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horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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So you can't make as many deals, your client can't make as many deals. Wonder if that will come into play in the coming months profits? 😉 Saw the first little stickiness of unemployment. And was strong consumer spending a plus on forward momentum? Or a rush to push future planned consumption forward in time to avoid tariffs? I know two friends who did just that on cars they were contemplating, but pulled trigger for fear of price increases. On the long side of the coin, a deal would spike the markets. Hell the content of the deal would not matter at all, just a deal. Some sort of forward movement indicating a light at the end of the tunnel, regarding stable predictability. So if I am the WH, I give Japan a great deal saying there deal was ONLY because they were first in. When the reality might well be... we gotta get a deal... any deal. Doesn't matter how you get to point B, the market wil love it. As the details are looked at, against the premises initially stated and making these tariffs a national emergency? I doubt the math is reflective of that, which will take a lot longer for the market to digest. Anyhow interesting times of unpredictability we live in.
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So, do you agree or disagree with this statement. CEO's will be less pessimistic and less critical of the governments role with tariffs in their forward looking guidance. Simply as I think they know that, if they say something overly honest (thus critical) they could face swift retribution from the White House, in a manner we have not seen before. True? or False? If this is true, then a more flowery picture of the economy going forward will be repeated again and again. Instead of giving brutally honest forward looking guidance. I realize there is always some fairy dust sprinkled in. But I think we are about to see some of the least honest forward looking guidance we have ever heard ...
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HaHa for a second I thought it was Port A... But no marina angle like that, I am aware of. Did catch my first trout in the surf in 18 months after sacrificing a year of my life taking care of my folks. And walked into a place today, called Grander Distributing in Georgetown. Because I liked their Marlin logo, had a mount of "the grander" (1000 lb) monster hanging in the lobby. I should have take a picture of that bad boy. Made my excitement over a 19-3/4 trout and it's little head shake, sort of
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If I did not need to tow this is where I would be looking. BUT --- I am also NEVER going to buy the first year of a new transmission or engine. Engineers are brilliant. But my I went for 6 speed tranny in my 2020 Silverado and my BIL got the new 10 speed... thank GOD he bought an extended warranty. $14K replacement... at 57K if my memory is correct. I just don't trust shit until it's in the field a year or two. Early Ford Turbo F-150 comes to mind as well on early issues. But after the shake out, a good design. IMHO
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Meant to post earlier, but my thesis is still the same. When I ask, How many deals by the weekend? I ask it because we retreated, and kicked the can down the road for 90 days. My assertion is the ask is too big, and the retreat too damn quick to get any deals quickly, unless its from partners so weak is will be meaningless. I think this is going to now be a slow descent. Slow brutal and gradual. I will say I forgot PLTR's earning were today. Glad I dumped my puts on Friday, that would have been very expensive. I took a small bath the last few days. but big swings I am getting used to. It's staying the course longer term. There is definitely some "Vegas Mentality" where you are playing on 'house money" and your risk aversion is much less. So numbers that would have freaked me 2 months ago, are simply swings of a meme administration. We honestly have not see ANY of the bad result of this stupidity, But it is coming. the drag on earnings and forward guidance are coming. And why would China negotiate with us? We are like an Army in disarray, just sit back and let the strategic mistakes of your opponent play out. If I was Xi that's what I would do. You know what is sad. I want so bad to be long! But you guys let me know, when the destruction of US household wealth, is worth the shock and awe plan to get folks to the table? Add listen to what the Administration tells you is happening, versus what is actually happening. I think to most folks outside the US, it appears we honestly do not know what to do smartly to get to the place we want on trade or tariffs. Hope I am wrong for all of you that are long. But right now... I only see confusion, and lack of clarity, for like... months...?
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So I am curious. What do you think the over under is for trade deals for the Sunday news shows? With 70 countries in line, and Bessent tossing sweeteners today to the first one in....This will be 2-1/2 weeks since "liberation day?" Despite claims of 70 countries calling and begging, will there be deals. Or maybe two, from the smallest and weakest countries of all. Mainly because Trump has shown himself to be weak. Both strategically and with a steady retreat on his boldness. So why make a deal now when your opponent keeps retreating from his prior unmovable positions? SO HOW MANY TRADE DEALS BY THE SUNDAY SHOWS KIDS?
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Well did manage to catch a few fish at at the coast. Only one nice trout and a shit ton of huge whiting. good eating but small filets. Mid morning Friday I was doing good up Around $13K in two days. Dumped my PLTR Puts at like 2:30 Friday and instead of doubling my oney and selling made made $100, but was afraid of PLTR bouncing this AM. I thought I was going to be holding only 300 shares of UVIX this AM. I thought when I looked at 2:40? leaving the beach that my $69 and $72 calls I sold were going to be exercised on at least the $69 calls I sold. So holding 700 shares this AM, Down $7K this AM, putting me into the Red ON my "Undertaker" purchases) by around $4500 if the open is down $10.50 ish. Anyhow I will be losing today for sure on UVIX. Definitely eroding my gains, but main thing for me is not to wash out them out completely. Still am very unsure we have seen the bottom. As eventually the unemployment and inflation numbers are going to creep in and some of the illusions will wash out on those I think. Or I will be wrong. Tariffs will not increase inflation, capital investment on monster projects will roar, and unemployment will stay at the great level the administration inherited (again), and interest rates will drift downward... All of which are a possibility. But I am trying to figure out which one of those will actually come to fruition. Anyhow good luck to all of you today. Good day for longs!
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To be fair those were free and you could not be prosecuted if you took the money without need.
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Oh... I was wondering what the push downward was. House got step one of massive deficit budget bill one step closer forward. One stupidity pulls slightly back as another strongly pushes forward to fuck up the economy. So, is there any history on how economies perform over 4 years with a 35-40 VIX?
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Well... I guess we can all look forward to Trump's fix for social security. Too bad I don't know how to bet against that and make money like I do for tariff stupidity.
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So fuck - now I sort of have to pay attention to my positions. Fucking rising so fast that Trump might completely surrender to Xi by this afternoon. That would burn me again. That was me at 4:30. Wife thought I was nuts, then I started buying. Already ran past my calls but if it holds 20% in two days? Gotta like that.
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WuLaw is basically good guy, but his Economics are more of the Navarro variety. And I can see getting really excited over a "win." Especially when you thought you were going to be making big bank writing mortgages, writing deals with a 5 in the front of them. So, I imagine there is a lot of stress for everyone in the RE business, especially lending. Now you have potential buyers with less net worth in nearly every case than they had two weeks ago. Risk is everywhere, and rates on the 30 year moved up?!?! 10 year not going where you thought. That.s not side investment account money, that's how you make a living money. So I give him a pass on getting so excited on seeing some real hope. I also like to hear from opposing views. I also wish that when folks come to this thread they do insert at least a little bit of prediction, question or something specific! beyond the obvious political aspects of this. Hey, I got run over in covid as I was more of a newbie, and was stupidly not in the market a month before the VIX started moving. As I was the first person talking about the impending doom as any bad info getting out of China means really bad. And I had a big stack in the bank looking to buy another flip house. I got smoked as I came in late and the Fed saved the day. I knew the Fed was unlikely to save on a disaster made by an individual, when the individual could change course. I had the losses that educated me better on the Fed's powers. I sort of see the market as vacillating, getting the occasional move upwards but more of a slow drift downward. UNLESS - We have a slew of deals with a bunch of countries starting today and running through the weekend. It will be interesting to see. Or will we see a weekend of Sunday News shows of mostly incoherence when it comes to the math? If my calls expire OTM I will carry some positions through the weekend. So how many deals inked by Next Wednesday? Now that everyone that is negotiating with him knows who was the first to blink under pressure? Does that influence negotiating strategy, when your strategy was strength? Or am I misreading that? *** What really sucks is we saw what could have been today regarding inflation. What a fucking shame.
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So had to jump in a bit more. I don't see a damn thing that is going to really drive the markets upward. No more fake or real surprises to pretend the policy is not stupid. Again easy fucking money. Something tells me yesterday's most excited and newly prolific poster will not be back extolling his genius. Funny how most of the folks that go full CR are not usually giving any insight into what they invest in, or what they think they should invest in. NOW THAT would be of interest to me. For obvious short reasons. Hope you guys sold on the bounce! Got 10% of my $40K Unrealized gains I did not realize. But UVIX covered calls are silly returns.
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Well I was wrong, no creeping in of Trump policy into Jobless and inflation. Market should be surging on that news right...? 😉 So bought couple hundred shares of UVIX at $58.25... will sells calls on those sometime this AM. But gotta get my shit together to hit the road. No worries at all about a big upside any time soon
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Yeah- as I watched the Dow futures go from 300 up after hours to 650 down as there starts to go the manipulated rally. Could have just held and made back $10K before dawn. Alas poor stupid little me, only bought back in a little against the Trump Economy. Well we sort of have. meme economy now don't we? To match the meme administration. The good news is we are not going to see a 2000 point decline on top of where we were before Trump surrendered, this morning. And like I told the wife last night at dinner, I would gladly give up $40K of such easily found money to not have us push past a recession. I can make plenty of money in a decent economy, and those around me can prosper as well. ------------------------- THE BLOW BY BLOW But since I put my shit out there yesterday, I will give you a snapshot of me trying to get my unstopped shared out. I hit my six figs, and then it pulled back. The doubling of my PLTR puts had eroded to almost even, and I was talking to my buddy about dropping everything and going fishing. I opened my screen and went ahead and sold the PLTR, as I made a lot on it in the past, and seeing it start to move against me, I dumped it. I opened my screen and place a sell order for 500 shares of at I think 92? And made a drink, realized I needed to refill the hummingbird feeder. So put some water in a pan to heat it to mix in the sugar. Went to look at tides and winds for Port A, Go outside to grab feeder and my watch alert goes off, showing a move past $89 on UVIX. I go back to my screen, as I heard something about Bessent canceling a meeting,mI fast forward TV... Then things start to move , I jump to the open sell order, and I cannot get my open order to change the limit... Then it fucking freezes. So after a few more clicks and waiting get the Power Etrade screen open and finally get a limit sell executed. Whew! I am out with a stack of cash in the bank and some FOMO grief. As I see a blip flash in red reading $-107,000 on my screen in red, and it's gone. I start to panic, yelling," Fuck, fuck, fuck,! "Oh shit, I think I just lost it all!" My mind racing, I KNOW I fucking put in a limit and not market order. My fuck, fuck, fuck brings the wife out to see what is happening. Finally I get the slow ass view to come up and yes I did not hit MKT and the loss was only $40K and not all the profits and beyond. I guess the 500 shares that had stops, may have been selling at the same time as I was trying to sell the remaining up-stopped shares, caused the -107,000 to flash? I am upset but relieved. And wife is consoling, saying, "I don't know how you have been even doing this, it's all so stressful." and "You still made us so much money!" What a great fucking wife! She comes out about 15 minutes later to get some water and says, "What the fuck! What are you doing!" Standing over the stove the pot I was using to heat the hummingbird water is just pot starting to glow red. I grab the pot, wash it down with water as steam fills the room. Had I left, to run my now fishing focued errands I might have burnt the house down, or severely damaged it. So another crisis averted. ----------- Anyhow, while it's never fun to see $40K disappear, I was regularly seeing $40-50K swings daily on UVIX. So big swings were something I sort of got accustomed to, because days are like months. So end of the day I only booked $50K in 4.5 trading days, did not lose $107K, and did not burn my house down. Just thought you guys might have enjoyed the blow by blow... Hook'em and good luck to all of youQ
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Anyone down in Port A this weekend? Going to do a last second trip down tomorrow for some fishing and fun. Saw it was Shorty's B-day and Patrice Pike and her band were in playing a 4 pm show there Saturday. Probably coming off the beach around then, with I guess the local Psych band Triponite... but always love me some shortys.
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I think we have permanently damaged the reputation of the United States as a safe place to invest for international investors. I think the strength of the dollar has also eroded as a safe haven. I do not think interest rates are going to be falling anytime soon. Because we are going to have higher inflation. I said back when the President was elected that we would be very, very lucky if we got to 6.25% mortgage rates this Spring on the MMI. I felt we would be closer to 7% because of the inflationary pressures that tariffs cause. This is still the same case as it was in November. We are going to want to borrow a shit ton more money for the big beautiful budget bill and it's not going to be paid for. At the very best it will be "pretend paid for" with some accounting trickery. And we are going to have to pay a higher rate than necessary to fund that. We are not going to get a shit ton of foreign investment in the US because we are not as stable a place to do business as we were 10 days ago. There is a longer term cost to the level of stupidity and simply not accounting for the most obvious results of their policy. They really just did not anticipate the most likely scenario. To me that is fucking scary as shit, from the folks running the USA Corporation. Now it's just going to be more of a slow motion roll out of stupidity. And for me... that is sort of hard for me to bet on long at this point. I also think the only reason we are not staring at the cliff, is some fiscal conservative house member was not going to vote to add a shit ton of debt in this environment. So kick the can down the road, get out of the house, then back to math that simply does not add up.
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Ok had to rehshort PLTR... first little bite Some of the airlines went nuts, what do you guys think has over bumped?
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Tomorrow you are going to see the beginnings of Trumps actions in reports and today was the day to blink, because tomorrow might have been off the cliff. I also think it's hilarious as shit that folks actually think this was a plan. This was a lie to cover a mistake, nothing more nothing less. At least there is clarity and certainty this afternoon... Shit I want to reshort PLTR at $92
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So this was all a master plan.... I still gotta feel good about +60K in a week. You guys let me know when this secret plan gets everyone their 401K money back. Just another day of US Economy the game, Trump Addition. At least I bailed on the PLTR puts earlier in the day. Still not confident in coming back in.
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Well that was fucking expensive.... that's why they are called unrealized. Funny as fuck. I was about to just close it all out and go fishing with a buddy. That was a $40K haircut but out. I was completely wrong. Trump blinked. I thought it would take a lot more downside. My stops were loose but helped. Should have bought a flats boat...
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Tomorrow morning premarket is going to likely have some serious movement. CPI , Initial Jobless and Consumer confidence reports before market. I expect a negative upside to all. But what has me scratching my head is... will the market rally on bad news.. because Fed forced to the Rescue? What would spike the market honestly is an announcement from the White House that they had made a deal with somebody, anybody!
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Fed is going to have to step in. And that's when I start getting fucked. And that is why the market is getting a little bounce today I assume. And yes... bragging is almost an instantaneous reversal of fortune. Damn boomer post... But Trump just told folks to buy... signed the tweet DJT and DJT spikes... lemmings...
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PS sorry for bragging on my gains. The boomer comment set me off when so many of my friends are truly terrified about that the retirement they were planning in the next year or so, may not be possible. And that sucks in your 60's.
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Yeah - I'm 34% cash now. should be 40% by close Friday with no change. I told my wife this strategy was risky, but I also said this could be a life changing opportunity to make money. I must also point out I was $20K down on the sae holdings a month ago. SO yes super risky. I will likely look at doing what I was going to do yesterday and what has been my normal stock strategy, sell calls for half the shares after a steep run up. Probably will sell some 105/110/100 calls to cover up half the remaining shares. I tired to yesterday when UVIX was touching $100, but pull back dashed my plan in the last 4 minutes of the day. And yes these positions are fucking risky. But this is the risky account. Hell it's hard to sell shit that keeps putting up 4 and 5 digit wins. My hedge both on the way up and way down has been covered calls. That's how I grew the account to begin with trading a very volatile PLTR mostly. So risk is what it is. Yesterday was $24K down to $20K up. If for even a second I thought that Trump would be the one to reach out to China I would be a LOT more worried. But I think right now we are likely to see an ego standoff between Trump and Xi.... over who makes the fucking phone call... And do you see the architect of this amazing change for the world economy making that call? DO you? I put up a post a few pages back, that said it was going to take perhaps as much as a 10,000 points down for Trump to change course. Sadly I still believe this. The fake rally showed me there is still way too much hope. And I am big on betting against folks that believe stuff that is not true and invest emotionally because of that. I am going short only because Trump has been predictably stupid. Just trying to cash in betting against a really badly managed company right now.
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