horn4life
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Quinn "La Joya" Ewers - The Man The Myth The Mullet
horn4life replied to Coach pop a bitch's topic in Football
You know what's awesome? Quinn has the biggest stage in the world to show his worth. He is probably as healthy as he has been since the beginning of the season. So the opportunity for greatness is there... right fucking there... for the taking. I hope he goes out there and kicks ass, and then whatever his future is, it is bright. E I am excited for see him go out and kick some ass! As I think he is going to have a hell of a game! So while the most popular sport since the beginning of time is extolling on the superior virtues of the Texas backup QB, a great deal of the complaints against Ewers are honestly complaints about Sark. Specifically playing a less than 100% starter in some of the biggest games Texas has seen of late. I was critical of Sark here, but even though Ewers and every other kid on the team cashes a check, they are still just a bunch of young kids trying to win at a game. I personally hope that Quinn kicks ass so much that folks actually reevaluate his entire season. I personally have hated the 1st down deep ball scripted to stretch the field that simply are not high percentage. And 2nd and 10, isn't nearly as easy to convert as 2nd and 6. The move toward the running game will help in QB protection. And I think you will see those deep ball completions tomorrow. Right now I could give a shit if Ewers ends up in the NFL or Notre Dame. Either will allow him to play another year of football. While these kids cash checks, when they are upper class men they start thinking of the NFL, or am I about to play my last game. I personally hope that each and every Longhorn on the field kicks ass tomorrow. And then the stupidity of the last several pages will be a distant memory. Hook'em and now let's go kick some ass Ewers and company. -
The thing you have to like about Bell's interview is how many times he referred to we, in reference to the team. Seems pretty solid at this point, when he is regretting UnderArmour because he missed a recruiting opportunity! Hook'em Dia! Can't wait to have you officially become part of "we."
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1) Complete the remodel of Dad's house and sell that mofo. 2) Have another good year in the Stock Market whatever happens. 3) Keep paying off the cards every month. 4) Make a move on another property to remodel. 5) Take wife to NYC and make sure I spend at least 2 weeks fishing. _ I know not financial, but sanity allows for better finances!
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Nothing personal but I think when you hop in an buy the "newly redesigned model" with a whole lot of unproven shit on it... it's generally a mistake. As engineering meeting real life durability requirements usually takes a year or two to shake out. A few years in you let the first buyer take all the depreciation, and you have a better idea of the longer term reliability. I will likely consider a 4 Runner when I get rid of my truck. Right now need the bigger vehicle for towing, but eventually 4WD Toyota product is likely on the list. That will pair nicely with the wife's soon to be '22 Subaru Outback that my Dad is still driving. He bought out the back end of the lease and I spent about $5K on long term transferable warranty to 150K. It's easier to let him keep the car until I finish off the remodel of his house. But same rule, low mileage, couple year old car.
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The oligarch play is there for sure. But my real money is that PLTR has operated AI in the most secure environments in the world. My long term bet is that level of security will be more valuable to large and then small commercial customers over time. I did read that Thiel has a $5 billion Roth IRA. I still think that TSLA will have real difficulty holding onto the post election gains. Unless all of a sudden Tesla cars become the new MAGA dualies? Or national pass on Federal robocar standards?
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Today was so supposed to be peak Santa Claus Rally day. I can see a lot of panicky profit taking today adding downward pressure. I'm just trying to get to fucking Jan 1. I have a joke I tell to the young kids that are misbehaving, "Have you heard of Frosty the spanking Santa? I just like to see the confusion on their misbehaving faces. He may be paying the market a visit today. Looks like hedge is gonna hold and PLTR may not take the beat down I was thinking a few minutes in. I might actually have a good day?!?!?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I hear ya. But my thought is incentivizing investment in vehicles that have had good historical returns as potential future down payments for homes. Sort of like they have 529 plans for education. With the end game being a greater pool over time of actually qualified applicants. Of course then we turn our heads back to supply... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
The movement of corporations into single family housing the last few years certainly has had some affect on demand. I remember when folks were getting stupid high prices and saying, "How the fuck can an investor make money, when the gap between the potential rent for the house if $2400 and the note would be $4300? Unless your paper losses are offset by income someplace else? Who else but a corporation or extremely wealthy individual can repetitively invest in this manner, where the only seeming potential actual gain will take years to realize without massive continued appreciation? Deportations will not only kill lead times, but increase the costs and put additional squeeze on homebuilders. If I was a small to medium homebuilder looking forward, I would be scared shitless. As rates are not coming down markedly anytime soon. I could, of course, be wrong here, but it's hard to see the rays of light that are going to provide downward rate pressure at least in the near term. At the same time the supply side of the equation is the traditional mechanism to create downward pressure on pricing. So we NEED builders to produce more homes! But for the small and medium builders the risk/reward scenario is getting more, rather than less risky. Would you guys agree or disagree with this statement? Obviously you guys talk to builders all the time. Unfortunately I think the real estate business "herd" is going to be further thinned. In the strong markets there are a lot of hangers on, that are not really making a good living in the business, but still producing enough income to make participation worthwhile. Same with the marginal loan writers, appraisers, home inspectors, etc. The industry my be only sustainable for the top tier of performers in 2025. Mainly because emotionally buyers cling to a hope for a further rate reduction, that may not be around the corner. But when you look back at the chart on rates you see the post RE collapse period from say 1990 and 2002 rates were in excess of 7% and the market was sustainable. Largely because that higher rate have become mentally acceptable to buyers. I fervently hope that buyers capitulate and accept the higher for longer that appears to be the case on rates. Right now that's the best single hope I can point to in the marketplace. RE is a great business, but you need to always have a fairly large war chest to come out the other side when things go south as they always do at some point on the graph. The good news is, that on the backside of the downturns, the survivors usually really bank! ****** One law I wish congress would consider this year might be something like a 100% tax credit on any capital gains going back 2 years(?) if those profits were part of a downpayment for a first time buyer. Or come up with some other mechanism for younger first time buyers to create tax free investment wealth to help with down payments. There would need to be some limits on income, but right now the first time buyers have the toughest path to ownership. Anything that would help widen the base of potential buyers with adequate down payments would be good for the economy long term, good for families, and worth the cost the loss of cap gain revenue economically for the country IMHO. Right now the combination of higher prices and higher rates is suffocating for many potential buyers. -
I fell in love with the beat of "Punk Rock Loser" when I first heard it. Then found the lyrics hilarious. Trying to figure out where they would be playing in Austin? Too big for Antones and Continental I assume? Hotel Vegas?
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When I think of Cook I contrast him with a Micheal Taffe interview from last week? Taffe was simply explaining that if you don't work your hardest, don't do you best each and every moment of practice, there WILL be somebody that will push you out and take your place. THAT is exactly how we have gotten to the position we are in today. There is a reason Taffe went from walk on to starter. He approaches every hour of every day as if somebody is right behind him trying to snatch away what is most valuable to him. The most beautiful thing about Taffe's assessment of how to survive as a player at UT. You have to simply never, ever, ever let up. There is somebody as equally talented as you are waiting for their chance. We now have this level of competition at every position on our team. Think the quality of our depth even two years ago compared to today. IF you come to Texas and think you natural talent is going to be enough to be a starter here, you are sadly mistaken. But if you take your talent and work extremely hard, you may not only become a starter. But you will have elevated yourself to a place that you would never have reached with our culture of competition. As said above, it's a lesson that Cook should have taken to heart. Instead of starting at Texas, he's going to repeat the same cycle he had here at another school. I root for every kid, and hope that Johntay realizes going forward that talent is simply not enough. You have to really, really, really want it at Texas to be a starter!
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1) The divorce is a key factor. Simply in that most folks have great emotional difficulty dealing with major life changes of more than on; Baby, firing, job change, relocation, divorce, death are the biggies. So if divorce is truly imminent, figure that shit out first WITH AN ATTORNEY!!!! I have not read the divorce stuff, but the rule is still the same. 2) How is your overall health? Are you a weak and wimpy 57, or is there still some steel left in you to go forward? How are you truly from a health perspective? I would tell you to start taking a walk for your mental and physical health. You need some contemplative time to clear your head, a walk can do that and help you physically. OK now the tough love... 1) Did you expect your partner to work until he died at the office? Do you and your partner really not have an exit plan in place? For either of you? 2) You have assets, and you will walk away with a lot more cash in hand that probably 90% of the people "starting over" at this age. 3) If you and your wife are contemplating moving would not a "starting over" source of employment for you or both of you, a big part of that conversation? If not sure as shit should have been. As by definition you are moving away, selling the business and house were going to create a lot of cash. But enough for no future cash flow at 57? 4) I am a CPA, but have not practiced in decades as my job duties were estimating and project managemnt in the concrete construction business. 5) I am the sales guy.The company is really nothing more than some equipment, some receivables, and cash and a few relationships. If I were starting a company like mine, I wouldn't buy it...just grow it by hiring and making conections. Now the good news! 1) You actually already know what to do! (IMHO). IF you are selling and leaving the state then that's a choice that negates most of your options other than working for somebody else punching a clock. Could you ever punch a clock again? For somebody else? Not take off when you need to at the drop of a hat in a real emergency? Self employment is not easy, but I would find it impossible to work with real structure in a punch in punch out environment. 2) Sounds like you are just emotionally beaten down. In 4 and 5 above, you explain why YOU are the company! And because of that you can save yourself. The real estate market is down, and your business assets are not huge beyond the land. But you already have exactly what you would tell somebody else to do if they owned your business. You have connections in your business already, and likely you have some younger folks you have worked with that you could see forging an alliance with. Perhaps even a partnership over time? 3) Can you go sell more business? OR can you find somebody else to sell more business? Sales drive everything, and as you said you are the sales person, head estimator, and project manager. Find a younger project manager, and free yourself to sell! You also might try to find potential areas of higher profitability to fold into your existing business model? The easy stuff like warehouses is probably less margin simply because it's simpler and thus I assume has more competitors in this space? What about adding the metal pergolas for carports and backyards to your business (IF HIGH MARGIN)? There is safety in numbers! More smaller contracts offer more stability than one or two monster contracts where the stress is huge on the big jobs as well. 4) Is there a career that you can envision, that has the potential to be more satisfying than making the one your are in more successful? If so do the research and that might be your path. 5) I don't know how big your land is, but I might also look for a small up and coming company that could dove tail with your cement work space? Then you have another "salesperson" in that business. So in the example above I look for a metal pergola business to work alongside, where you could get easy pours without you doing anything but the same 24 x 24 slabs over and over with less stress and more margin potentially. Anyhow I feel your pain. Simply as my business largely became dormant when I lost my biggest account, and was more interested is coaching soccer and real estate, than selling promotional products. I still make some money on it, but not much. I would rather risk my cash on home remodels at this juncture. Simply as I like the challenge and actually seeing a finished product. BUT - I am also looking for cash flow and I have the basic bones of a business that I could reignite. I am going to pitch a kid I have helped out for a few years, that I hoped would be the first in his family to get a degree. He's abandoning that to make money, working as a bartender and diligently building a small detailing business on the side. The kid saves like crazy, and will eventually marry his high school sweetheart. I bought him a computer for college, and I think he is a natural salesperson. I am going to try to get him working for me on the promise of giving him control of the business and eventual ownership. Like your business, it's only worth really the receivables and contacts whioch are now minimal. And I don't NEED that income stream luckily. In your case find a way to sustain your business by finding a way to get a partner, ally, or company that needs your business for their business in a strategic partnership. If you can grow you business, and develop some strategic partners that help "sell" your product for you. That IMHO is your best path. IF you could grow your business some and bring in a new younger replacement partner, you can put a plan in place to exit when you are 67, with a multi-year buyout in place because the business survived and your grew it. The business will still be paying your kids in 40 years because you still own that land that your former partner rents from you now that your buyout is complete. Good luck!!!!! And STAY STRONG!!!!
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The primary reason the minimum wage should be higher, is so taxpayers do not permanently subsidize full time workers at low wage jobs.
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My concern level about Herbstriet, is about the same as the second to last piece of toilet paper I use to wipe my ass.
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To me the only certainty... at this point, is unpredictability.
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Haha- I still have them but in March. Biggest fuck up I have made was not selling a shit ton of calls when that fucker peaked last Thursday. I honestly was shocked it went up so much so fast. Even more surprised by a more than full retreat. I thought about SVXY yesterday actually. Been too busy getting ready to host 35 people so like a lot of folks, I am contributing to a low volume week in the markets.
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What I hope to see is Ewers healthy, and kicking ass! What I am afraid I will see? Ewers performing adequately, and us not stretching to a two score lead with a sluggish offense. I guess the biggest question for all of us, is will Sark stick with Ewers if his mobility clearly is a liability? I tend to think that Sark's leash will be a lot tighter in a dow or die game. I think that having head coaches truly care and support their players is what kids look for when choosing where to play. Along with stacks of cash these days. I actually expect Ewers to play well, and win the game. But in college football an immobile QB is a lot bigger liability than in pro football. Our defense won the last two games. Let's have our offense win this one... and early!
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Well I made a shit ton yesterday, and like a dumbass didn't have multiple trailing stops on the UVIX retreat. I was so pumped my hedge worked I forgot to hedge back much on it. I guess that's one dumb way to avoid cap gains... Argh. What a dumbass... When I say "everybody," I mean "most of the fund guys, bankers, analysts, you name it on TV Not that they all were not concerned about valuations, but bullishness along with the term "animal spirits" were most prevalent lately. Plenty of contrarians, but I am just saying that if talking heads were the big board you would not see much red. Buffet sitting on his pile of cash was one of the reasons I started pulling back my risk. But fuck, I can't start selling when I think PLTR still has some legs. I did sell some January calls since it had a big run up today. (something I should have done with UVIX yesterday dumbass). I have calls to replace the shares farther out, but I got most of these shares selling calls, and buying with covered calls. I still wonder about a government shutdown. When Speaker Johnson says, “I’ve got one more little detail to work out, but we should be having a vote here soon.” he said, adding, “We will not have a government shutdown.” I always wonder who it is he is talking to?
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On UVIX - DO NOT do what I did and buy a lot at once. It's going to pull back and provide a buying opportunity, as I imagine a last minute deal will happened to avert a shutdown. But I doubt it's going to pull more than half way back, so maybe a low 4's bottom?
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So Short TSLA when Elon is cast out?
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I can only pray that the Golden Domers... cry like Aggies at the end of this one...
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The amount of wealth created and the end of the year, with new instability. But until a couple days ago, it was nearly impossible to find anyone saying that the markets were going to retreat in 2025. Trailing Stops... and hedges my be your best friends the next couple months.
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PS - I lost money betting on NVDA at earnings not cashing out on the initial bump. I also lost money Buying TSLA 350 put before the election. Figuring his buyers were gonna dry up. But the surge from Trump and his clear ability to influence policy to his benefit were crazy to keep betting against. So licked my wounds and took my losses. TSLA is interesting to me. As I wonder what would happen if Elon like so many, falls out of favor and becomes... "an idiot." Then does TSLA plummet? No liberal buyers, and MAGA investors bailing? I really want to diversify but thats what 401K's are for. Instead I just moved the 401K to like 83% bonds Monday so hopefully those gains can be preserved. Hope you are right. I think PLTR is going to get a much larger chunk of our military budget especially if the DOGE boys have a say in influencing policy. Peter Thiel one of Trump's earliest backers should likely see favor. If you think personal favor might garner political and purse string influence.
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Had my best day ever yesterday. As I moved 1/3 of our risky account into UVIX, to hedge against the huge run up of my PLTR. Both managed to go up yesterday. I am just trying to get to January to not eat a big dick on short term gains, with a tax bill in 4 months. I'd rather get a year and 4 months use before paying the tax man. I bought PLTR based on my long term view that there will be added value, based upon it's secure environment work. I think commercial accounts will find that same level of protection attractive. The UVIX allows me to ride things out with PLTR. But we just got a look at the Trump Presidency. A house of Representatives that will ONLY pass bills without any Democratic help... for the first several failed bill passage attempts. What we are seeing now is simply a completely unforced error by the incoming administration. The fact they thought the Dems would simply roll over and give Trump what he wants... when he can't get his own party to pass it? Snapshot of the future. But you can at least see a degree of predictability in that particular aspect on unpredictability. What is going to roil the markets is when Trump's largely unqualified appointees are confirmed. The stability that we have grown accustomed to will be tugged at from every direction, and WTF could be more "uncertain" than that. I was down about 20% on my UVIX, and hate that I had to dip into margin to maintain all my PLTR stock and options. But I figured the downside insurance was worth the risk. When I hear that nearly evey pundit and investor is sure the trees will grow to the sky (because of FOMO) it's time to hedge. UVIX my friends... Risky as fuck. But in my case designed to protect some pretty large short term gains that I would rather hold onto. The self inficted wound of simply not allowing the debt ceiling to be extended with a short term deal to provide stability was incredibly fucking stupid. Especially coming on the back of Powell's speech. I expect more wise decision making going forward! And as I told my wife, "we might bake $70K on UVIX in the next couple months." I might need to change that to "by the inauguration."
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
You are correct- that was part of my accidental first post. My statement is the exact opposite of what increased demand for Treasuries would do. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
oops hit send accidentally - Valuations of stocks are sky high, and economic optimism is raging. But if in two months the tariff and deficit side of the coin is played then that means increased inflation. Massive increase in the deficit (which is what happened last time) is inflationary, whether it's spending or tax cuts. At this point I simply don't see anything but a collision between what Trump has promised and what he needs to deliver. One promise on immigration is going to squeeze employment in an inflationary manner more than we have ever seen in the home construction industry. Unless I am mistaken and the labor force building homes, at least in Texas are non-english speakers. I don't think I have had any work done on my house other than AC that was by predominantly english speakers. It may be great in 6 months, but I am hedging big that history repeats itself, and the unpredictability of the marketplace in so many areas will keep rates high as folks seek safe haven of US treasuries. I think we are in for a period of Governmental disruption the likes of nothing we have ever seen. I simply fail to see how such disruption, even if wildly successful, is going to lead to lower interest rates that folks were predicting for 2025 in September. But what I do predict is that buyers will indeed start buying again reluctantly. As they realize that the Fed is not going to be able to push rates lower, combined with a time sense of urgency among those who may have been waiting for rates to fall. And if the Stock market keeps climbing I believe that will help push net worth of potential buyers into the market as well. Not to the level that low interest rates would, but a gradual increase, slow but steady (too slow and unsteady for the industry). First time buyers will be fucked because they don't have money in the markets to see their down payment funds surging. I go back to what a lot of you guys got pissed at me for. The folks that wil make the most money in home industry will be folks that can convince buyers that these rates probably are not coming down much. How many buyers who really want to buy will wait 6 months to a year for the HOPE of a half point decrease? Trump for example just endorsed no longer having a debt ceiling. The bond market might view that as potentially inflationary. Hope I am wrong and my hedge is just a safety play. But I did not follow my gut on Covid and I literally missed out on an easy fortune.
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