
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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Don't disagree at all. Single best things folks can do is buy a little over time. One of the riskiest is buying a lot all at once, sadly a big red number taught me from experience. Right now I am simply trying to profit in a volatile environment. I still have a strong cash reserve. Almost bought some AMGN today and it's actually fucking green on my board. I just don't have to confidence to yet. But I have no certainty, and thus I have to hedge and spend money to try to protect any gains I get right now. If I was all negative risk on against the market, I would be killing it. But the risk would be far too extreme. I am waiting with cash to buy. Good new is Broadcom just put up a good number. I was worried about a bad one. Not for me but for Tech in general,
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Bought some options, then saw it start to lose momentum, and thought... "you fucking dumbass, you believe in uncertainty" and a bet on PLTR is that I was certain that the bottom had come. So bailed about 10 minutes after I bought those call options. Thank heaven. I think we are going to see a trickle of what next week will be an emergency plumber visit. A little push up, but maybe a few percent at most of the Federal firings? And getting the bonus of that first tariff inflation trickling onto the books as well? Yikes! March 21 was the date I circled originally back at the first of the year as when I thought the effects of tariffs and uncertainty would either hit, or likely not hit the market. My big fear is the uncertainty now is becoming a baked in drag on optimism, which drifts to consumer pullbacks, which drift to and assortment of consumer spending reductions. In what is ultimately a consumer driven US economy, that's not good mojo. So or a reverse money multiplier effect.
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oops
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The problem with the Trump policy at this point is not what the policy is or is not. It's the fact that it is proclaimed one thing, then policy whipsaws exactly the opposite direction. It's not the policy itself (which I personally believe will be very inflationary). But the lack of clarity sort or makes me view the market right now as my UVIX where it will basically daily degrade, under the weight of transactional friction and end of day rebalancing. The friction is now the problem. Because now even if a firm and permanent trade policy was implemented by the administration tomorrow, would anybody? And I do mean Anybody, think that the policy presented would be the final policy? Even if it truly was the permanent new policy, the assumption would be that the policy would again soon be revised. So it might take an extended (compared to normal) length of time for the policy to be widely viewed as actual policy. Right now "Policy" is a tweet, followed up by a very strong and principled appearance by Lutnick. Followed the next day by a very strong and principled Lutnick, strongly asserting the exact opposite. This friction... in my mind is like death by a thousand tiny cuts dragging on the market. My one Plus play in the market in this account is Since I am slightly open to a big drop in UVIX, I took a tiny nibble of PLTR Tuesday, with March 7, $85 covered calls. My net price is $81.04, and I don't get any topside FOMO until $89.70. But making 5% in 3 days, is how I build my original PLTR stake. If it closes OTM, tomorrow then I keep the shares and resell more calls on the next steep move upward, farther out for a larger premium. Of course this only works on a rising stock over time.
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That's why I have such a big bet against the market. But my big downward bet has done so well I have now burned money to hedge back to preserve those gains, in case the market has a nice rebound. If you have nice gains you want to protect you need to develop a reactive strategy, beyond hope. Or the concern will be exactly wishing you could get that capital returned. It is also good to point out that until you sell a stock you have not gained a penny nor lost a dime. Only at the sale point does that occur. OR Infant mortality rates in Texas... (wish I could laugh at that one)
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Is anyone besides me actually shocked at the apparent complete lack of anticipation by the administration of the most obvious pitfalls? I mean was it actually difficult to anticipate that without a carve out US cars will be increase dramatically in price? I mean is that not the most glaring potential problem easily identified? Or am wrong? On the huge plus side! For the first time in years Freshmen in ECO 101, actually get to live out the text they are read studying! Usually economic shifts take longer than a semester to really observe. Often years, but now freshmen can see the effects weekly or daily( perhaps hourly). Probably makes the class a LOT more fun to teach as the discussions and debate would be very current. I guess comparing and contrasting the Tariffs of the turn of the century and today, is a common writing assignment prompt in Economics classes across the nation.
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Russian Oil Exports just surged. Talk of loosening restrictions, no more cyber against Russia apparently, emasculation of Zelensky, paired with eternal deference to Putin. And today freeze on intelligence sharing. Well... it's been a very, very good year for Putin!
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But do you think this is the same actual level of exuberance today, that we had then? When Commerce Secretary Lutnick comes on TV Monday and explains that these tariffs are NOT anything but absolutely necessary because of Fentanyl, and then flips by the end of the next day as markets fall. Suggesting less that 48 hours later the administration may be flexible on what was an absolute necessity hours before? This is the person speaking for US trade policy. And I guarantee you Secretary Lutnick if asked could not write down on a napkin what US policy will be at any given data point in the future. And isn't that the definition of uncertainty? IF this was a corporate rollout... you would short the company. ADP reported big jobs miss, 77K vs 186K. And those provisional Fed folks are going to be hitting the books, about the same time the tariffs should begin to impact inflation. Next Friday is gonna be exciting.
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Anyone know an exterior painter in the Temple/Belton area? It's got a little second story work that is sort of gnarly as the house sits on a steep slope on the lake.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
If you think you can predict anything daily right now, Take your down payment, and triple your money in the stock market in three days! Or three hours with some risky options.! You have a special deal that allows you to qualify based on earnings, you do not yet have on the books. Highly predictable and likely earnings. That's why there is a Doc loan. Take the fucking rate, don't look back. And buy some cheap ass young person life insurance now to protect yourself and your family. Mainly because you have a leveraged loan based on your future earnings. Making sure that your coverage is far beyond that note would be the best way to protect your family. But as everyone with synapses firing has said... take the deal! The banks give you the deal because they know that they have a very good chance of getting that second loan when you don't need a special program because of your debt ratio. If you do both loans with the same company? Those are some sweet fees, and the first loan is less than a 5 year buyout... if you have a doc ego... 😉 -
Right there with you! Sold March $57 calls on 1/3 as my first try to get some cash for downside, and bought $39 puts, and sold $57 on the remaining 2/3 a little later as the gains receded.. The good news is that first 1/3 of calls I sold paid for the cost of the protection/income of the other 2/3. Learned from not keeping my PLTR stops tighter on at least some of my holdings. And that cost me. So at least I have some downside protection and a some more room to run to the upside.
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What's crazy is that this has been the plan for years, and has been fine tuned over the last few months to roll out. The execution of this shit is actually a microcosm of what is to come. When there is not a single soul in a room to offer a contrary opinion, management decisions are often poorly made, and poorly executed. They could have just laid out a timetable, and some clear 90 day guidelines for some reliability in potential decision making. The uncertainty IS my bet right now. You post Waaay back pushed me to start tiptoeing this direction as well. But leveraging something as volatile as UVIX is indeed both fun and scary.
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Good to know that on April 2nd, we will find out what the actual tariffs are going to be. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. These tariffs are going to stop fentanyl, the business ones will be revealed on April 2nd. I thought that might shave off my pre-market. The more I hear him talk, the more I feel very comfy betting against the market right now. Very comfortable.
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It's a risky as fuck ETF that is supposed to mirror 1 and 2 month VIX futures contracts at 2X. It has a nearly 2% expense expense ratio, and I bought it for a hedge against my PLTR, which I no longer own. I should have honestly used put options more to protect the PLTR as Insurance. Would have saved me a nice chunk on the way down. It's supposed the be 2X VIX - I'm in it because I see nothing but volatility in the near term. And tariffs are inflationary. Period. Large capital investment is already starting to wane, as how can a competent CEO's make decisions when economic policy from the Federal Government is akin to roulette? That's why I am in it. It's a short term hedge, that is now my only position. Basically it's a supposed to be a 2x volatility. So a 2x bet against the market.
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This is what I want to learn more about.
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Thought I stopped out on IBRX before the bounce last week. I'm out now. Better just to go eat at Red Ash a few times and at least have losses that taste good.
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Looks like ya'll had a great time!
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I am very sorry for all your losses. I thought about quoting myself a few times, but I can't feel really good about making money when those around me are losing. I am just glad I am betting against this market. What's funny is that while I had a great day. I also know that if the markets go down again hard in the morning. A wet finger will be stuck in the air... and the direction of the wind will potentially reverse todays policy. (if there is not a new twee I missed while writing?) Chaos is my friend right now. And I figure it's easier to bet against something that nobody at all can predict, that bet on something that nobody at all can predict... March 15th is going to make today look like a warmup... PS - I was upside down on UVIX, until I bought more after closing out my PLTR. and I left a LOT of fucking money on PLTR not selling sooner. but in a sweet spot now, at least until morning
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The biggest scam was the opening covid response- "free money for millionaires!" With the stipulation that they would not view amy approved transactions af fraudulent. So free money, need it or not.Cool to get a million tax payer dollars for preserving jobs when you were never going to lay off anyone anyhow. Now if some waitress got a couple hundered extra... THAT is where we need to prosecute. Biggest scam ever.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
FSBO rarely works in the sellers favor, in the long run. If you have people who like the house and wand to buy it (AND HAVE THE MEANS!). IF you have some live wires you can approach them to make competing offers before you list it. You could also do a carve out for the potential buyers you have already dealt with, in your listing agreement. But trying to sell it yourself when you have to move? I assume there is not an open ended, start date? Almost certainly a FSBO home is going to sit a lot longer on the market. And the listing can become stale. You are still going to want a buys agent commission to at least have some traffic of non-lookEloos. IMHO you are better off with a good agent, and a smart competitive selling price. But even if you are determined to go the FSBO route, interview two agents that are recognizable in your market, for a possible listing, market analysis, and suggested repairs and list price. That way you have an idea about what two professionals think you house is worth. And you know in advance who to call if the FSBO starts to drag. Best think you can do is figure out what your house is really worth, and figure out the net price you can live with. Let it be known in the area you would love to sell the house pre-listing. And you could cut costs, with a sales agreement via an attorney. Perhaps even an attorney that could also arrange an affordable mortgage... @Wulaw Horn The fact that you probably have a time factor involved in your relocation alone would make me fearful of the time a FSBO might take. Sell and move on... IMHO -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Do you sometimes simply say, no? That price is unrealistic, and I would be hurting and not helping you by listing at that price. Wish them the very, very best and tell them you would love to market their home at a price that will bring it off market with a sale. But in this case they probably do not have to sell. Thus no need for capitulation. I don't even consider houses like this legitimate listings. Because if you list a house at a price that will never ever fucking sell at a price remotely close to your asking price. Is it really for sale? I get that it's impossible to say no to any listing, no matter how stupidly priced. But the owner is not going to bend on a stupid price, the house is not going to sell, and the agent is going to waste shit ton of time. They will cut the price eventually. And I wonder if from a sales perspective saying no sometimes in the nicest possible way, might be the better long term strategy. Some of the most loyal accounts that were the hardest to get, I got by refusing to match a competitors impossible promise. They told the client what they wanted to hear, and I told them what they needed to hear. I also asked the for the business at this point, if the other guy doesn't deliver can I get the next shot. Again if they don't need to sell then this strategy won't work, because they will not capitulare so you can never be proven correct n the dumb ass sales price. -
On a small kid. I am cajoling you as long as possible. Wanting them to be a big girl or boy. But ultimately I will shove that pill down their throats. But that was Dad, not Grandad. But I don't give a fuck, you are going to take this medicine. From a psychological warfare perspective: If they are old enough to read ,I would tell them there is another way, but you are not going to like it... Open up a description of an enema on my phone and have them read it. While I started dragging in a garden hose from outside.... for visual effect. That pill should seem a better methodology to a smart kid. 😉
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Dude is both fast and fucking fearless. He's gonna get a check just to return balls. I would love like hell for him to return, but unless he has a girlfriend at Texas, he's going to be cashing an NFL check next season. I could not find his fumble count this year easily. But for the crazy ass risks he was taking punt returning? I was surprised he was not getting blown up and turning the ball over more regularly. He's going to be a good draft for somebody. He was honestly my favorite transfer this year.
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All I can say is that I missed out on how bad covid was going to be handled in the U.S. And I missed a huge opportunity to profit. We are going to get a shit inflation AND employment numbers the middle of March. I guess I could "Lay back and enjoy it," as Clayton Williams once said. But this time I am going to try to profit from it... or I could bet on Stupid?
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70 years ago trickle down was actually a decent stimulus concept. But that was only because of the limitations of investing outside the united states. Now a tax cut for anyone other than the middle class is a waste of money and a false stimulus. In that if something does not produce more than it costs, by definition. The bottom line is the tax cuts the GOP promises will create more tax revenue than they costs is simply a lie. They simply do nothing more than shift tax burden to lower classes, and concentrate more wealth into fewer and fewer hands over time. Did I love the cost of the borrowing that Biden did? Nope. But I also cannot ignore the fact that funding of infrastructure has been ignored by the GOP consistently, in favor of tax cuts that disproportionately help those that need the least assistance financially. Republican math simply has not added up in a very, very long time. Again I wish that just once, just one time, a Republican could hand off a economy to a Dem that was not a clusterfuck of some sort. But hey, cut taxes and all will be cured! It will be even worse with the most cowardly people I have ever seen sitting in elected offices with (R) by their names. Completely and totally gutless wonders from top to bottom. And that's exactly how democracies die...
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