
horn4life
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Looks like today is the day I go 6 figs on profit in 5 trading days betting against this predictable stupidity. Not bad for a stupid boomer talking ECO 101, on an account with a value of less than $200K. Of course it could all disappear as there is a reason why it says, "unrealized gains" on my screen. Mainly that fact the 401K has trimmed only around 3-4% as of yesterday off from the top, due to removing stock risk is sort of cool too. Eco 101 my friends, Eco 101... But yes a lot of my boomer friends are watching a lifetime of savings savaged.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I pray that you are not in a tent, next to motor home.... -
Well if you are 100% cash, sure. If you want to take a 20% down ride (maybe worse) hang on, do not sell. Just my advice, but right now ECO 101 Fucks!
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ECO 101 or ECO301 is fucking interesting as shit this year. You don't normally get to see moves that take months and years in a matter of days. But right now... everyone reading this thread NOT interested in very basic economics, should sell all their stocks and start learning. SOUNDS CRAZY doesn't it. But I feel very, very strongly I will be correct. Hell, I came back dinner and Bloomberg had the the front end of the Trump speech to the NRCC... like 20 minutes,Live and uninterrupted... As a person betting against the market I will sleep fantastically tonight.
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Originally UVIX was a hedge against my Palantir (PLTR) that I had ridden up. My "disciple" if there is any is buying almost every stock share the last two years as a covered call. UVIX I was just buying. I was down about $20K on my stake as PLTR started to pull back. Then I pushed most of those gains into UVIX. But it is so fucking risky I almost cannot tell you. But no. I am holding right now. But what I have tried to do on the volatile shit I have been trading the last 2 years. But as covered call. If stock spikes sell at least half with calls far enough out to both bank and maybe catch a pullback to have the shared close OTM. Then when it moves hard down, I buy in the money calls and some cheap OTM calls. But that's a longer term stock strategy. Right now I see the potential for insane parabolic VIX movement, (insert cloak room how dumb are we) and I am honestly concerned we may drift past recession. If I did NOT believe that I would not be holding. But for me the last great news was a falsehood, that our President might be reasonable... Think about that. That lie about reasonableness, made the market rise $2 trillion dollars. I texted everyone close to me, just sell everything now. Might as well save some of your gains. Or cut the losses that are just starting IMHO.
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I did not know what was going to happen with the administration. But I viewed the cabinet as one of the least qualified, and the President as being surrounded by folks who will only give praise. This is a bad combination for any company, even worse for a country. So I expected huge volatility. With volatility I felt like that was going to be an easy bet. Vix was 14 when I started accumulating UVIX at $36. I bought UVIX instead of moving into futures trading. I still think about the market rising before Trump's "reciprocal" tariff announcement... There is still a lot of hope... the fake new rally showed that. I guess ships will start accumulating off our ports now. As US companies deal with something costing 104% more than when it left port 3 weeks ago...
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Yep. jut got a flash of green on my UVIX and up 50% on my PLTR puts.
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O that fucking made me laugh! Why would China give in? Xi doesn't have to explain that he wiped out a big chunk of retirement savings? There is a SHIT TON of profit made by the US selling China goods. Enitre US businesses are based on doing almost only that. Should the disappear? For the greater good? If the administration thinks they can turn off the Chain Supply chain and not send the US to a deep recession, somebody has not done the math.
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Since this popped up while I was typiig -IF I agree with everything above. Do you think that not all of that could have been done without destroying consumer confidence and 401K's? There is a reason the markets did not price in any more than reciprocal tariffs! Because everyone was told that reciprocal tariffs was what was going to be announced last Wednesday. What was presented was not what was promised... along with clarity. But on point This is why I was asking the question about using all prior period of uncertainty models and extrapolating it into this market via the trading algorithms. i thought that might have been a big component of the flash run up on the "90 day suspension." But since I dared take a peek at PLTR on Monday AM thinking... maybe... I was fucking shocked to see it trading near $85 a few minutes ago. I was trading at $65 yesterday morning. I love the company long term, but WTF justified a 20% run up in two days on a stock with that multiple... unless blue skies ahead? SO I sold $90 puts for $6.60 expiring Friday. Short time frame so might just get washed out completely. But come on, 20% in 28 hours? I got to bet against that techie (that I love),
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Well I am down a small car one open. But was up a small SUV at one point yesterday and about to sell $20K in calls when the fake news came in yesterday. Those calls at UVIX April 17 $90 that were $19K are worth $5K today. Would have been nice to have had that sold call cushion. So a little bitter on the fake part, and the interesting timing. But That's a big swing in a day, that's for sure. Bigger for sure than I have ever fucked around with. And what I am doing right now is extremely risky. I thought about bailing, but think I have already taken the brunt of todays blow. But great for you guys!!! Glad ya'll are getting back some cash, even if I am bleeding. But I keep thinking about has driven this rally. A false report on pausing tariffs. And other countries calling the White House. A sprinkle of Iran nuclear talk fairy dust sprinkle as well. I know everyone is going to come to the table. But talking isn't a deal, any more than unrealized gains, are realized gains. I am afraid that this may be looked back at as a bounce that was a retail investor selling opportunity. Earnings forecasts will start to show a nibble of what's coming. Tariffs are inflationary. And if we don't have tariffs where is all the revenue going to come from? It's a catch 22. And eventually good old addition is going to tell the tale. My losses down to $20K, while typing and a phone call. So another day that feels like a month... I just have a hard time seeing a two day selloff being the only damage, even it it was trillions.
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Where on this chart are we? My guess is that rise up between Euphoria and Complacency? When CPI comes in just a little hotter than expected does market go up or down? What happens when the market sees unemployment numbers rising? Since my bet is volatility, all I know is a FALSE report sent the market soaring and a lot of those gains stuck. So was that a legitimate market rally? IS good news from a lie, the same as actual good news? That momentum based on a false report has carried though bigly into today's futures. Like rises, falls are not straight down, and as I said yesterday, there is clearly a shit ton of hope, (or market manipulation.) Regardless looks like a lot of folks are going risk off this morning. Half me wants to cash out. The other half says, a two day severe drop followed, by a minor drop buoyed by a false report, followed by "we're Back" optimism? That seems like a scary ass combination to bet on. Simply as we have not actually seen any of the tariff effects hit the market. BUT... I think the optimism is based on "Well folks are coming to the table to negotiate". which is honestly a good thing. But when you see the chart of "reciprocal tariffs" and look at that as a starting point of negotiation? Maybe that chart was complete and total bullshit. IF so negotiations should be pretty easy. IF the chart is actually what the administration wants, then good luck. As doesn't accurate math have to come into any negotiation about money at some point? Now had we started out this way, perhaps we wouldn't have needed a rally on false info yesterday. This would be both a thoughtful and reasonable way to try and team up against China. But... oh why even bother. I guess it's just hard for me to see reconfiguration of the entire trading system only resulting in two really bad days for the stock market,. Followed by all is well. Is it going to be that easy?
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Well thought I was gonna maybe have a red number today. But decay on the 50 and 65 covered calls swept in to make it a pretty darn fine day. This one was a nail biter for me. Up about at the close but on decay, and UVIX was green! by $0.15 - But now damnit with after hours down almost $4.60 so far after hours, looks like I may lose a couple grand on the day after all. Funny how a gain can turn to a loss while I am fucking typing. Right now I just really want to get to Friday and have all my ITM shit exercise and move to cash. So those are no longer "unrealized" profits.
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NOT responded - just a report that the proposed response would be 25% But it will be interesting to see if I lose the momentum about 1:30... we shall see. But now the calls I sold are degrading and helping offset some my UVIX dip.
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So here is something that I think is interesting. IS is different this time? Now clearly I have asserted that it is, from a causation perspective, completely different. I am also open to being completely fucking wrong and that is why I want the perspective of others. 1) In all selloffs there is unpredictability that fuels the sell offs. In all the recent sell offs, there is a lot of data backing up a bounce back up. But is this different? From an unpredictability standpoint? Really? I tend to think so because this reason was not a complete surprise, except in being woefully underpriced by the market. But do you think unpredictability is unpredictability and the cause is irrelevant? 2) Since all the modeling says a bounce back - do you think that is so firmly in the algorithms that is why you get such a big pop so fast on a slight upward movement? And how much of this past modeling is build into the minds of so many fund managers? Anyhow, just curious about you opinions? As its an argument I keep having with myself about whether the historical models of unpredictable sell offs apply in one that I viewed as predictable? If that makes sense?
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So now we are at the 'negotiate' point that we often have seen. But how do you negotiate when somebody who put up a reciprocal tariff presentation board like the Trump Whitehouse did? How do you get a factual place to negotiate, when one party is starting from a place where things simply do not add up. That's the negotiation side of the coin. So how do you negotiate with people whose math does not add up when you are talking about money? It's a difficult fucking task.
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But what that huge spike shows is that there is a shit ton of hope in the market still. A rumor. Regardless, you can see how much a little good news might send the market soaring, and send my UVIX unrealized profits into the shitter... I will be interested to see if the hope fades as I thought it might towards the end of the day. I also saw cinemark was a leader early today, and I thought about movie theaters as a winner in recessionary periods.
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And there went the selling opportunity... oops maybe not.. up 25K down 26 K up 2 down 8 I have no idea up or down.
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IF you sell in the next 2 minutes.🤪
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Bounce of hope happening now... but not going to go black. I think a little upwards and sideways off the bottom until about 1:30, then back down. Fucking UVIX options are too fucking expensive to pile more onto at the risk levels I currently have.
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I think there will be a bounce today. As there is still hope. The hope being this is as bad is it will get.... After hearing Peter Navarro tell me the Dow is going to 50,000. But I would bet every dime in my portfolio, and my house, that Navarro is not losing money because of this stupidity. In other words the important people at the Whitehouse do NOT have skin in the game when it comes to the stock market. I expect a fight back on hopes of a bottom today, that largely evaporates with a downward push into the close. If this is the case I may buy some UVIX options with my remaining 8% cash. I still hold that it's going at least another 3-5,000 points down before there is any real pressure on Trump to change course. Despite getting ridiculed for this statement as peing "political." After hearing Peter Navarro mansplain this AM, I think the bottom is at least a few thousand points lower. Of course I could be wrong, but I just do see what makes these numbers a bottom?
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I expect a green box for UVIX again. And a little closer to not imagining. followed by survivors guilt...
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Let's not forget the last time tariffs were involved heavily in a downward move on the markets Google Query: 1929 and tariffs. AI overview - In the midst of the 1929 stock market crash and the onset of the Great Depression, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, signed into law in June 1930, raised tariffs on imported goods by about 20%, aiming to protect US industries, but instead, it triggered a global trade war and deepened the economic downturn.
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So how were Thursday and Friday for your portfolio? Using the "I am not worrying about understanding stuff yourself" methodology?
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I always tape all the Sunday News shows. I encourage you to listen to the people speaking for the administration, Mark Wayne Mullin on Fox, Scott Bessent on NBC and Kevin Hassett on ABC this morning. Maybe it will calm you, in a way it did not me.
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Well tariffs are Economics 101. Now I will also say that targeted tariffs can be beneficial. The main reason is that they can be used to protect home country industries that NEED protection. Int he US American farmers would be top line, as they can be more easily undercut by cheap labor than probably any other area. And farming I think we could all agree is key to any countries security. Correct? You can pick the industries, related to defense, ship building, plane building, and the raw materials like steel etc. One that that is fantastic for America is that our country is so large there is access somewhere to at least some supply of what we might need. Smaller countries geographically face much greater challenges to access goods and raw materials. So geography and proximity to trade (because of transportations costs) are what create the marketplace. Think of some of the earliest trade routes and the spice trade as a good example. Trade has always been about one thing. Finding a product farther away at a price cheaper, adding in the transportation costs, and stuffing your pockets with the extra cash. Simple. Or even better. You have a market for a scarce product, you find the same of very similar product far away at a much cheaper price. Then you have a market, with a potentially greatly expanded profit margin. As well as potential additional profit from expanding your existing market with a larger cheaper supply. In the country with the cheaper supply they now have a new market and oversupply in their home country that is depressing margins, can be negated via this new market far away. Prices rise in the home country because a more valuable buyer has been discovered via trade. Tariffs are usually to preserve some sort of local supply chain. In other words they are defensive. They do not want the merchant importer with the supply from a land far away to wipe out the local suppliers with the new lower price from the country with oversupply. So they use a tariff to try to level the playing field. This will cause inflation for both sides of the trade IF retaliation occurs. We have had tariff on foriegn steel forever And that is the rub, for tariffs to perform as initially asserted, is to also assume no retaliation. And that is where is gets tricky. The only way we can get our trade level with the rest of the world is to have them consume exactly as much US product as we consume. It's impossible to finnd a perfect trade balance with each individual country, AND still be the richest consuming the most. And if you are the wealthiest and richest by far? You will always make a sucking noise as ravenous US consumption drives the US, and the World economies. Tariffs are a tool to raise what is seen as an artificially low price, and raise it. That is what it is designed to do, period. So by definition the price increase burden on the consumer. Now as will be pointed out, there is a choice to consume or not. Higher prices hurt consumption. And if price inflation or economic fears related to tariffs markedly decrease the US consumption that drives both the US and the world economies? That is a very, very bad thing, from an economic growth perspective. From my economic perspective; the only tariffs that are truly effective, are targeted tariffs that still leave room fozr potential trading partner profit on both sides. AS WELL protect a niche vital industry on the tariff demanding side. In other word a tariff, that still allows the trading to happen. Do tariffs generate dollars? Yes they do. Do they add an additional cost to trade beyond transportation costs? Of course. The argument ultimately becomes who is paying? How do prices not rise? Do both parties to the trade split the tariff costs and deduct them from their profits? Highly unlikely. Who makes the most profits? The supply side, or the distribution and sales side in the consuming country? If you assume companies want to make money, they will simply split keep their profit and pass the cost on to the consumer via price increase. And to maintain their existing profit margin raise the price beyond the cost of the tariff by that percentage of profit for the rest of the money they are putting at risk. So that is an extra inflationary pressure to profit from every dollar spent in a business. Correct? The usual and most expected outcome of tariffs is the response of another tariff. And there is simply no way this does anything other than raise prices to reduce consumption of the tariffed product. That price rise to reduce local demand is what tariffs are all about. But as I pointed out, the US consumer is the big dog, and that's where the tariff price absorption always has to go. Because ask any salesman. Without sales there is not profit. And if you can't sell at a profitable price point, you no longer have sales. I believe that many companies will try to absorb some of the tariff shock because they believe the tariffs to be temporary. But time will force this temporary measure of price shock absorption, into price increases. Which ECO 101 says will have a demand decrease related to the price increase. Did I say the US is the big dog of consumption? This is where the costs are ultimately absorbed by the consumer. Or not consumed at all...
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