horn4life

If I were running the tailgates, here is where my mind would drift- 1) get a food sponsor- If It were me I would call my BIL at Smithfield Foods and see what sort of sponsorship opportunities might be available. As they are the largest pork processor in the nation. If you could get Smithfield and HEB that would be the holy grail. 2) I would probably do what I used to do when I ran large soccer tournaments. Create T-shirts as a perpetual sponsorship opportunity for both large and small sponsors to get their names printed on the back of a T-Shirt. And some banner. Think of the shirts with all the sponsors you see on 5K run shirts for example. I combined the T-shirt sponsorships with a goodie bag of coupons and promotions from the sponsors. Not sure the best way to integrate this, but maybe just as a giveaway included in the cover charge? It's more about the sponsors than the T-shirt. 3) Merch - This as you said is an untapped potential profit center. This is also likely where somebody like me might find a lot of opportunities for cash flow generation. There is a reason why Merch is such a big part of the income stream for bands, and concerts. 4) Find a way to compensate whomever you choose to run this. As if they can't make money on it, they won't want to do it over time I think the deal I worked about years ago when I was running large soccer tournaments was 10% of the profit. It wasn't a lot as I had a passion for Soccer, but that little bit of cash made me do it longer than I would have otherwise. And the 10% I got was meaningless, as the profits increased far more than my meager compensation for the Association. 5) What is the dollar amount of the RevelXP contracting? Might that be an area where the person running the show might be able to do more work, but get more comp here? I never knew about Revel XP, but interesting business concept. As commercial tailgating I assume, is a lot like the party rental businesses, in that the profit is made once the basic equipment is paid for. Like the $2500 tent rental my buddy needed as a just in case for his daughter's wedding. That tent was paid for many, many times at $2500 a pop. This is the cost if I were running the event I would look at trying to shift from an expense to a future profit center. (but only if a multi-year operation) 6) Worker bees for setup and breakdown. This is a little out of the box, but I might try to develop a relationship with some of the local non-profit groups, to help with this. Sort of like UT would have group volunteers come in and run the concession stands for the non-alcohol stuff. I assume a lot of what you pay RevelXP for is simply having the warm bodies there to set up and take down the event. It might be the most fun volunteer event of the year in some places (if they don't hate us) Anyhow that's my slow moving morning take. It's honestly sort of an interesting opportunity. Seems like the areas of potential additional cash flow are Merch, additional sponsorship, and replacing the RevelXP expenses with lower fixed setup costs (may not be possible?). Probably other places for small slices of revenue, but those are the larger ones I assume.

So not a single fucking thought on the actual game time? Though I do enjoy assumptive relationship advice...

I think I would rather say yes to one of the very few favors my wife of 38 years asks of me. Of course I am not a panicky type... 😉. And, I fucking like her company more than that of others. But thanks for the McCauley Caulkin point of view...

Well shit. My wife is invited to a shower on game day. That starts at 3 fucking o'clock!!!! I assume they (sort of like me) thought the game was going to be on Friday. The kicker is the damn shower is at The Bowie on Rainey, and apparently there is no parking?!?!?! So the wife want's me to drop her off, and pick her up. I of course will adapt and overcome. But what do you guys think the odds of the 2:30 kick vs the 7 pm kick? I can say fuck it, you find parking. I guess alternatively... where the hell should I watch the game if I am playing chauffeur downtown if it's an early kick....

Any predictions for this report that's going to come in, in about 30 minutes? I am assuming no good news, maybe the tiniest tick up on the MMI. Rates obviously higher on the 30 year, right?

Hey what do you guys int he industry predict the 30 year and Mortgage Market Index to come in at tomorrow?

I am referring to the 30 year mortgage rate, last week the 30 year sat at 6.81%. My assertions are based on that rate. I expect that 6.81 to what? Barely budge at all with a 1/4 point Fed move? And then budge in the wrong direction? I hope like fuck I am wrong and I am seeing 4.5 rates out the wazoo in the Spring. But right now I am looking at how to keep my stock market gains moving forward in a market that I think is going to be very challenged from an inflation and instability perspective. So 10 years treasury futures, are one of the investments I am looking at, if things go as I expect. I am data mining contrary opinions. We have also in that same 20 year period of low rates had low inflation. My assertion is that inflation fears are going to probably be backed up by inflation reality. I am trying to figure out the best ways to profit if the assertion is correct. My suggesting austerity, and precaution are simply cautionary. Better to prepare for worst case scenario, and be gleeful in a best case scenario. No worries, I take no offense. I am talking broad markets and economics. Not the nuts and bolts specifics of day to day mortgage lending. My appraiser buddy was giving a historical perspective. And nobody in the audience agreed last January that rates were not going to be back in the 5-6 range by last Summer... As far as "your responsibility" it's not. But when you are trying to help out any potential client, you are ultimately trying to close a deal. If you can convince more folks that the number right in front of them (I said capitulation) might be as good an interest rate as they are going to see? Does that get a deal closed? Or just piss them off, because they don't like that assertion? Eventually the market dictates, normality in interest rates. But getting people to sign on the dotted line for the biggest purchase of their lives is an emotional close. At least IMHO. Yep- he replaced Yellen. This is what I am saying. I fail to see where the downward pressure is going to come from. With the exception of a really shitty economy. Which I know none of us want. My perspective is NOT from the mortgage industry. But I come here to get a feel for what folks who work in the industry are thinking now. I used to come for more general questions. Since I have a background in economics I simply see a lot more danger than safety in rates if you are hoping for a large decline. I am also a worst case scenario guy (I have a suture kit in my tackle box). As I try specifically to find any potential negative. If you search hard for the negatives and can't find them, then you just might have a good idea or plan. I am just seeing a lot more external factors making me lean toward rates increasing rather than decreasing.

I don't see a recession coming in the 1st quarter. With the amount of sideline money coming into the stock market after pulling out prior to the election, a 1st quarter recession would only happen if business investment collapses. Which I don't think is a possibility until Q2. Now I am talking the general economy. RE is basically in a recession already. But RE does not define the entire economy. Now Q2? there will be a lot more clarity in the levels of spending and direction of the new administration in Q2. OR employment is a LOT more in the shittier than I think it is, or has been reported. RE is one of those industries, like Oil and Gas that is cyclical. But a period of more than a decade of falling interest rates has made RE nearly non-cyclical, in that the big negative swings that are a normal part of cyclical business cycles has not dipped too far to the negative side. The last year has been about the worst, and you have not see tons of realtors, mortgage brokers, and appraisers shutting their doors. From my perspective I simply see very little that is going to cause rates to recede. Rates should have pulled back with the 1/2 and 1/4 point cuts, but what did we see? So I guess what I am saying is that you guys in the business need to prepare yourselves for a bumpy fucking ride. What I would be trying to do if I was in your shoes is to try and tell the tale (whether you believe it or not) that these rates may come down some, but if your buyers are waiting for 5%. It's a pipe dream. Only when "the norm" is that today's rates are not oppressive, will movement again start in earnest. It's all about the perception and expectation. The sooner folks in the mortgage industry capitulate and can convince buyers that lower rates are not on the horizon, then buyers will not delay, delay, delay, hoping for that house they loved at 4.5% a few years ago. And that will only take place when the majority of folks in the industry think that rates are about as good as they are going to get. As I said before I think we might see 6.25% in the spring. But I would be shocked to see 5%. From a 10,000 foot perspective the industries I see hurt worst from a mass exodus of cheap workers via deportation, are agricultural, restaurants, and construction. Which should naturally increase costs in all three industries. Anyhow sorry to be a Debbie Downer. But the folks that are gonna make money in mortgage lending the next couple quarters are going to be the brokers that can convince their clients that these rates are the "new norm." And that you might be looking at 11% in two years. Simply as FOMO is a great sales tool. The RE market right now is a dream for an interest rate FOMO, that I sadly think is not going to occur. So those that can sell these rates will survive. Those that are waiting alongside their clients for a couple percent drop? Maybe... I would already be in austerity mode reducing my spending as much as I could, if I were in RE. There is a reason you need to save a lot of money in cyclical businesses. Unfortunately this lesson is one largely forgotten in the RE industry, because we have had a very, very long period of low rates keeping things flowing. AGAIN, hope like fuck I am wrong. But I would be trying to prepare myself for a sustained period of reduced income.

His was more of a "get used" to higher rates and adapt. That we have had an extended period of very low interest rates that have now become "the norm" of expectations. His basic premise was that the low rates were not and never were "the norm." But a period of sustained aberration, that incorrectly was now viewed as a "new norm." I need to grab a drink with him and make sure I am not misconstruing his presentation. My recollection was that he was regurgitating some of the same mortgage rate thinking, after the market meltdown in the early 80's, and at that point rates were significantly higher than they are today. Then as now, that 6% rate is where the RE industry can be healthy and sustaining. Above that... not so much. Which I think most everyone here is in agreement? "Norms" are all about expectations. And right now higher interest rates are viewed as outside of "the norm" so buyers are waiting for a return to that expected norm. Only after the expected norm is not reached in the time frame expected do expectations change. A good example is, how many people thought that prices would return to the highs we saw here in Austin. They refused to drop their price, as "the norm" was so much higher just a few short months before. There we lots of listings that I views as "not real listings" as they were only listed to see if an extraordinary price could be obtained. They were not really looking or needing to sell, just willing to list to see if that could get that super high price. I viewed these listing as not real, in that they had a price stipulation in the minds of the owners that was not obtainable. Eventually owners who actually needed to sell or move have only one choice, capitulate on price. This will be the same come to Jesus reckoning, on interest rates. But the expectation is still that very low sub 5% rates were "the norm." Gradually the expectation of that norm rate is going to change. Hell, my Dad bought a condo with I think a variable interest rate of like 12%, in the very early 1980's. Covid forced the Fed to push rates down to try and keep the economy moving. I simply do not see what is going to keep pressure on downward rates? Fed is going to cut once more this year, then the government spending picture is going to start coming into focus, with crunchable data the Fed will have concerns about. And the last time Trump was in office the deficit rose to twice twice the annual rate of any prior administration. Deficits put upwards pressure on interest rates. Deficit spending and inflationary tariffs I am afraid are going to short circuit any chance for that 5% you guys in the business are hoping for. As I think the double whammy of increased deficit spending and higher costs due to tariffs will conspire to keep rates higher for longer. I hope desperately that I am wrong, but I think a year from now, today's rates will not seem as out of whack. As time will have changed "the norm" of expectations. If we can just get to 6% then the RE market can at least get it's feet underneath it.

My appraiser buddy did a presentation on interest rates to a mortgage broker last year. It sort of pissed them off. His assertion was that a 30 year rate of 6% was what was necessary traditionally to sustain the industry. Reading back a few pages, I realized why all the brokers were pissed. It's difficult for so many now to remember when a 7% interest rate was "OK." I think that rates are gonna fall maybe .75 at the very, very most this Spring. In fact honestly that may be generous, as after the December cut (I anticipate) the Fed is going to be very hard pressed to continue cutting. As I think it will start to become apparent that 2% goal of the fed will begin moving in the opposite direction. Hope to fucking hell, I am completely wrong. But a year from now, sadly, I think today's rates may look a lot more reasonable than they do currently. I do not think the 30 year will come close to sniffing 4% this year. I am hoping like hell for 6%, this Spring, but my guess is a 6.2% bottom. Again hope I'm wrong...

Insurance in Florida is about to become one of the key price point pressures. Perhaps Florida will become an adequately funded insurer of last resort, writing policies. But more often than not these things are underfunded. I wanted to check my memory and this was what popped up.https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/11/business/citizens-insurance-hurricane-milton/index.html#:~:text=The state-backed nonprofit home,largest provider in the state. Highlight was they have 1.3 million policy holders and $15 billion, back on October 11th. Not sure what your replenishment rate is, but avg Fla house is $400K, that's $520 billion in insured property, with 1.3 million policy holders. If you can't get insurance, who is gonna lend you money on an uninsurable home? At any rate. One a completelu different subject- what do you guys think about loans of longer duration than 30 years? I can see the fact that most folks don't stay even 10 years in a house, google says 8 years on average. But I can see arguments to the contrary. Just wondering if you all had any thoughts?

I can't decide how the Bond market is going to react to the election. My gut is that rates (have not acted as usually expected) are still high because of Trumps' viability and the economic impact of his traditional levels of spending combined, with a propensity for inflationary tariffs. Or do they think that either candidate is going to simply spend so massively that is does not matter? My gut is the former. IF so is a Harris wins does that makes the bond bet less attractive with a continuation of "status quo" economic policies? Or is it the latter? Instability in the middle east is also a big factor, but I just don't see Iran risking a big attack due to the potential response. With I also think is part of the interest rate stew. I guess we will know in a week or so. It will be interesting to see the Bond markets reaction in the coming days. If things unfold as I think they will, I think that the bond market will give you guys the drops you are begging for. If not... I am gonna need a cash buyer on my Dad's remodeled Lake House.

Well... So what exactly is the math from a head coaching expense standpoint to move Aggie tears from October to November 1st? That's a lot of green for a day...

May all your dreams come true! 😉.

Well after seeing Trump's triumphant return to Madison Square Garden, I thought to myself. That is the largest gathering of this like minded group in the Garden since February 20th 1939. With the only exception being that Trump has told us he was a better President that the guy on the wall in the black and white.

Well I have to tip my hat to Elko, he saw the game slipping away and made a change that literally changed the game. Whether that can prove to be a season changer is yet to be seen, but it was a season saver! A&M hasn't been this close to a championship since the last century, at this point in the season. In fact, I can't remember the last time the end of October offered as many cheers as tears for the Aggies.

well... that was unfortunate

I was talking about my early concerts the other day. First buy a ticket concert and go alone was in 1975 (I think)Too Smooth and The Electromagnets , at I think what they called the Farmer's Market in Town and County. First REAL concert was when my Dad drove myself and the two hottest girls at my junior high school to go see Greg Allman and Dickey Betts in November 1973. Bought a lid off the Usher... we were bad 8th graders.... My Dad actually drove us and took a lot of pics. I am going to start searching for those pics in his storage.

From a Alejandro Escovedo Continental Club hangover- FIGHT

Got the wild hair and went down and saw Alejandro Escovedo at Continental Club last night. Live recording taping, night two of three. It was as always a great show. Alejandro is gonna be one I am really gonna mourn when he passes. Until then, gonna try and see him whenever I can. Apparently the set list was very different from night one, except for mainstays like Castenets according to my buddy who also went Wednesday. Went and saw Restos geezer hour residency last Thursday at C-Boys. They are the remnants of Western Youth, and I really like them. Reminds me of the 80's and Tom Petty on some of their offerings. And I love they always have a guest, who basically plays between Restos' sets.

I did for the very first time. I was mainly looking for a music poster to match a poster I miraculously found at Goodwill for $4. But I picked up a really nice Rank and File Album. Alejandro Escovedo looks like a baby! Got a Skunks album as well, but it was the second one with the twins, not the original with Jon Dee. So I am gonna look for that one. But a really good haul. I think my collection pace is gonna pick up. As I grabbed a near mint Linda Ronstadt, "Heart like a Wheel," The Pretenders "Singles" album, also near mint or better, and an beat up old Animals album cover with a great condition album inside yesterday at Half Price books. But I got below is the T-Bird's poster I found to match my Goodwill Asleep at the Wheel find. I paid $225 for the T-Bird poster, down from $300 at the end of the day on Sunday. Which sort of stung but it was a good match. Then I went home and saw my signed and numbered Asleep at the Wheel poster was worth at least $250? I was estatic. Anyhow these two posters are going to be mounted on the inside slide back doors on Whiskey/Tequila cabinet. So I am stoked! But a nice poster spread from the convention. Downtown was actually cool Saturday with so many folks heading to the game and track. The wife and I went to C-Boys, for Jesse Sublett's Birthday party with Jon Dee a few hours after my Skunks album find. I anyone finds the original Skunks album I am interested.

I can sort of see it... Secretary of Transportiaton WuLaw... And the tent will play well with the rural voters! 😉 But on point more,the thing that will move the fed is the lowest rate of first time home buyers. But the Bond guys think the uncertainty with Israel and Iran is worth pressing. So until that little snafu has a reasongly predictable outcome... mortgage rates will suck...

Well that was a beat down. I would bitch about the refereeing but that's a constant that Texas always has do deal with. Imagine if Texas occasionally got dumbass calls in their favor? Anyhow like I said some things are a given, and that's just the lay of the land, and that knocking of our dicks in the dirt was simply a case of being dominated. We played exceptionally poorly on offense, but that's because Georgia came our with their hair on fire, and was desperate. They played with an intensity far beyond what we displayed on both sides of the ball. We played pretty darn well in the third quarter, but it was too little too late. Sometimes the other guys are pretty good too. And this was a case where they flat out beat us. With a 12 team playoff the loss only changes our seeding placement, and we still have the ability to achieve all our goals. But we can't play again like we did this weekend. I agree with the criticisms about Ewers lack of being a running threat. Without at least a threat of a QB run in the college football landscape, it allows great defenses. to simply lay back their ears and attack. Arch has better running ability, but he fared no better, unfortunately. Now we find ourselves in the spot we have been so very lucky and tried so very, very hard to avoid. The oldest tale ever attached to Texas football... a QB controversy. Hopefully we can rally and regroup. But this one is gonna leave a mark. Our dominating victory over OU seems a little less shiny after their beat down by South Carolina this week as well. While we are on the wrong side of the coin on this one, these games are exactly why I love college football. The emotion and unpredictability of each week of College football, that's what makes it exciting. And... emotionally brutal. Let's spit out this shit sandwich, and get back to work. Everything we want except an undefeated season is still a possibility in front of us. Regroup, refocus, and get back to the standard!

I've gone to San Juan the last few times and they are good. Plus there is the Ice machine nearby at the laundry mat, so for my early fishing needs it's a good choice. First Texas OU weekend I haven't been in Port A the last 20 or so years. Trying like hell to get down at the end of the month, this is a lost year with all the stuff with my folks. And only been down a few times. But October is my go to... I imagine the land for Moby Dicks is prime for redevelopment for some deeper pocketed investors. As that building is how old? I am sort of the same opinion as others, the kids loved it but only decent fare. I actually think Virgina's food is as good as it's ever been. I finally got forced into Grumbles by my buddy because of his Pina Colada love, and when you add a dark rum floater it was pretty good. Still haven't been to Sip House, but it looks fairly happening. Fingers crossed down in two weeks.

Dominant - Big B rules! Dominate - We're Ganna Run It!