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horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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This is actually an area where AI will make that stream into what it was meant to be (or sold to be). One thing that was interesting this morning was a guest on Bloomberg Rob Arnott and we as Shorting both sides of a 3x ETF trade. Basically to capture the volatility drag @52-80 (THX). But the idea of shorting both a 3x long and 3x short? Pretty crafty play. He said the annual premium on one short trade was 7000 basis points! And he still made money. Anyhow, I knew nothing about the guy but caught the" 3x short short" and had to rewind and see his take. Anyhow interesting, especially the volatility drag, and his explanation of the mechanics.
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Well there is no bourbon on the shelves in Canada right now, so that is a dead market right now. So does this mean my "investment" in the whiskey cabinet is now degrading due to something other than consumption? Or will my small tequila holdings rise faster than my brown water consumption? No way in hell... I am doing my part!
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Yeah I rode it up, busted down, then just gradually bought in, using covered calls on the bounces to create income. Then on the steeper dips buy in deeper with in the money call options, and way OTM calls in the distant future as throwaways (assuming OTM expiration) in case the calls I sold on a bounce might all exercise on an untimely big bounce. But with the volatility of the stock if it both my calls are exercised I make like 9% in two weeks. Now earnings reaction could make folks dump too, idk? But momentum drives this thing up and down. But basically I am getting back in a price 6% less than the last shares I sold. NOT FREE like you! But I need to add some more upside hedge and I also think their private sector growth is gonna be good. I do worry about penetration in Europe being an issue, with a potential Ukraine pull out? Or Karp might be crazy enough to just give the tech to Ukraine, and become the darling of Europe? I like that last one.
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OK had to get a taste of hedge crack... PLTR May 9th covered calls at $108 and $115, with my cost avg $99.00. So I will probably fuck myself both directions.... 40K dow within sight.
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Anybody here long on PLTR? It's back to where I sold off, and software is one spot where tariffs don't hurt your bottom line. But I came in, bet against and got out both times, as if you get caught on the wrong side of momentum it can move up and down pretty violently. Should have just tossed some money at some $100 calls as an upside hedge when it was bouncing off the low 80's. It should have a resiliency, but now I have a lot more sensitivity to that high valuation. But my concerns are mainly inflation handcuffing the Fed over time. And none of those have hit the market statistically, so a short term covered call on PLTR might Bot PLTR and MP are about where I sold the last of my shares. The PLTR ride got me the opportunity to take some downside risk that played out. MP - was one I should have bought in the mid-teens but my shares drifted in the mid $25s and then my stop hit one day. Both have good long term Trump Administration upside. So I may take a few covered call bites as a hedge back on some shit I can either make some call income on, or end up with a stock at a discount I think will do well longer term.... So... PLTR... I do like that company... Shit... this is day three? of a softer tone on trade?
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Snack food exposure mostly. They overplayed their hand on price increases as well IMHO. The weight loss drugs weigh on the snack end as well. Just more exposure to more headwinds. And I think the profits from the cheap high calorie junk food in small packages is eroding with overall less fat people due to GLP1 drugs. And more potential exposure to tariffs on raw materials for snacks. KO - main exposure is aluminum cost. And I believe (from memory) that their solution there would be to shift to bottles if necessary. So not the investor concern from the fat /tariff perspective for Coke than with Pepsi.
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Unemployment came in steady and downward on continuing. Which is a bit of a surprise to me, as I expected a small creep upward on continuing. Good report. But sort of interesting that there has been no dialog between the USA government and China. A good chunk of my wife's inheritance will be in PepsiCo Stock, so interesting to see a bedrock dividend/growth company in such a rough patch. But the fat drugs, tariff pressures on supply chains, and the bonus of needing to potentially adjust across that chain with dye removal. Earnings miss and guidance cuts due to tariff uncertainty. SWA - No guidance on macroeconomic uncertainty, cutting flights P&G - price hikes likely, cuts outlook due to uncertainty Basically we need a tweet to give the market some guidance today... 😉 And PLTR heading to the moon!
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Man PLTR is closing in on where I sold the last of mine. Should honestly been buying it as a hedge vs my UVIX. The opposite of my initial play. But fuck I love the company very long term, but up $8 to $102 pre- May 5 earnings seems a little rich.
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I guess to me, the question I keep asking myself is... Will past fundamentals like unemployment rising and inflation rising cause a reassessment of high valuations? With so much computer trading I am trying to think if that fundamental aspect of past markets with rising unemployment and inflation is baked into the big boys models? IF so, does that not also indicate that if these fundamentals head in the wrong direction the computer trading models will begin to trim? Or is the modeling so current that the new AI based models have already used more current market actions and reactions to a greater degree in their trading models? I guess I am sort of asking is the AI modeling so good now that it is already discounting past trends? Or are the past trends so fundamental (like bounce backs after 20% losses rebounding sharply) in the programing that the recent data is given no more, or less weight, because of more recent timliness? If that makes sense?
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Bessent is the one smart guy in the administration. I actually agreed with a lot of what he said at the IMF, his calmness in the interview erases that blip downward. The sad thing is ALL of this could have been done in a thoughtful manner. Or course he has not been asked about an actual signed deal. Will be interesting to see if that comes up? Thank God he is around, or the markets would have crashed...
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SO I should not be listening to Bessent at the IMF? Dow down 200 points of peak as he explains the trump policies...
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Will good to know that today the President is not destabilizing the Central Bank! (today?) But that is most likely because the deals are not progressing, and what good is insider trading if you cannot hang onto the gains? I got hammered yesterday and I expect to go deeper red today, as the market is exuberant of the possibility of sanity from the White House. I have a different take, a combination on incremental surrender (good for markets), and the knowledge that negotiations are not a easy as predicted. Sort of like that easy Ukraine war ending negotiation that was promised repeatedly. So no deals this week? That's what a month of chaos without any progress? So NOT doing something really stupid is now what causes a nice rally? And a complete reversal of course on Powell in one mention sends us soaring again today. Today will be a great opportunity to regain losses and bail if you are long. IMHO. As I simply do not think the Trump Administration is going to abandon the policy that has sent the market into the meme zone. Instead you got the news you got yesterday BECAUSE the administration knows the markets are a meme off Trump's words. What if all the reasonableness was simply trying to not have the gains of insider trading wiped out so quickly? Anyone find this assertion completely out of the realm of possibility? Also think about if no announcement and unemployment numbers moving upwards tomorrow? I assume no deal is sight, and that is why we got what we got yesterday.
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I literally grew up on Ron Franklin. He was a Houston TV Sports staple when I was growing up, then he was the voice of the Horns... Sucks he was only 79, covid related pneumonia... Oilers and then the Horns... I need to go back and listen to some old calls.
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So I have enjoyed the planting of the flag on the flaws in the Dow as an index, rather than the basic decline of all indexes. In this, the Dow is not unique, it is falling along with all US stock indexes. Does that mean somehow all the indexes are flawed? All I know is betting against the DOW has me up like 60% on my invested capital this year, So a decent quarter for sure by anyone's standards, and the best quarter I have ever had by far and away. Is it because I was betting against a flawed index? Or because I identified flawed policy and bet against that? I think we all know the answer to that one. Wait until the market starts to see the inflation and unemployment numbers that were absolutely the single most likely scenario of Trump's tariff scheme start creeping in. Last week saw the first blip of folks staying on the rolls longer. This week we should see the first signs on inflation creep. And the solution? Press Powell to come in and save the child from his own flawed policies, before any actual data is put forth. As like ANYONE with a brain knows, tariffs are inflationary! But wait... we have been told tariffs are a miracle cure, and they do not cause inflation! So does Powell act on what history has ALWAYS told us regarding tariffs? Or does he believe the unserious claims of the executive branch implementing policy?
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So fuck... I went full CR. apologies.
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I was thinking that there was a Star Trek that reminded me of our current times. Look up "the Squire of Gothos." If you are an old like me and still remember shit. Hilarious that Liberace is playing today's Trump role.
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I honestly do not think Trump understands why his whiny, (fix it Daddy,) attacks on Powell are so concerning to the markets. Stock AND Bonds!!!!! This is where you wish there were more strong smart people around him. But like I said am betting against a bad CEO, surrounded by uniquely unqualified management nearly universally across the board. Nothing like taking a little breathing room from a 90 day tariff reprieve... and then upping the ante with a destruction of the stability of the US Central Bank. I hope like fuck I am wrong, and I get burned bad on my short bet. But I am very, very afraid, that we are about the go back in time financially about 3 years in two trading days in the not too distant future. Again hope I am fucking wrong.
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I forget who the analyst who was on Bloomberg pre-market. She was the derivative analyst for somebody, but she was talking about 5 levels of market fear (that was somebody else's thesis) Where we are at level two, and that the movement to level three was a usually violently downward. As I was driving away this morning made me wish I had taped her, as she had some other forward looking indicators she was watching, that I wanted to write down... She had a good analogy about the markets operating at a fixed level of a 30+ VIX for an extended period of time. It's sort of like an elevated heart rate. Over time it simply is not good for the patient due to the constant additional stress. Anyhow need to try and search her down later. I think there is indeed too much optimism, and some of it is political in nature, which is natural. And yes Fox News no longer really does news. Hell watch their "business" channel and try to glean any useful information? So for me, as a person betting against the market, networks specifically trying not to make their viewers informed regarding market risks (besides the gold commercials I used to laugh at) is good for me. When it is the most popular News Channel in the country? That's good for me too. As when reality does hit, it's going to be violent. As the wake up call to reality is going to be very, very rude. That's why I honestly pay attention to FOX's Sunday coverage. When the hard questions start getting asked there, it's time for me to move out of being short in all likelihood. But you think of the drop it took to start sort of asking moderately tough questions... Like I said I think a good degree of the current optimism is politically based, and Fox is sort of like a leading indicator, when tough questions come into play... for Republican guests...
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SO interesting day today. Looks like there is actually some degree of decoupling from Crypto and the Dow. Up until today most of the time Bitcoin has been a leading indicator for the DOW (argue of the intricacies the DOW all you want). So to me that is a bit interesting... As to the why (if there is a decoupling beyond today)? Is crypto actually becoming what it was sold as, an alternative to traditional stocks and banking? Or is this a blip, an anomaly? Anyhow what I am interested in is what DIRECTION is the DOW headed? I see it as drifting sideways or slowly downward with another steep sell off in the future as the hope wanes. Right now I think the market is operating in a place of caution, and cautious optimism. As I so not believe that realistic expectations regarding inflation and tariffs is barely baked into the market at this point. Instead all focus is on trying to rid the Trump Economy of the one steady hand at the tiller, Fed Chair Powell. Rather than focus on the inflation that is coming, Powell is supposed to be the cure to bad Trump Economic policy. We are just getting into the beginnings of bad fiscal policy, as the great big beautiful deficit busting bill winds it way though. I still regret not buying those $560 puts on Tesla... but I would have already cashed out. It will be interesting to see the sorts of guidance we get as earnings begin rolling in this week. What I am curious about is PLTR earnings next week. I expect another revenue beat, but that valuation... But does the DOW close up or down from weeks close at this week's end?
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Right now I think you honestly have sort of the opposite effect going on right now. Youo have shit ton of folks that really, really want to believe, that the roaring economy they predicted a few months ago will come to fruition. It might. All the trade deals might get done, interest rates will fall, and there could be no inflation from tariffs, and the near universal scrub off of value to 401K's will be quickly forgotten. This is an absolute possibility. To be honest though I am a contrarian. I tend to look for the worst case scenario, try to account for that, then go forward. I do not think that the stock market has fully accounted for how the tariffs are going to affect a multitude of areas. And a lot of the effects will be more gradual, but slow and steady. I also think there is some simple psychology involved, in that most folks investing today have not see serious downturns in the economy. Most haven't seen the collapse of the energy sector and the destruction of Houston, now the Home market collapse with mass foreclosures and destruction across the board of property values. So those thoughts are completely alien to a lot of investors (people in general.) Anyhow I think we still have an overly optimistic investor class right now. Hell I want to believe too! I like being able to bet on companies I feel will profit going foward, and increase their profits and thus stock price. I see opportunities to trade a lot right now, but I am having a tougher time finding stocks to truly invest in? MP is sort of a good example for me. A company I think/thought should benefit from a more insular policy regarding rare minerals. But did it went up a hair down a hair and then drifted downward. Peter Thiel joins the board, stock gets a nice bounce. A bounce big enough to get the stock price back to where I originally bought in, before my stop losses bounced it. But off the bounce the stock pulled back and it would still be a loser for me. But it SHOULD be a good stock in the Trump Economy. But it too is directionless because of unpredictability, at least short term. Anyhow my views are pretty clear now, I simply do not think we have seen the worst of things. I could VERY EASILY be wrong. Optimism could overrun me. BUT... I see gradual inflation, gradual rise in unemployment rolls, and a Fed handcuffed by unpredictable government policy. I mean think about it. We came about 10 hours from the market going free fall, before Trumps reversed course. Bessent was thrilled that the markets still were operational!?!?! But we had to get that close for reality to get through? That is sort of scary to me. Anyhow I really, really want to go long. I just do not think we have seen the bottom yet. And hell, if I am wrong, I only lose house money at this point. But over the 90 day stoppage, the effects of tariff disruption are going to be more and more apparent. And then the word "transitory" will be the word drinking game that will get you faced out of your mind.
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So you can't make as many deals, your client can't make as many deals. Wonder if that will come into play in the coming months profits? 😉 Saw the first little stickiness of unemployment. And was strong consumer spending a plus on forward momentum? Or a rush to push future planned consumption forward in time to avoid tariffs? I know two friends who did just that on cars they were contemplating, but pulled trigger for fear of price increases. On the long side of the coin, a deal would spike the markets. Hell the content of the deal would not matter at all, just a deal. Some sort of forward movement indicating a light at the end of the tunnel, regarding stable predictability. So if I am the WH, I give Japan a great deal saying there deal was ONLY because they were first in. When the reality might well be... we gotta get a deal... any deal. Doesn't matter how you get to point B, the market wil love it. As the details are looked at, against the premises initially stated and making these tariffs a national emergency? I doubt the math is reflective of that, which will take a lot longer for the market to digest. Anyhow interesting times of unpredictability we live in.
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So, do you agree or disagree with this statement. CEO's will be less pessimistic and less critical of the governments role with tariffs in their forward looking guidance. Simply as I think they know that, if they say something overly honest (thus critical) they could face swift retribution from the White House, in a manner we have not seen before. True? or False? If this is true, then a more flowery picture of the economy going forward will be repeated again and again. Instead of giving brutally honest forward looking guidance. I realize there is always some fairy dust sprinkled in. But I think we are about to see some of the least honest forward looking guidance we have ever heard ...
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HaHa for a second I thought it was Port A... But no marina angle like that, I am aware of. Did catch my first trout in the surf in 18 months after sacrificing a year of my life taking care of my folks. And walked into a place today, called Grander Distributing in Georgetown. Because I liked their Marlin logo, had a mount of "the grander" (1000 lb) monster hanging in the lobby. I should have take a picture of that bad boy. Made my excitement over a 19-3/4 trout and it's little head shake, sort of
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If I did not need to tow this is where I would be looking. BUT --- I am also NEVER going to buy the first year of a new transmission or engine. Engineers are brilliant. But my I went for 6 speed tranny in my 2020 Silverado and my BIL got the new 10 speed... thank GOD he bought an extended warranty. $14K replacement... at 57K if my memory is correct. I just don't trust shit until it's in the field a year or two. Early Ford Turbo F-150 comes to mind as well on early issues. But after the shake out, a good design. IMHO
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Meant to post earlier, but my thesis is still the same. When I ask, How many deals by the weekend? I ask it because we retreated, and kicked the can down the road for 90 days. My assertion is the ask is too big, and the retreat too damn quick to get any deals quickly, unless its from partners so weak is will be meaningless. I think this is going to now be a slow descent. Slow brutal and gradual. I will say I forgot PLTR's earning were today. Glad I dumped my puts on Friday, that would have been very expensive. I took a small bath the last few days. but big swings I am getting used to. It's staying the course longer term. There is definitely some "Vegas Mentality" where you are playing on 'house money" and your risk aversion is much less. So numbers that would have freaked me 2 months ago, are simply swings of a meme administration. We honestly have not see ANY of the bad result of this stupidity, But it is coming. the drag on earnings and forward guidance are coming. And why would China negotiate with us? We are like an Army in disarray, just sit back and let the strategic mistakes of your opponent play out. If I was Xi that's what I would do. You know what is sad. I want so bad to be long! But you guys let me know, when the destruction of US household wealth, is worth the shock and awe plan to get folks to the table? Add listen to what the Administration tells you is happening, versus what is actually happening. I think to most folks outside the US, it appears we honestly do not know what to do smartly to get to the place we want on trade or tariffs. Hope I am wrong for all of you that are long. But right now... I only see confusion, and lack of clarity, for like... months...?
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