
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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So since we no longer have the BLS producing any statistics, how does the Fed decide if jobs are or or not a real issue? Do you just sub ADP for BLS data? Or wait for BLS data for decision making on rate cutes? I would assume they would substitute the ADP data, but does that make the Fed more cautious in cutting due to lack of data in their minds? How do you think the Fed adjusts to the lack of BLS data? Or do you think it's not necessary? I honestly do not know the answer, that's why I am asking.
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Yesterday when the hook went in my index finder and tore out, I thought of this thread. And whats funny is it seems like most of my hook injuries have been on a little damn hardhead. Same on this day. But hell since it was my index finder it took forever to stop the bleeding. I decided that it impossible to fish without getting cut up somehow. On the bright side I pulled out another limit of redfish at the Fish Pass Jetty. And I during the hang on the beach pre-OU I managed to pick up a nice trout in the surf on the last rod I was about to reel. Surf fishing seemed pretty tough, as I didn't see many bent poles. It was nice to get an applause from the folks next to us when I pulled out the trout. Port A fishing report is Reds good on the rocks anywhere. The irony is tides were so high that I was unable to rustle up any mullet. So I have the survivor shimp from my pint the day before. Two pinch weights and free lining the shrimp was fire on the outgoing tide. Being in the right spot helped a ton as I was the one guy catching. Then gave up my spot tot he kids next to me and they started catching. Showed them what I was doing and they switched up with mullet and started reeling them in as well. What I will target next week is Flounder! Saw a guy pull out a huge 24ish inch flounder on mullet, and another smaller on a purple and white paddle tail the guy was jigging into the rocks. So the flounder run has started!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Thanks- The national program is the one the vast majority use right, as it's cheaper? But it's limited in coverage to $250? So if you have a more valuable home you need to go private? Or do folks do the national program for the first $250K, and then get some cheaper supplemental private policy for value beyond $250K? Or is the private insurance in line when you get the higher value coverage? -
Yeah, but look at it this way. By buying today, you "save" the 40% increase over the next 6 months...
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i guess they just decided where to shear the skin back to, in order to stop the spread. Looks pretty gnarly. And yes there is almost always some other immunity issue that makes older people more susceptible. Wonder if they are going to try and use pig bladder to help regrow that skin?
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How to burn up 4 hours with a dog in Brenham?
horn4life replied to horn4life's topic in Food and Travel
I was close to doing this as my daughter and SIL live in Katy. But how may hours do I want to drive in a day? Best Stop is great for frozen bring it with you I know crazy menu right? "Sponsored by the Coronary Surgeons Association..." Right now it's number one on the list. I thought about buying a sampling off the a la carte menu, just to try a bunch of stuff. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
First - thanks for the advice on perhaps taking my Dad's Lakehouse as my portion of the inheritance. In the end I think if we can get close to the number we want in the Spring, that is the way to go. I can always borrow my future portion of the proceeds to create a rental property closer to home if that's what we decide. However, after spending a long weekend at the coast, moving the estate more to cash via a sale looks pretty attractive. Plus my Dad is willing to strike a deal for me to borrow from the house sale proceeds, to invest in something closer to home now. The idea of having a rental property in Austin that we designed in advance to downsize to in the future, is probably a wiser investment. We also might look at buying into a coastal rental unit, after the next big storm as an investment. after this long weekend and looking forward, the idea of a lock and leave townhome to travel a few years from now is pretty appealing. Or a coastal rental that we could vacation to in the off season is pretty appealing as well to diversify our retirement portfolio. Again thanks for all the input on my thought process. Second - Is it true that because of the budget shutdown that you cannot currently secure flood insurance for coastal property sales? I thought I heard that on the news in Corpus Christi last week. And wondered if this was true? -
How to burn up 4 hours with a dog in Brenham?
horn4life replied to horn4life's topic in Food and Travel
OK dickheads. I KNEW it was a risk to ask. But damn it a little search thinking about a meet in Katy, made me come across this place. Looks like the legit country store with a cajun flair, and closed Monday and tuesday to give their staff a life. I like little places that do that for their staff( often family). But damn- this place will kill you... or perhaps me... but lots of temptation to be sure. Repkas of Northern Brookshire PS- just saw in the drink section, "Setups - $3.50..." I may be in love... -
Well if you are at the beach you want fat tire. And do you want to use the bike for your personal fitness, or just as transportation? Most of the legacy MFG are really fitness based, with electrical assist. What I would look for at the beach is how well sealed and water proof (resistant) the set up is. I wanted to buy one to take the Port A jetty boat to the North Jetty and ride north to Cedar Bayou. But that's a trip not to be made alone... If you are mainly riding on the street then maybe you could go with a skinnier tire? But I would go fat. The other thing to consider is whether or not the bike has a torque sensor. Which links the bikes performance to your effort on the pedals. All the bikes that are more fitness based use the torque sensor technology. There are three types of classes- Type 1 -you have to pedal, and max speed of 20mph. Type 2 - adds throttle option, instead of pedal only, up to 20 mph. Type 3 are higher speeds up to 28 mph and more like a scooter. The one thing I considered a lot was getting a bike with both front and rear wheel drive. As in sand and off road tougher conditions, the "2wd" allows both push and pull. Since I was going to use it for remote location fishing the second motor was something I thought I would need. What sort of frame? Do you want a step through, or a step over? If you every want to be lugging stuff on the back rack then a step through might be preferable. Finally I would look at the potential theft deterrent/ tracking options eight included or after market. I was going to pay for insurance as I thought they would be an easy steal to toss two grand into a truck and haul ass. I was looking at this brand, before I started to seriously consider all wheel drive. Aventon Adventure E bike link. $1500-$2K This guy fished the corpus /port a area and his bike is 2WD and is about $4K, but interesting to see him on off road on this trip
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Worst travel question ever I know! But if I can find a way to occupy myself for a few hours in Brenham while my wife visits a facility, I can save her a two hour drive back to Austin, and I get a jump start on heading to Port A. The dog is a complicating factor. Any thoughts?
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Explain to me how you don't end up with some cuts on your hands after fishing a couple days? I need to put some wipes in the truck. Prayers for your friend.
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Set the rig up in Port A for couple weeks. Honestly after two years of complete neglect... I feld pretty good about things. I replaced the 30 amp plug and that worked well. Need to put a little money into her. Mainly a roof, see above. Limb fell on my skylight over shower and had super heave rainstorm in Port A this weekend, with was a great test for my no maintenance for 2 years roof. A little leak in the bath skylight, but it had a crack in it. However I am assuming seal failure, and will take it apart to see if the leak has damaged the plywood. Oh yeah, seems as if my city water intake is leaking. So replace that when I return. But overall super happy to be back out camping, and just hanging on the beach, enjoying being alive. I will say that the new pavillion at IB MaGee is a nice park perk. A three story observation deck between the jetty and the pier, is a nice Sunset beverage destination. Probably even better dawn. But I will never know, as I should be fishing! Funny how this was a hot covid era thread, and now not so much.
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oops... imagine typing a post in Port A... and not hitting send.. like the old ad said, "priceless! Good tip on Brewster Street, looks like it's in the old Baot House, which was never a fav of mine. But Brewster Street has a good corpus rep and maybe that might do well there. I keep wondering if the fishing vibe of Port A will rub off if they develop up Lake Padre? Actually very happily went with my dark horse game watching choice, Red's Porch. Actually had a warmed smoked fish dip with some parm slices on top that I was skeptical about, but was damn good. I was skeptical of the warm fish dip, but with some fresh bread, it pretty good. Mainly a non=Stingray's vibe, with the breeze blowing, it made our sucking, not as bad. Honestly I have a feeling I will be sitting there for OU. Pain feels better in the breeze with Palms swaying. Had La Playa cook the catch, and that was a perfect close on Saturday evening. Think I might next time I might opt for the table side guac versus the crab/avocado addition to the fish. Only because you get whatever their fish sauce fo the day is with your fish. We had their Bayou sauce, and with the crawfish in that, we didn't really need the additional richness of the crab. Delicious though it was! Saw that Nick Parr and the Selfless Lovers were playing the Pig party, good band, I think the folks will like. Hoping for low wind, good tides, and attitudinal reset in over the next two weeks or so.
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So caught my limit of reds yesterday afternoon so a happy man! Fish pass Jetty was golden for abo autn hour and a half. Was trying to figure out where to watch the game in Port A today. We always seem to end up at Stingrays and the food just so average it bums me out. Anyplace else worth a damn to watch the game today? Thought about driving down towards North Padre Island, as there is a place Hard Knocks that's a sports bar there, but only because I wanted to go to Roy's and get some fishing stuff. Any suggestions? PS - have a case of Karbach Hopadillo I want to give to somebody in Port A either this weekend or next. preferably a Longhorn! We will be as some bar today watching, and we will be at Pig Party next weekend if any of you guys like that beer.
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Well fishing has been tough in Port A the last couple days. Tons of mullet in the second gut at the beach first day, then where did they go? But overall got lucky as hell, after getting blanked at the Jetty (saw a couple flounder pulled in). Decided to go where I wanted to originally the fish pass jetty, just to check out driving conditions for the next day. Well I made it out and was sitting in the car contemplating whether to gear up again. And I noticed it looked like some activity on the inside.. then a guy comes scurrying over the rocks with a red in each hand. So I grab my gear and I start scrambling. A big school of reads had apparently trapped a big school of bait between the the little nubs of the fish pass. And they were hitting damn near everything. I saw them caught on shrimp, rattle trap, soon, swim bait, cut mullet, and in my case a big ass 3/4 oz jig head and an a muleet with the tail cut off. Took me about 30 seconds to hook up along with everyone else. I along with 8 or 10 other people at least caught limits. From parking my car to walking back with a stringer was just over an hour. The first pic is of my third cast of the first day, and it was about the most exciting thing I caught then. Little skippy trying to eat a NRLB bait half his size! Reds in the cooler isn't a great pic, but it made me grin like a mofo! 26,27 and 28 inch reds in 30 minutes of fishing was just what the doctor ordered! Hookem! and tight lines.
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Hopefully the Port A fish Gods will give me something to post in the coming days. Nothing like hearing that line sing! I think that my time standing on the edge of the surf, watching the first glow of dawn, eventually shoot out that first ray of sun, is probably as close to God as I will ever get on earth. It's just completely uplifting, with the awe and beauty of what each day can offer us. It's a great reminder to try to live in the moment and find things to appreciate each and every day. But those dawns... they are special...
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Well about to drag my trailer down for a few weeks of fun in the sun. We need it. Haven't left the rv down there since October 2023, and used it zero. Buried both our mothers in that span and nursed my Dad back to life in that time frame. Wife's mom passed last week and we will bounce back for the funeral. But damn. It's gong to be good just to chill out on the beach, and wet a line. So I am gonna head down Wednesday and get the trailer set up for the month. We had a blast in '21, '22 and '23 just coming down for the month of October depending on the tides, and wind. Pig party on OU weekend at Shorty's, Smoked tuna dip a Virginia's, and a steady diet of La Playa is heading my way! The wife and I need to get back to some us time. And nothing like the weekdays in Port A in October to take the edge off...
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So what is our next taxpayer funded stock investment? That would be some useful information.
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Hmm so first time unemployment filings are in a good place, GDP in a good place, Home sales rising dramatically MoM. And Inflation slightly ticking upward. How does the Fed play the conflicting data? Do you take the Miran path of tariff are not taxes? And say that 2% interest rates are the cure for all ills? Which smart economists, that use data rather that political theories, thinking? That cutting rates could spur inflation? Welcome to the frog boil. Inflation creeping up though all consumer goods not just imports, and stagnation in job production due to tariff implementation. Still AI is chugging away, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Fed cannot fix tariff drag on hiring with lower rates. As that will cause inflation to rise. So the market is going to have to digest that. The fed won't have clear data on which way to go. Risk to unemployment without layoffs? Does pathetic job growth, but still low unemployment weigh more than incremental inflation creep towards 3%? Do you risk the inflation push with lower rates to cure 4.3% unemployment? This is the boil the frog scenario, where the data will move slowly. Likely both in a bad direction. NOT due to Fed policy, but due to Trump administration economic policy. Something the Fed cannot fix. Damned if they do, and damned if they don't.
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Did you mean accuracy?
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It was a book by his bedside... According to his ex-wife. Not that Putin doesn't enjoy the same reading, to be certain. Times like these I wish so many of my fellow citizens actually knew the the political origins of the changes in the power dynamics and use of demonization, leading into WWII. The use of the same tools, disinformation, citizen mobs, demonization of minorities, attacking the intellectuals, suppression of free speech and asking neighbors to report on neighbors. Lots of boxes being checked from my count. Using Christianity as the rallying point for all these tools, is the lynchpin. And these actions will affect the market over time. Can anyone tell me what is going to be good for the market long term, if these trends continue? --------------- We are now entering the "boil the frog" part of Trumps economic policies. Companies with diverse product lines are absorbing tariffs by raising prices across the board, rather than on the imported products where the increases are actually being felt. Because if they raise the prices only on the prices where the costs have increased, that would identify to the American consumer that tariffs do specifically raise consumer prices on specific goods. And that would be very bad... politically. What is better is to raise all prices a little bit, and for the retailer. Increasing prices on American made goods, to offset imported goods price increases. Increase price and profit margin on US made goods, to protect the sales of foreign made goods with import taxes on them. Now rather than having inflation limited to identifiable products the American consumer can specifically avoid. Instead the American consumer sees all costs going up at the grocery store. All to try and prevent political (not business) fallout of actually having the true costs of tariffs demonstrated to the consumer. When the expense is spread to all skus you cannot avoid it by, buying American. So FU consumer, let's create inflation that is unavoidable, slower and more sustained. On the Employment side of the equation you have the same boil the frog scenario. Mainly because our statistical modeling for job creation and unemployment depend on accuracy. And we have not had contractions in the workforce as a whole in the past. Trump's immigration policies have made this part of the equation very, very difficult to calculate and thus the information may be inaccurate until after multiple backwards looking revisions. It's hard to have an accurate percentage when your know the denominator you are using is likely inaccurate. Despite you best efforts for accuracy. On the bright side... Looks like fucking up our children via tik-tok is going to finally close in a big beautiful deal. Directly in opposition to laws passed by congress.
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No shit. I remember 16 Deluxe from my Club Foot Days. I met Pam before the show, with my buddy I went, he with was an UT RTF guy, so he knew quite a few folks. My buddy knew her so, we hung for the late night show. They were tight, and fun. I hope they get some SWSW slots, as I my wife would enjoy them too.
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Saw Vapors of Morphine at Continental last night. They were great. Just fun to hear something in a different sound range of Low Low... Got a great video of the song Buena, though I REALLY wanted to be moving, rather than trying no to blur the video. Second band "Living Pins" was actually surprisingly good as well. They have an early show at 7pm tonight seriously thinking of going again.
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NOT an opener - but the single best lyric in my mind is. Little old lady got mutilated late last night...
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Stray Cat Blues - It's NSFW lyrics and the Stones pushing the envelope of "decency" for some reason is probably my number two, call it 1A honestly. Sympathy for the Devil - is my favorite lyrically Gimme Shelter - I always love a slow intro to ready for the sound explosion. Best old school song of theirs to get on the dance floor to. Brown Sugar - Reminds me of my daughters hanging on the front row of the pit, on their video in '05 at Zilker. I can see clearly my curly headed ,half front tooth daughter, bobbing up grinning ear to ear singing the lyrics on the video. That elevates it much higher than it would be otherwise. Dad was cool that day...
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