Sister and myself. We were going to get it remodeled and on the market this Spring but a combination of things got progress pushed back and now I am suggesting we not put it on the market this year, but wait until Spring and hope for an even better market with better price. I have toyed with the idea of potentially buying my sister out of her half of the house as a longer term investment. My sister has no interest in the place, beyond someone putting a check in her had without any effort required. I am the person basically being the GC on a complete remodel and with my Dad being 93 he honestly might not make it until Spring (but doing well now!!!) I am hoping to value might jump up from $450K now to a list of $675K according to the realtor and let's say a close of $650K less fees. But that's only after I put everything together! I was trying to figure out a way to get that stepped up value of $675K without buying my sister out at that higher stepped up price when inherited.So how do I buy out my sister's 45% at current value of $475K and end up with an inherited stepped up value of $675K? Any ideas? I just want to buy her without her getting half the value of my efforts to increase the value of the house next Spring should my father pass in the interim. It's a real oddball question I know. I thought about simply giving my Dad cash and having him change his will, but I do NOT want to do anything shady as the executor. Nor do I want to try and screw my sister. Just trying to find a way to hang onto the place and minimize my cost to do so. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Warning - Potentially boring Fed conversation debate post - Actual industry questions at the end that I am really curious about. So what do you guys think about the bump up in inflation in today's reports as the other side of the Fed's dual mandate coin? It seems as if a quarter point rate cut is built into most all the market predictions. But I would love to be a fly on the wall hearing everyone's point of view. Is this inflation transitory? Or perhaps more accurately what weight is 3% inflation going forward, with the potential to rise as tariffs trickle through the economy? The flip side of the mandate coin is job creation. And while job creation sucks, unemployment is is a fairly comfortable place overall. If you are just looking historically. How bad do individual fed members think the momentum is? Is it markedly higher than inflation? Right now it seems that is where the sentiment is, but I would love to know the high and low predictions of individual members of the Fed say 3 and 6 months and a year out right now. (on both inflation and jobs) The other odd ball thing that has been added to the rate cut debate is the affect of a potentially shrinking workforce, in relation to job creation and in turn unemployment numbers. And what weight members give that (if any) in their forward looks? Right now we are in almost exactly the spot I predicted a year ago. I said it would be a miracle to see the MMI below 6.25%. Simply because of what policy implementation of tariffs would entail creation of a lot of conflicting data, making it hard for the Fed to have moved comfortably downward through the Spring and Summer as many hoped for. Anyhow I just like the debate. Which side of the dual mandate coin will the data push the Fed the next 6 months? Most likely move is a quarter point, with the conflicting data. Not a jumbo half. But fuck what do I know. I sort of fear we get the quarter, and then inflation starts to make it's move, stalling/slowing that next quarter point. -------------------- The good news for the RE market IMHO? Is that folks have seen those rates they just had to wait a few more months for, within sight. So there may be some brisker off season activity than the norm. Basically off the realization that the just beyond the horizon downward moves in rates back to covid/post covid levels are not a guarantee. Not to say rates may not indeed continue to drift downward! Just to say that emotionally folks who have been waiting, probably are feeling pretty good about where rates are right now. OR do you still think that the mindset of the folks that have been holding off is that waiting for lower is still the prevailing mindset? One last question - Do you think that lower rates and longer DOM heading into Fall will also create some price capitulation to help buyers along with lower rates? In other words sort of create a Fall sales graph volume anomaly, to the usual decline heading toward Spring? -
Well, if I step back and look at the big picture, there is one thing I love about Manning! He actually scores enough points leading the offense, to allow the backups to come in and get some reps. Last year under Ewers, we would manage to keep games much closer than they should have been, and therefore, Manning got a LOT fewer live reps last season, than most folks (Me) expected. Manning got the majority of his snaps last year because Ewers was injured, rather than mop up duty. My hope is that this season we can indeed blow out the folks we are supposed to blow out. Simply so that whoever our backup QB is going to be when called upon gets some live game reps. To me, getting whoever the back QB reps with live game pressures is always going to be a priority for me. Simply as it's difficult for any QB to survive a complete college season. and it's a lot better to get reps when a little is on the line than everything on the line. You see, I still remember in the NC game when Garrett Gilbert was throwing darts when Colt McCoy went down that were simply much hotter delivery than our receivers were accustomed to. And they were not caught. Was this because Gilbert was too excited? Making the balls hot? Or was that just how hot his throws were normally? Who the fuck knows? We don't know because we did not get our backup QB enough reps in live games. Getting your backup QB live reps, if you want your team to TRULY compete for the top honors, you need a backup QB that has taken live reps in real games with the first team receivers. IMHO. Anyhow, Manning is on a good trajectory, and maybe, just maybe, we can do our jobs well enough this year to get those very valuable reps to whoever might be forced to step in if Manning goes down. When we look at what it takes to develop a championship level team, usually what you are looking for a quality two deep, where you do not have much fall off, moving to the second man up. The one spot that seems to often be overlooked it that backup QB. Getting that backup early (and often) live experience, and be the difference between winning and losing later in the season. My prayer is Manning continues to put up enough points to get out backup QB's some quality reps. That's insurance to me!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Ok.. I paused a sec, and thought agents are liquid... then reread and laughed heartily! Thanks for that, It's been a tough week at my house.
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