horn4life

What I hope to see is Ewers healthy, and kicking ass! What I am afraid I will see? Ewers performing adequately, and us not stretching to a two score lead with a sluggish offense. I guess the biggest question for all of us, is will Sark stick with Ewers if his mobility clearly is a liability? I tend to think that Sark's leash will be a lot tighter in a dow or die game. I think that having head coaches truly care and support their players is what kids look for when choosing where to play. Along with stacks of cash these days. I actually expect Ewers to play well, and win the game. But in college football an immobile QB is a lot bigger liability than in pro football. Our defense won the last two games. Let's have our offense win this one... and early!

Well I made a shit ton yesterday, and like a dumbass didn't have multiple trailing stops on the UVIX retreat. I was so pumped my hedge worked I forgot to hedge back much on it. I guess that's one dumb way to avoid cap gains... Argh. What a dumbass... When I say "everybody," I mean "most of the fund guys, bankers, analysts, you name it on TV Not that they all were not concerned about valuations, but bullishness along with the term "animal spirits" were most prevalent lately. Plenty of contrarians, but I am just saying that if talking heads were the big board you would not see much red. Buffet sitting on his pile of cash was one of the reasons I started pulling back my risk. But fuck, I can't start selling when I think PLTR still has some legs. I did sell some January calls since it had a big run up today. (something I should have done with UVIX yesterday dumbass). I have calls to replace the shares farther out, but I got most of these shares selling calls, and buying with covered calls. I still wonder about a government shutdown. When Speaker Johnson says, “I’ve got one more little detail to work out, but we should be having a vote here soon.” he said, adding, “We will not have a government shutdown.” I always wonder who it is he is talking to?

On UVIX - DO NOT do what I did and buy a lot at once. It's going to pull back and provide a buying opportunity, as I imagine a last minute deal will happened to avert a shutdown. But I doubt it's going to pull more than half way back, so maybe a low 4's bottom?

So Short TSLA when Elon is cast out?

I can only pray that the Golden Domers... cry like Aggies at the end of this one...

The amount of wealth created and the end of the year, with new instability. But until a couple days ago, it was nearly impossible to find anyone saying that the markets were going to retreat in 2025. Trailing Stops... and hedges my be your best friends the next couple months.

PS - I lost money betting on NVDA at earnings not cashing out on the initial bump. I also lost money Buying TSLA 350 put before the election. Figuring his buyers were gonna dry up. But the surge from Trump and his clear ability to influence policy to his benefit were crazy to keep betting against. So licked my wounds and took my losses. TSLA is interesting to me. As I wonder what would happen if Elon like so many, falls out of favor and becomes... "an idiot." Then does TSLA plummet? No liberal buyers, and MAGA investors bailing? I really want to diversify but thats what 401K's are for. Instead I just moved the 401K to like 83% bonds Monday so hopefully those gains can be preserved. Hope you are right. I think PLTR is going to get a much larger chunk of our military budget especially if the DOGE boys have a say in influencing policy. Peter Thiel one of Trump's earliest backers should likely see favor. If you think personal favor might garner political and purse string influence.

Had my best day ever yesterday. As I moved 1/3 of our risky account into UVIX, to hedge against the huge run up of my PLTR. Both managed to go up yesterday. I am just trying to get to January to not eat a big dick on short term gains, with a tax bill in 4 months. I'd rather get a year and 4 months use before paying the tax man. I bought PLTR based on my long term view that there will be added value, based upon it's secure environment work. I think commercial accounts will find that same level of protection attractive. The UVIX allows me to ride things out with PLTR. But we just got a look at the Trump Presidency. A house of Representatives that will ONLY pass bills without any Democratic help... for the first several failed bill passage attempts. What we are seeing now is simply a completely unforced error by the incoming administration. The fact they thought the Dems would simply roll over and give Trump what he wants... when he can't get his own party to pass it? Snapshot of the future. But you can at least see a degree of predictability in that particular aspect on unpredictability. What is going to roil the markets is when Trump's largely unqualified appointees are confirmed. The stability that we have grown accustomed to will be tugged at from every direction, and WTF could be more "uncertain" than that. I was down about 20% on my UVIX, and hate that I had to dip into margin to maintain all my PLTR stock and options. But I figured the downside insurance was worth the risk. When I hear that nearly evey pundit and investor is sure the trees will grow to the sky (because of FOMO) it's time to hedge. UVIX my friends... Risky as fuck. But in my case designed to protect some pretty large short term gains that I would rather hold onto. The self inficted wound of simply not allowing the debt ceiling to be extended with a short term deal to provide stability was incredibly fucking stupid. Especially coming on the back of Powell's speech. I expect more wise decision making going forward! And as I told my wife, "we might bake $70K on UVIX in the next couple months." I might need to change that to "by the inauguration."

You are correct- that was part of my accidental first post. My statement is the exact opposite of what increased demand for Treasuries would do.

oops hit send accidentally - Valuations of stocks are sky high, and economic optimism is raging. But if in two months the tariff and deficit side of the coin is played then that means increased inflation. Massive increase in the deficit (which is what happened last time) is inflationary, whether it's spending or tax cuts. At this point I simply don't see anything but a collision between what Trump has promised and what he needs to deliver. One promise on immigration is going to squeeze employment in an inflationary manner more than we have ever seen in the home construction industry. Unless I am mistaken and the labor force building homes, at least in Texas are non-english speakers. I don't think I have had any work done on my house other than AC that was by predominantly english speakers. It may be great in 6 months, but I am hedging big that history repeats itself, and the unpredictability of the marketplace in so many areas will keep rates high as folks seek safe haven of US treasuries. I think we are in for a period of Governmental disruption the likes of nothing we have ever seen. I simply fail to see how such disruption, even if wildly successful, is going to lead to lower interest rates that folks were predicting for 2025 in September. But what I do predict is that buyers will indeed start buying again reluctantly. As they realize that the Fed is not going to be able to push rates lower, combined with a time sense of urgency among those who may have been waiting for rates to fall. And if the Stock market keeps climbing I believe that will help push net worth of potential buyers into the market as well. Not to the level that low interest rates would, but a gradual increase, slow but steady (too slow and unsteady for the industry). First time buyers will be fucked because they don't have money in the markets to see their down payment funds surging. I go back to what a lot of you guys got pissed at me for. The folks that wil make the most money in home industry will be folks that can convince buyers that these rates probably are not coming down much. How many buyers who really want to buy will wait 6 months to a year for the HOPE of a half point decrease? Trump for example just endorsed no longer having a debt ceiling. The bond market might view that as potentially inflationary. Hope I am wrong and my hedge is just a safety play. But I did not follow my gut on Covid and I literally missed out on an easy fortune.

I made my arguments pretty clear a month ago. Markets do not like instability, they like predictability. Try to find a post election market collapse. You can't. Because elections give clarity going forward. Unpredictability, makes any reasonable forecasting extremely difficult. The stock market is a forward looking beast, and I nearly came in yesterday saying how well I thought the markets were reacting to exactly what I expected from Powell. A rate cut, followed by a speech talking about the strength of the economy, concerns about hiring, but no need for action at current levels. The kill shot was when he said "it could take two more years to get inflation under control." (might be paraphrasing here) I actually put my money where my mouth was a month ago, and sold off some of my Palantir, and put 1/3 of my risky portfolio into UVIX. I also rebalanced the 401K Monday and shifted it from 90% stocks, to about 20% stock funds and 80% into bonds. That actually went up yesterday as well, which was amazing. So while I am not cutting and running from the stock market, I feel that it's wise to assume extreme unpredictability in the first few months of 2025 as political rhetoric becomes policy (or doesn't). That's the unpredictability part of the equation.

Since I am liquidating a shit ton of odd china, this is of interest to me. I predict that eventually you will shift to... lighter shit to sell! But good luck! If you enjoy it, keep doing it! I went to my first Austin Record convention a few months ago, and ran into a guy whose daughter I coached for years. He had basically become a Willie Nelson poster specialist. He even put a book together that he sells. He introduced me to the guy in the booth next to him, used to own Inner Sanctum Records for you olds. He sold mostly posters, but he also had a guy from Cali buying like $1000 of records a week from him, for resale out there. KNOWLEDGE and expertise in narrow areas seem to be the most important factors in any of these sorts of ventures. This is fucking crazy, but apparently some ugly ass corning ware we tossed from my MIL's estate, was worth like $2000 per piece! But we had not knowledge nor expertise. I have a shit ton of stuff that may or may not be valuable that I am going through. But I don't know WTF I actually have in most cases. I guess I will post some pics here.

This is basically the only reason we have cable anymore, for me to watch football. It's apparently on TNT, TBS and TrueTV. This may be the last year we keep the cable. Besides football the only other reason I have kept the cable is that I can cast any of my Direct TV channels wherever I am. Mainly in that I can have all the same stuff we have at home in our RV. That's a nice feature at night. But yes TNT vs one of the big boys sucks, but this shit is only going to get more fractured in the future as far as broadcast platforms.

Ok I paid- apparently this is my annual Venmo pmt.

Ok I signed up just now to catch the first game. But it's not prompting me to pay via the site?

Interesting takes bay all - Interesting to consider the "satellite location" aspect of a tech downturn. I was thinking more related to the super elevated valuations in the NASDAQ effecting tech more, and that housing markets that rise highest, tend to pull back the most percentage wise. The one thing I will say that if I were advising anyone, especially younger folks without kids, is look CAREFULLY at school districts when buying. Simply as I remember the RE crash and it was fascinating to see the houses hold their value better, and turn more often in the better school districts. If I am looking at two very similar houses, the ISD might be the deciding factor. It's not a huge thing, but when you need to sell in a tough market you need every edge you can get. And even in shitty markets parents are willing to spend a little more to get their kids a better education. IMHO.

Honestly I hadn't really thought about a more weighted downturn in Austin because of tech. I guess I have lived here so long I don't even really think of it as a "class" as it's so much of the Austin landscape. But if Austin falls... What about all the ticks that have been sucking on the big dog, like Buda, Cedar Park/Leander, Georgetown? Are their markets not also largely dependent on tech's rise or fall? IT's a huge issue in the Corpus Area. There is actually a lot of development about to happen on the Island that is going to change the landscape completely. The water supply there just fell below 20%. That's not a lot of leeway for error. The state should have been building desalination plants years ago for the area, when they started putting big money into dredging the channel and the bridge boondoggle that was going to bring a lot of employment. People need to drink water. And industry as a whole need reliable affordable water sources.

If they are hung according to their tie length, the older bro is at least winning that contest. But the fucking three different lengths of ties cracks me up. Bro #1, is channeling Homer Simpson on his tie length...

I have been saying for the last couple years that a LOT of the listings were simply, "maybe I can get this silly number?" Houses sitting 90 days without regular price reductions are NOT homes that NEED to be sold. They are houses that will ONLY be sold at a price that the marketplace will not currently support. "But two years ago..." will be the words out of the sellers mouth, when justifying their silly price. They are not IMHO true listings. I don't know what you call a listing that is never going to sell at the listing price, but there is a shit ton of this is Austin. About the only bear case in Downtown Austin is commercial real estate due to flexible work changing the landscape. Hell right now they pretty much sell the majority of their downtown condos before they even top out the building. So despite the homelessness issue, those very pricy units have been moving very quickly especially in presale. I will say that you are seeing some capitulation in downtown condo resales. Simply as if you need to sell, price capitulation is you only ally unfortunately. I did a quick "condo 2/2" search and zoomed in on the greater downtown area. And indeed I found the fuck up builder! Hogan ave Unit B Hogan Ave Unit A. not really downtown, but it popped up on my condo search. I do think that Austin is cooling to some degree after being white hot for a decade. But I also think that the love of Austin has run into the reality of 100 degree plus days all Summer. But overall tech is still in charge in Austin, hell Apple hasn't even finished it's monster campus up North. I am not sure what "family destination" means, but Dirty Sixth probably would not be on my list. But I see shit tons of tourist families every time I go see music on SOCO. But Austin is indeed a pricy, family destination, but homelessness is probably not a determining factor at all. Unless you really, really want to take you kids to Casino El Camino, on a Saturday night. But I can say the same for any downtown urban area. The difference is Austin probably has more high end housing infill, than any other city in Texas. Hell I am having a hard time finding a similar marketplace with that sort of infill? Help me out here?

if you are a builder you simply must either turn inventory, or stop building. Not a whole lot of in between. I didn't look at the video because in this market nobody is dropping their pants 50%. But empty completed homes also have carrying costs, and at what point do larger builders feel the necessity to cut margin if the homes are not turning? The guys who usually get fucked if the market tanks are the small builders. They hesitate and don't get out even at a small loss, then the carrying costs eat them up, and they sell an even larger loss. Or worse, the bank calls their loan, and they get wiped out. I think we are a long fucking way away from any builders losing money any time soon. Of course there are some dumb motherfuckers out there, so I am sure some builder if screwing up out there.

Here's the deal. Folks fucking hate Texas. And when you go to your kids sports games there are officials from the time they are 8 years old onward refereeing games. You know who are not a big part of that referee pool? Longhorns. Hardly any, from my life experience. And they tend to often have a negative view of Texas (envy, hatred, desire to harm) and it bleeds into their view of the game. Did we get fucked on calls for the most part? Absofuckinglutely! But that's the norm, not the exception. We will always have more questionable calls go against us, than for us. AND THAT IS NEVER GOING TO FUCKING CHANGE! And for Texas to win championships we have to not only win on the field but overcome, the shit calls we KNOW are gonna come our way. Again, and again, and again. But you have to overcome! To win at Texas you can't shoot your own self in the foot. Too many convict dressed folks already doing that. You just have to bear down, and overcome. No other choice.

The leader of South Korea, who ordered the arrest of his political enemies was rebuked, and Democracy seems to have held in South Korea. You know that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, sure wished he had his Pete Hegseth in charge of the military.... might have been a completely different story.

I don't do them a lot, but the bottom line is the reason you are smashing the burger is to get crispier irregular edges IMHO. The sear is the key, and fatty hamburger is some sticky ass shit. I sort of view smash burgers the way I view making homemade tortillas. Without parchment paper you have more mess than tortillas. In fact parchment paper is probably one of the more underutilized tools in the kitchen tool box. The "smash" is simply sustained pressure to get a uniform seal with the sear. Then it's just leaving the damn thing alone until you see the blood boil up to the top. Then you turn it, and DO NOT smash the burger again!!! if you want to elevate the flavor take the time to clarify some butter and use that as your oil! And of course only American cheese! If you are making the mini Hawaiian roll sliders toast the rolls. And you become a GOD! PS - if you are truly making the super seared smash burger in quantity you should get a heavy spatula with a 45 degree angle on the edge. As basically the best way to get the complete sear, is you are literally scraping the burger off of the griddle. Think about how you scrape a flat griddle of debris. Only the debris is attached to the burger in the sear.

1) Max 401K, then Max HSA, then look at Roth. First two are pretax. And you can take both with you if fired. 2) If you sold stock and have capital gains, then look at selling any loser stocks to offset those cap gains. 3) Review all your insurance, bank and brokerage accounts to make sure you have correct beneficiaries in place in case of your demise. 4) Take $100 and carry it around between now and the end of the year. And give it away to somebody, for any reason you deem. You will know the right moment, and it will make you feel really good inside.

Work hard, Believe, and appreciate the environment you are in. From that... can come true greatness!