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horn4life

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Everything posted by horn4life

  1. Man I feel sorry for Dallas fans. You guys have to suffer through Jerry Jones endless hope destroying seasons, and now your best owner gave away control and Luka is gone. At least Cuban disavowed endorsing the trade. But that's what happens when you give up control. You become along for the ride.
  2. Well looking at the holding sell off in pre-market, looks like the market may shrug the tariffs off as temporary? Or assumption is they will not stay in place? I would think there would need to be a carve out for US Automakers. Otherwise you may be adding as much as $3000 to a GM or Ford, in the supply chain. Good for Tesla I guess to offset EV credits, but unsustainable for the US manufacturers. So I do not see the tariffs as anything but posturing. But I also do not see how politically Trump cannot keep at least some inflationary tariffs in place politically. HERE IS MY QUESTION - What, if any, stickiness will there be to prices "temporarily" inflated from tariffs? two year +.04, ten year -.03, thirty year -.05
  3. Hey Gil... Wanna bang? woulda been a lot cooler...
  4. Premarket down just over 500 points on both Nasdaq and Dow in the earliest trades tomorrow. What a fucking waste...
  5. I don't think focusing on the nuances of employment reporting hoping for pressure on the fed is much but wishful thinking. It's the same in every administration. Or is the hope that the incoming administration will start reporting big drops in employment? In the name of greater accuracy and transparency? The big dog in the room is inflation right now, and tariffs will make prices rise. And once prices rise? They tend to stay very sticky even if the tariff is temporary. Inflation is where the focus should be. At least for now. Most every person within the administration when asked about prices going up, has mentioned temporary pain. When the administration is telling us on the Sunday morning shows that yes, tariffs are going to cause inflation at least temporarily, I believe them. Basically the Fed has a dual mandate for controlling inflation without destroying employment. Or helping employment at the cost of inflation. Both move as a result of momentum. Momentum which causes the fed to forecast where that momentum is going. BUT right now, the Fed is not driving the Bus! Inflation and additional bloating of gov't debt that is unavoidable. Is where the bond market if focused, and that is ultimately where rates get set. Best bet right now for lower rates is stock market collapse. Then WTF does that do? I can imagine how frustrating it is to have rates settling in as such a high point, even if temporary, for you guys in the industry. High inflation means, higher rates, which means stock valuations are too fucking lofty, which means stock market retreat. All in varying levels of degrees in the short term (3-6 months). We are in a fragile place IMHO. So you may get that rate cut you are wanting, but at a price that is also largely distasteful...
  6. Rubbed out? Did something happen to South Austin's Mom?
  7. fuck- missed a tweet! Now the tariffs are not Feb 1st, but Feb 4th. Unless there is a tweet to the contrary?
  8. I believe the administration. We are in for some short term pain. I bet Bessent got drunk as fuck Friday evening.
  9. About the only thing mudbugs are good for now... Is staging dick pics for boils in April? 😉
  10. All I was trying to do was get clean to PLTR earnings Monday after hours...
  11. Well it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the tariffs next week? 10% swing in the VIX since confirmed to the upside.
  12. I thought the price was cash? Or that is why I end up waiting in line.
  13. THIS! My daughter loves her job with her current company, she's an Pharmacist and has risen rapidly in the last couple years. She has twice been hired for positions they manipulated to get her into. It's a big hospital network in Houston, and she was also chosen to become a trainer for Epic software. Epic is I think the biggest provider of medical software in the nation. She was helping them "fix" the glitches in their system once she learned it. I told her to apply for another job that I saw listed. That she was (as always) not fully qualified on paper. But a big part of the job was "becoming certified" in Epic within 6 month of hire. She was short on the years experience aspect (as she has been for every job). IF you are ever thinking of changing to a new position within your current company, I think it's fucking stupid now to see what you might be worth elsewhere at that point. IMHO.
  14. The odds are very high that your current employer started their business by directly competing against a former employer. Would your current employer hesitate to fire you to preserve their own position? All that matters is what will ultimately help you succeed in your new position. Good advice above in that while I am immediately thinking about poaching, I am likely a lot more come into the new company and get a lay of the land first. While you have recruited and trained some great people, you also might hurt your development of relationships among your new team if your started off by bringing in your own folks. It usually creates more animosity and uncertainty among your new employees. In other words, poaching too soon is almost always a net negative from both sides of the ledger. Early poaches could raise the ire of you old employer. And the oldest trick in the book is just to fils suit against you and let you bleed out in a case that years from now you will likely most certainly win. So why take the risk early? Now if you are talking about salespeople that can bring their accounts with them? Then my only concern would be at what level might my new employer help me fend off lawsuits aimed at your for poaching? Your job is to make you new employer more money. The best way would be to make the current team more productive, while looking ahead for potential good fits for the former co-workers you might covet now. I would think it will take you a quarter in your new position to really determine the strengths and weaknesses within your new oversight role. Do the eval, see where you might improve with some poaching, and go to work.
  15. Well... ShallowSurly is probably more accurate. Sadly probably in more than one way! (ouch)
  16. I'm sure I knew her. I was friends with the bar manager (?) Rosie, when I was putting my wife through Pharmacy school. I joked that she was my "surrogate wife" as I went their to grab a meal and a drink, and was definitely a regular. Rosie translated all the recipes from English to Spanish for the chefs. The on recipe I really wish I had was their Vegetarian Chili Recipe... That shit was amazing. My wife always loved the Hippie Chick. Was great place for our young kids into young adulthood. RIP Shady Grove and Mike.
  17. Well in two years he could be in a very good position to be about to cash a very big check. Until then, work hard, take advantage of the opportunity, and laugh your ass off every shitty weather day in Ohio! Welcome to civilization young man! Now... BECOME a hero!
  18. First- I assume everyone expects the Fed to stand pat and do nothing? Second - I was listening to the guy that runs/founded compass on either bloomberg or CNBC and her had some interesting comments I latched onto. He was talking about Miami and Austin being tougher markets because we led the upswing. He said that 40% of the listings in Austin had taken a price reduction. Which I thought was an interesting sign of sale price expectations bumping up against reality. MMI was down to 220 with national average of 7.02% mortgage same as last report.
  19. Let's be honest, DeepSurly actually sounds pretty good...
  20. NDVA up about 2.5% after hours.
  21. The fact it comes about a week after tik tok's banning makes the timing suspect, at least to me. IF it's true... said the guy repeating the rumor a repeated liar just told them. There simply have not been very many true innovations that have come out of China that were not simply using US technology. But what better way to slow US investment in AI down than to make you question the value of your investment and more importantly your investments planned in the near term. Disruption is likely the point. if the cost is $100 million and not $5.6 as reported? Does the market move like it has today? No fucking way. But even at a big price tag the disruption might be the whole point.
  22. Hell even if China burned $200 million on Deepseek, it was worth it. Fucked with US markets, NVDA scrubbed nearly $600 billion in value. I wonder how many short plays might have been orchestrated by China on this? You could pay for $200 million pretty quickly that way. But shows market is skittish on valuations in AI.
  23. Apparently one of the "bonuses" of Deepseek is giving up all your gmails...
  24. From CNBC a sec ago -New home sales up to 698K vs 671K estimate. New home sales based on signed contracts during the month. Median sale price up 2.1% year over year, along with the obvious high interest rates. Incentives and mortgage buydowns. Said most increases in NE and West. I will be curious how the MMI looks. Builders and lenders are two different animals, though clearly symbiotic in nature. I spoke way back about "buyer capitulation" on interest rates, and what might show that would be a rising MMI even against the higher rate? But if new homes are still rising year over year, and that translates to the larger market, prices are going up. If that is the case, then you make up that point you are trying to save in appreciation fairly rapidly.
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