I don't think focusing on the nuances of employment reporting hoping for pressure on the fed is much but wishful thinking. It's the same in every administration. Or is the hope that the incoming administration will start reporting big drops in employment? In the name of greater accuracy and transparency?
The big dog in the room is inflation right now, and tariffs will make prices rise. And once prices rise? They tend to stay very sticky even if the tariff is temporary. Inflation is where the focus should be. At least for now. Most every person within the administration when asked about prices going up, has mentioned temporary pain. When the administration is telling us on the Sunday morning shows that yes, tariffs are going to cause inflation at least temporarily, I believe them.
Basically the Fed has a dual mandate for controlling inflation without destroying employment. Or helping employment at the cost of inflation. Both move as a result of momentum. Momentum which causes the fed to forecast where that momentum is going. BUT right now, the Fed is not driving the Bus! Inflation and additional bloating of gov't debt that is unavoidable. Is where the bond market if focused, and that is ultimately where rates get set. Best bet right now for lower rates is stock market collapse. Then WTF does that do?
I can imagine how frustrating it is to have rates settling in as such a high point, even if temporary, for you guys in the industry. High inflation means, higher rates, which means stock valuations are too fucking lofty, which means stock market retreat. All in varying levels of degrees in the short term (3-6 months). We are in a fragile place IMHO. So you may get that rate cut you are wanting, but at a price that is also largely distasteful...