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horn4life

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Everything posted by horn4life

  1. Dude is both fast and fucking fearless. He's gonna get a check just to return balls. I would love like hell for him to return, but unless he has a girlfriend at Texas, he's going to be cashing an NFL check next season. I could not find his fumble count this year easily. But for the crazy ass risks he was taking punt returning? I was surprised he was not getting blown up and turning the ball over more regularly. He's going to be a good draft for somebody. He was honestly my favorite transfer this year.
  2. All I can say is that I missed out on how bad covid was going to be handled in the U.S. And I missed a huge opportunity to profit. We are going to get a shit inflation AND employment numbers the middle of March. I guess I could "Lay back and enjoy it," as Clayton Williams once said. But this time I am going to try to profit from it... or I could bet on Stupid?
  3. 70 years ago trickle down was actually a decent stimulus concept. But that was only because of the limitations of investing outside the united states. Now a tax cut for anyone other than the middle class is a waste of money and a false stimulus. In that if something does not produce more than it costs, by definition. The bottom line is the tax cuts the GOP promises will create more tax revenue than they costs is simply a lie. They simply do nothing more than shift tax burden to lower classes, and concentrate more wealth into fewer and fewer hands over time. Did I love the cost of the borrowing that Biden did? Nope. But I also cannot ignore the fact that funding of infrastructure has been ignored by the GOP consistently, in favor of tax cuts that disproportionately help those that need the least assistance financially. Republican math simply has not added up in a very, very long time. Again I wish that just once, just one time, a Republican could hand off a economy to a Dem that was not a clusterfuck of some sort. But hey, cut taxes and all will be cured! It will be even worse with the most cowardly people I have ever seen sitting in elected offices with (R) by their names. Completely and totally gutless wonders from top to bottom. And that's exactly how democracies die...
  4. About to run out, but new economic numbers show income up! ... but consumer pending down. That's sort of a book end of actual data to my anecdotal observations. As well as consumer sentiment polling. A single data point, does not a trend make. You would think if wages were climbing spending would also go up on your Eco 101 graph.
  5. The Trump economy he inherited the first go round was unbelievably strong, especially in job production. Obama inherited the biggest mess any President inherited in our lifettime. The GOP let the economy flounder, because they did not want to pass legislation that would fix the mess the GOP created. Instead, they did a bandaid, bill, to have the first thing Obama had to do was pass like a $600 billion dollar bill to stabilize and start rebuilding the economy. Just 8 years earlier George W. Bush inherited an economy that was procuding a surplus. Rather than allow the surplus to hit the books Bush and the GOP, decided paying down the debt was a bad idea. Trump inherits strong economy. GOP passes massive debt bill, disingenuously sunsetting ONLY the individual tax cuts, and making permanent the corporate tax cuts. This allowed the GOP to like about their real intentions of blowing a massive, massive hole int he deficit, with a cutoff that they never wanted to happen. But they did not want the American people to know the devastating long term costs of the legislation. But when you create massive deficits for tax cuts, without trying to invest wisely in the economy... you end up with the GOP handing off a fiscal mess to the Dem. Just once in my life I would like to see a GOP President that had control of congress for at least 2 years of their term, hand off an economy stronger than the one they inherited. Despite the eternal bluster to the contrary, GOP Presidencies have left more mess than progress at the end of their terms. I expect a Cabinet full of the least qualified yes men we have ever seen will perform worst than past GOP presidencies. So I am betting huge against the market this time. Not going to miss an opportunity to profit from a combination of GOP delusion on economics, combined with the least competent cabinet ever assembled. I hate that I view the US as a poorly run company.
  6. I always like to point out to Gen Xers, do you know that weed vape pin you just took a hit off is a felony? Gen Z kids mostly have no idea that that vape pen is the same as carrying a 5 pound sack of weed. But I am simply saying that folks are pulling back at lunch and dinner from my observations, and at the liquor store. Gen z not drinking sure as shit isn't what made the store slow last night.
  7. Pissed I didn't stop out at least a small chunk at $118, when I had my finger over the stop.. DUMBASS!!!! Yes, but specifically more focused strategies. I was going to buy March 7, $28 UVIX calls for like $2.20ish about 1pm but, thought too much of the same bet... DUMBASS! Would have been about a 65% win, in two hours. What I should have done is just flip my PLTR position, but WAAAAY too much risk betting that much all to the downside. Looking for oddball stuff I may not be aware of honestly? My thought was always that PLTR's best attribute was their secure environment performance would be a plus eventually in the commercial space. They are honestly the only AI company actually booking real scale of profit in AI. But the fucking valuations are psychotic. (See my not stopping out higher post above!!!!). I rode it up and got smoked on the way down once before, so wary. I will come back in the same way I have done in the past at some point. Mostly with covered calls. Then reselling calls at the peak on the same shares. Stock is mercurial, but selling calls high, and buying in the money calls on the downs works when the momentum swings back to PLTR. I think they are well positioned to get more US contracts. But silliness like pretending Pete Hegseth is cutting 8% of military spending, started the big pull back. I actually sort of see parallels between PLTR and the US stock market right now. A lot of hope, high valuations. and a hiccup from a close look at the shitter. US Economy the Game!
  8. I went to Total Wine and more. Seemed super slow. So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure. A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow." But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion.
  9. Oh I knew the term, I just didn't want to use it... Sort of like saying Voldemort...
  10. Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late. But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception. Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example. But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated. I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out. If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly. I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting. Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation?
  11. Well down to $3.03... right at a dime decline a day so far. But not stopped out yet...
  12. horn4life

    SXSW 2025

    I's basically a SoCo Bro fro SXSW. Too much good shit available within walking distance. And I'll be honest giving my money to Continental Club and C-Boys is probably one of the best ways I feel I can support Austin music for the rest of the year beyond SXSW. I could say the same about Hotel Vegas, Mohawk and a slew of others. But Steve has been so supporting shit for so long I give him the nod for longevity and surviving. If you like crawfish, and like FREE crawfish, C-Boys on Tues at Louisiana Lafayette is how we usually kick off south by. I will usually walk down and take photos of the South buy San Jose sign, The blackboard at Continental and C-boys to get a better idea of who is actually supposed to play when. Thurs and Sunday at C-boys will be my crowd avoidance methodology this year. But thurs SoCo Stomp has C.J Chenier and the Red hot Louisiana band at 6:15 and I have been wanting to see them for a while and keep missing them. The West Texas Exiles outdoors along with Ian Moore, and Dale Watson rounding out the outdoor stage. With indoors Scrappy and Beaver Nelson band reunion early, looks like my best bet for the day. Actually Sunday at C-boys also looks darn good to me. We really like the Band Restos, and they start at 1 pm, with Pelvis Wrestley inside (i have to take a glance just for the name), and Molecular Steve, who I have been trying to also see for a while indoors, and having Barfield, Uncle Lucious and Shiny Ribs closing outdoors doesn't seem like it would suck! I'll be long gone by Shiny ribs SXSJ always has some folks that interest me, but they haven't been as leading edge of late as they once were. And I prefer mixed drinkss to beer so theres that...
  13. I think a buddy of mine, who was married at the time, might be looking back at some voicemail messages right now, and getting a good laugh. That being said, there are a lot of nut jobs out there. And if they are stalking get a restraining order. I'm sure she already carries a gun.
  14. So I got stopped out of my PLTR, after shedding a sizable chunk of profits with looser than normal stops. My desire to avoid cap gains and FOMO, definitely cost me some profit with the looser stops. But now I am going to go against the market for a little while, at least. I see nothing but bad news the next month. Inflation will creep up unless basic economic principles on tariffs no longer apply, and unemployment is going to creep up. (Though firing all the Fed probationary workers on the day of Unemployment reporting was a good move to perhaps keep some of those numbers from appearing at all. IF those employees find jobs within a month. So there is obvious concern from the WH on how the layoffs will end up being counted. Anyhow - What do you think is the best strategy to profit from a declining market?
  15. Lower rates would unlock mobility for those who are "trapped" in existing low rates they do not want to part with. This would bring some additional supply into the existing home market. Despite overall supply being low. However if there are a large amount of layoffs that means that consumer confidence will fall or worse on the job losses and dire economic outlook. Low consumer confidence means a pullback from larger purchases of all types. Prices will recede. As lower prices combined with lower interest rates will be necessary to incentivize buyers to take the plunge on a purchase that recently they have seen depreciate rather than appreciate of late.
  16. Well from an experience standpoint... you have to go with the $20 service provider.
  17. Good lesson on always approach the existing tenant, before you list with a realtor. Or exclude the existing tenant in the contract. But you don't have a signed contract. I might write a listing contract with the realtor with an exclusion for the tenant buyer. At a price that would justify the additional costs for the agent? But more likely I would likely tell the agent here's the deal. Last time I talked to the tenant, he did not seem interested. But my perception was mistaken, and he made an offer that I view as very reasonable. Then see what the agent says? Right now he hasn't done anything, and you have not signed a contract. Lots of folks would say fuck off, but I, like you have some moral sense when I shake somebody's hand. So I would likely just talk to the agent. How that conversation goes would guide me, in all likelihood.
  18. And for $5 they could have closed the fucking deal!
  19. If you want to hold, definitely put some stops on all of them. To cut losses is if moves that way. I'm probably selling anything I don't love, and going to short term T-bills or cash if I wanted to buy on a dip.
  20. Honestly, i would sell i all. no cap gain since inherited at current value. then sit on the cash and wait and see what happens in the next 6-12 weeks. if market goes south you can come back in with more upside. Right now investing is simply a part of US economy the game, and anyone who tells you with any confidence they know what is going to happen in the next 6-12 weeks is an abject liar.
  21. horn4life

    Florida Gators

    Florida is on my radar because my Dad set some state records swimming for them years ago. But now that we are in the SEC by primary interest with Florida's current strength is, that I do have multiple presentation choices to consider before kickoff October 5th, 2025.
  22. Update, my friend with the inherited house was smart in the end. She had somebody meet her $420K price, and I think closing is next week? But she would ahve taken the low offer if that was all she got. I think that it was just a low ball December offer. Which is what every offer submitted in December honestly almost should be.
  23. IBRX @ $3.65 just to see it fall... 😉
  24. I would be curious to know the numbers and how they fell in line with your expectations. I honestly do not know how you could bid something really large with steel as a contract component that might span over several years. I assume most of the bids have differing types of cost escalation clauses?
  25. But why a drop after "good news?" That's an inverse from my expectation.
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