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horn4life

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Posts posted by horn4life

  1. On a small kid. I am cajoling you as long as possible.  Wanting them to be a big girl or boy.  But ultimately I will shove that pill down their throats.  But that was Dad, not Grandad.  But I don't give a fuck, you are going to take this medicine.  

    From a psychological warfare perspective: If they are old enough to read ,I would tell them there is another way, but you are not going to like it... Open up a description of an enema on my phone and have them read it.  While I started dragging in a garden hose from outside.... for visual effect.  That pill should seem a better methodology to a smart kid. 😉

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  2. Dude is both fast and fucking fearless.  He's gonna get a check just to return balls.  I would love like hell for him to return, but unless he has a girlfriend at Texas, he's going to be cashing an NFL check next season. 

    I could not find his fumble count this year easily.  But for the crazy ass risks he was taking punt returning?  I was surprised he was not getting blown up and turning the ball over more regularly. He's going to be a good draft for somebody.  He was honestly my favorite transfer this year.

     

     

  3. All I can say is that I missed out on how bad covid was going to be handled in the U.S.  And I missed a huge opportunity to profit.  We are going to get a shit inflation AND employment numbers the middle of March.  I guess I could "Lay back and enjoy it," as Clayton Williams once said.  But this time I am going to try to profit from it... or I could bet on Stupid?

     

  4. On 2/28/2025 at 9:01 AM, hpslugga said:

    That’s precisely because they are not interested in governing. They’re not interested in creating a robust economy. They’re only interested in doing favors for their donors.

    In the late 1970’s, the idea of Trickle Down was seen sort of as a taboo. That’s why GHWB called it “voodoo.” The thing is, he was right to call it that.

    The entire premise of it was built on that stupid Laffer curve, which postulates “when tax rates are low, revenues will be low because the government doesn’t generate enough money. When tax rates are high, revenues will be low because people are less motivated to work or invest.”

    Totally ignoring the complete arbitrary nature of what it is for tax rates to be “high” or “low,” or how high they have to be to disincentivized to work/invest, or how tax rates are rarely if ever applied uniformly, does anyone not notice that the GOP always admits that this stuff is bullshit?

    Oh sure they don’t say it’s bullshit literally, but they say it in their actions. They say it when they pass tax cuts to the wealthiest people and then sweeping budget cuts. Well yeah, because they’re not really interested in finding this so-called “sweet spot” on the curve because what that does is lower required revenues while also lowering taxes.

    I’m sure 3-point percentages in the NBA would increase dramatically if they make the no-charge circle the new 3-point arch and if they lower the basket to 7’ instead of 10. That’s not gonna compel me to call those guys “great three point shooters,” though. 

    Anyways the whole nominal point of the Laffer curve was to assume expenditures as a given (relative at least) constant and finding the most effective way to raise revenues to pay for them. The curve was never meant to be a mechanism to shift the goalposts. So again, why do they shift the goalposts to make it look like trickle down works? Because they know it’s bullshit. And you’re never going to see them make economic progress while they worship bullshit.

    70 years ago trickle down was actually a decent stimulus concept. But that was only because of the limitations of investing outside the united states.  Now a tax cut for anyone other than the middle class is a waste of money and a false stimulus.  In that if something does not produce more than it costs, by definition.  The bottom line is the tax cuts the GOP promises will create more tax revenue than they costs is simply a lie.  They simply do nothing more than shift tax burden to lower classes, and concentrate more wealth into fewer and fewer hands over time.  

    Did I love the cost of the borrowing that Biden did? Nope.  But I also cannot ignore the fact that funding of infrastructure has been ignored by the GOP consistently, in favor of tax cuts that disproportionately help those that need the least assistance financially. Republican math simply has not added up in a very, very long time.

    Again I wish that just once, just one time, a Republican could hand off a economy to a Dem that was not a clusterfuck of some sort.  But hey, cut taxes and all will be cured!  It will be even worse with the most cowardly people I have ever seen sitting in elected offices with (R) by their names.  Completely and totally gutless wonders from top to bottom.  And that's exactly how democracies die...

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  5. 8 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

    1740173797928?e=1743638400&v=beta&t=KfMuEvUlgN_HSYRTXRE9x_Yk-DcwgQOHT6MzxKB6280

    I always like to point out to Gen Xers, do you know that weed vape pin you just took a hit off is a felony?  Gen Z kids mostly have no idea that that vape pen is the same as carrying a 5 pound sack of weed.  

    But I am simply saying that folks are pulling back at lunch and dinner from my observations, and at the liquor store.  Gen z not drinking sure as shit isn't what made the store slow last night.  

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  6. 3 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

    PLTR hurts to look at

    Pissed I didn't stop out at least a small chunk at $118, when I had my finger over the stop.. DUMBASS!!!! 

    1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


    are you asking what strategy will yield the most profit if the equity markets decline across the board? 

    Yes, but specifically more focused strategies.  I was going to buy March 7, $28 UVIX calls for like $2.20ish about 1pm but, thought too much of the same bet... DUMBASS! Would have been about a 65% win, in two hours.  

    What I should have done is just flip my PLTR position, but WAAAAY too much risk betting that much all to the downside.

    Looking for oddball stuff I may not be aware of honestly?

     

    17 minutes ago, Superhero said:

    Still up 12% in the past month and 175% in the past 6 months.

    People probably bought thinking Peter Thiel ducking the donald's dick would bring in more business.

    I guess it's not going to work out.

     

    My thought was always that PLTR's best attribute was their secure environment performance would be a plus eventually in the commercial space.  They are honestly the only AI company actually booking real scale of profit in AI. But the fucking valuations are psychotic. (See my not stopping out higher post above!!!!). I rode it up and got smoked on the way down once before, so wary.  

    I will come back in the same way I have done in the past at some point. Mostly with covered calls. Then reselling calls at the peak on the same shares.  Stock is mercurial, but selling calls high, and buying in the money calls on the downs works when the momentum swings back to PLTR.  I think they are well positioned to get more US contracts.  But silliness like pretending Pete Hegseth is cutting 8% of military spending, started the big pull back.  I actually sort of see parallels between PLTR and the US stock market right now.  A lot of hope, high valuations. and a hiccup from a close look at the shitter.  

    4 hours ago, Parliament said:

    WHAT THE FUCK IS HAPPENING

    US Economy the Game!

  7. I went to Total Wine and more.  Seemed super slow.  So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure.  A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow."  But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. 

    Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion.  

  8. Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late.  But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception.

    Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example.  

    But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated.  I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out.  If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly.  I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting.  Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?  

     

  9. I's basically a SoCo Bro fro SXSW.  Too much good shit available within walking distance. And I'll be honest giving my money to Continental Club and C-Boys is probably one of the best ways I feel I can support Austin music for the rest of the year beyond SXSW.  I could say the same about Hotel Vegas, Mohawk and a slew of others.  But Steve has been so supporting shit for so long I give him the nod for longevity and surviving.

    If you like crawfish, and like FREE crawfish, C-Boys on Tues at Louisiana Lafayette is how we usually kick off south by.  I will usually walk down and take photos of the South buy San Jose sign, The blackboard at Continental and C-boys to get a better idea of who is actually supposed to play when.  

    Thurs and Sunday at C-boys will be my crowd avoidance methodology this year.  But thurs SoCo Stomp has C.J Chenier and the Red hot Louisiana band at 6:15 and I have been wanting to see them for a while and keep missing them.  The West Texas Exiles outdoors along with Ian Moore, and Dale Watson rounding out the outdoor stage.  With indoors Scrappy and Beaver Nelson band reunion early, looks like my best bet for the day.

    Actually Sunday at C-boys also looks darn good to me. We really like the Band Restos, and they start at 1 pm, with Pelvis Wrestley inside (i have to take a glance just for the name), and Molecular Steve, who I have been trying to also see for a while indoors, and having Barfield, Uncle Lucious and Shiny Ribs closing outdoors doesn't seem like it would suck!  I'll be long gone by Shiny ribs

    SXSJ always has some folks that interest me, but they haven't been as leading edge of late as they once were. And I prefer mixed drinkss to beer so theres that...

     

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  10. So I got stopped out of my PLTR, after shedding a sizable chunk of profits with looser than normal stops.  My desire to avoid cap gains and FOMO, definitely cost me some profit with the looser stops.  But now I am going to go against the market for a little while,  at least.

    I see nothing but bad news the next month.  Inflation will creep up unless basic economic principles on tariffs no longer apply, and unemployment is going to creep up.  (Though firing all the Fed probationary workers on the day of Unemployment reporting was a good move to perhaps keep some of those numbers from appearing at all.  IF those employees find jobs within a month.  So there is obvious concern from the WH on how the layoffs will end up being counted.  

    Anyhow - What do you think is the best strategy to profit from a declining market? 

     

     

     

  11. 10 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

    I’d be interested to hear long time agents and mortgage people to comment on the following scenario. 

    Assume the economy goes into a recession in the next six months, with significant job losses. Not as bad as 2002 but close. Also assume Fed rates drop from 4.3 percent to 3 percent in six months, leading to significantly lower mortgage rates. 

    What happens to home prices starting at the beginning of the job losses for the next 24 months? Up? Down? A lot? A little?
     

    Lower rates would unlock mobility for those who are "trapped" in existing low rates they do not want to part with.  This would bring some additional supply into the existing home market.  Despite overall supply being low.  However if there are a large amount of layoffs that means that consumer confidence will fall or worse on the job losses and dire economic outlook.  Low consumer confidence means a pullback from larger purchases of all types.  

    Prices will recede. As lower prices combined with lower interest rates will be necessary to incentivize buyers to take the plunge on a purchase that recently they have seen depreciate rather than appreciate of late.

  12. 43 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

    You shook on the deal.  What's your word worth to you?   Any reasonable agent knows that you can 100% not pay him a dime and get away with it, but, what's your word worth to you?

    Now, do the math when the commission is $6,000 instead of $50,000.  Do you expect the same level of service?  

    Who gives the better blowjob...the hooker that you meet at the bar at The Bellagio that charges $500, or the one that you pick up on the corner in the ghetto that charges $20? 

    Well from an experience standpoint... you have to go with the $20 service provider. 

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  13. 57 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

    Wondering what you guys would do in this situation:

    A few years ago I enlisted an agent to rent out my house. He found my current tenant. The first time I raised the rent, the tenant proactively offered to buy my house (at a low-ball price). We declined and just extended the lease. Last year, I told him I am extending lease for the final time and would sell the house afterwards; he made no indication of interest to buy. 

    Recently I talked to the agent to ask about selling the house. We shook hands on him putting it on the market this summer when the lease ends. He said he would also ask the tenant if hes interested (or if he needs help looking for a property).  

    ….well now the tenant just got back to me directly, saying he wants to buy the house directly (at a very fair price). and suggested the agent doesnt need to be involved to save cost. 

    The standard procedure in this market is 3.6% agents fee payable by the buyer. Its completely true that agent is not doing anything here - no listing, hosting, etc. But I feel obligated to him out of a sense of ethics.

    I’m thinking if we skip him out of the process, I buy the guy an Omega watch or something as a ‘serious’ business gift? Is that fair? 

     

    Good lesson on always approach the existing tenant, before you list with a realtor.  Or exclude the existing tenant in the contract.  But you don't have a signed contract.

    I might write a listing contract with the realtor with an exclusion for the tenant buyer. At a price that would justify the additional costs for the agent?  But more likely I would likely tell the agent here's the deal. Last time I talked to the tenant, he did not seem interested.  But my perception was mistaken, and he made an offer that I view as very reasonable.  Then see what the agent says?  Right now he hasn't done anything, and you have not signed a contract.  Lots of folks would say fuck off, but I, like you have some moral sense when I shake somebody's hand.  So I would likely just talk to the agent.  How that conversation goes would guide me, in all likelihood.

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  14. 1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

    Interesting experience today doing a showing.

    Yesterday I text the listing agent asking for a 9 AM appointment.    I get the confirmation quickly.

     

    This morning at 8:15 or so, I get a text from the listing agent: 

     

    I will have the home ready for your 9 AM showing.  I will have the home at 70 degrees, all the lights will be turned on, and candles will be lit around the home.  When the showing is complete, just text me and I will come over and secure everything.  The doors will be unlocked by 8:45 so you can walk your client through the front door without fooling with a lockbox

     

    Fucking listing agent doing his job to present his listing in the best possible light.   Mad respect for this guy. 

     

     

     

    And for $5 they could have closed the fucking deal! 

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  15. 26 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Some gain, the inheritance was about 18 months ago.  We've just been giving the whole thing the side eye since then.  It's probably almost half cash, so the downside risk wasn't as bad as it could have been (and the gains were obviously capped by those cash holdings as well).

    If you want to hold, definitely put some stops on all of them.  To cut losses is if moves that way.  I'm probably selling anything I don't love, and going to short term T-bills or cash if I wanted to buy on a dip.

  16. 7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    I finally got a chance to review a small inheritance my wife received from her mother.  It's a mix of a few stocks, a couple of mutual funds, and some cash.  We would like to be pretty conservative at this point, for a variety of reasons, so I'm wondering if there is any consensus about whether we should hang on to any of these holdings:

    MSFT (biggest holding, seems pretty stagnant for over a year)

    ABBV

    PG

    ABT

    XOM (pretty stagnant)

    WMT (nice run but took a dump today)

    BAC

    I can see keeping WMT, it's not a big % of the holdings and despite today's hit would seem more recession proof than most.  The others I can do without, but if there are any compelling reasons to hold on to any of them I'm all ears.  Thoughts?

    Honestly, i would sell i all.  no cap gain since inherited at current value.  then sit on the cash and wait and see what happens in the next 6-12 weeks. if market goes south you can come back in with more upside.  Right now investing is simply a part of US economy the game, and anyone who tells you with any confidence they know what is going to happen in the next 6-12 weeks is an abject liar.  

  17. Florida is on my radar because my Dad set some state records swimming for them years ago.  But now that we are in the SEC by primary interest with Florida's current strength is, that I do have multiple presentation choices to consider before kickoff October 5th, 2025.

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  18. 16 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

    Opening a bunch of bids Thursday that contractors are whining about steel tariffs on.  Let’s see if it’s real or not.  If real, we’re about to see things really escalate.

    I would be curious to know the numbers and how they fell in line with your expectations.  I honestly do not know how you could bid something really large with steel as a contract component that might span over several years.  I assume most of the bids have differing types of cost escalation clauses?

     

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