horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I made my arguments pretty clear a month ago. Markets do not like instability, they like predictability. Try to find a post election market collapse. You can't. Because elections give clarity going forward. Unpredictability, makes any reasonable forecasting extremely difficult. The stock market is a forward looking beast, and I nearly came in yesterday saying how well I thought the markets were reacting to exactly what I expected from Powell. A rate cut, followed by a speech talking about the strength of the economy, concerns about hiring, but no need for action at current levels. The kill shot was when he said "it could take two more years to get inflation under control." (might be paraphrasing here) I actually put my money where my mouth was a month ago, and sold off some of my Palantir, and put 1/3 of my risky portfolio into UVIX. I also rebalanced the 401K Monday and shifted it from 90% stocks, to about 20% stock funds and 80% into bonds. That actually went up yesterday as well, which was amazing. So while I am not cutting and running from the stock market, I feel that it's wise to assume extreme unpredictability in the first few months of 2025 as political rhetoric becomes policy (or doesn't). That's the unpredictability part of the equation. -
I Blindly Dive Into Buying and Selling Antiques
horn4life replied to RDCanecutter's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
Since I am liquidating a shit ton of odd china, this is of interest to me. I predict that eventually you will shift to... lighter shit to sell! But good luck! If you enjoy it, keep doing it! I went to my first Austin Record convention a few months ago, and ran into a guy whose daughter I coached for years. He had basically become a Willie Nelson poster specialist. He even put a book together that he sells. He introduced me to the guy in the booth next to him, used to own Inner Sanctum Records for you olds. He sold mostly posters, but he also had a guy from Cali buying like $1000 of records a week from him, for resale out there. KNOWLEDGE and expertise in narrow areas seem to be the most important factors in any of these sorts of ventures. This is fucking crazy, but apparently some ugly ass corning ware we tossed from my MIL's estate, was worth like $2000 per piece! But we had not knowledge nor expertise. I have a shit ton of stuff that may or may not be valuable that I am going through. But I don't know WTF I actually have in most cases. I guess I will post some pics here. -
This is basically the only reason we have cable anymore, for me to watch football. It's apparently on TNT, TBS and TrueTV. This may be the last year we keep the cable. Besides football the only other reason I have kept the cable is that I can cast any of my Direct TV channels wherever I am. Mainly in that I can have all the same stuff we have at home in our RV. That's a nice feature at night. But yes TNT vs one of the big boys sucks, but this shit is only going to get more fractured in the future as far as broadcast platforms.
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Ok I paid- apparently this is my annual Venmo pmt.
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Ok I signed up just now to catch the first game. But it's not prompting me to pay via the site?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Interesting takes bay all - Interesting to consider the "satellite location" aspect of a tech downturn. I was thinking more related to the super elevated valuations in the NASDAQ effecting tech more, and that housing markets that rise highest, tend to pull back the most percentage wise. The one thing I will say that if I were advising anyone, especially younger folks without kids, is look CAREFULLY at school districts when buying. Simply as I remember the RE crash and it was fascinating to see the houses hold their value better, and turn more often in the better school districts. If I am looking at two very similar houses, the ISD might be the deciding factor. It's not a huge thing, but when you need to sell in a tough market you need every edge you can get. And even in shitty markets parents are willing to spend a little more to get their kids a better education. IMHO. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Honestly I hadn't really thought about a more weighted downturn in Austin because of tech. I guess I have lived here so long I don't even really think of it as a "class" as it's so much of the Austin landscape. But if Austin falls... What about all the ticks that have been sucking on the big dog, like Buda, Cedar Park/Leander, Georgetown? Are their markets not also largely dependent on tech's rise or fall? IT's a huge issue in the Corpus Area. There is actually a lot of development about to happen on the Island that is going to change the landscape completely. The water supply there just fell below 20%. That's not a lot of leeway for error. The state should have been building desalination plants years ago for the area, when they started putting big money into dredging the channel and the bridge boondoggle that was going to bring a lot of employment. People need to drink water. And industry as a whole need reliable affordable water sources. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
If they are hung according to their tie length, the older bro is at least winning that contest. But the fucking three different lengths of ties cracks me up. Bro #1, is channeling Homer Simpson on his tie length... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I have been saying for the last couple years that a LOT of the listings were simply, "maybe I can get this silly number?" Houses sitting 90 days without regular price reductions are NOT homes that NEED to be sold. They are houses that will ONLY be sold at a price that the marketplace will not currently support. "But two years ago..." will be the words out of the sellers mouth, when justifying their silly price. They are not IMHO true listings. I don't know what you call a listing that is never going to sell at the listing price, but there is a shit ton of this is Austin. About the only bear case in Downtown Austin is commercial real estate due to flexible work changing the landscape. Hell right now they pretty much sell the majority of their downtown condos before they even top out the building. So despite the homelessness issue, those very pricy units have been moving very quickly especially in presale. I will say that you are seeing some capitulation in downtown condo resales. Simply as if you need to sell, price capitulation is you only ally unfortunately. I did a quick "condo 2/2" search and zoomed in on the greater downtown area. And indeed I found the fuck up builder! Hogan ave Unit B Hogan Ave Unit A. not really downtown, but it popped up on my condo search. I do think that Austin is cooling to some degree after being white hot for a decade. But I also think that the love of Austin has run into the reality of 100 degree plus days all Summer. But overall tech is still in charge in Austin, hell Apple hasn't even finished it's monster campus up North. I am not sure what "family destination" means, but Dirty Sixth probably would not be on my list. But I see shit tons of tourist families every time I go see music on SOCO. But Austin is indeed a pricy, family destination, but homelessness is probably not a determining factor at all. Unless you really, really want to take you kids to Casino El Camino, on a Saturday night. But I can say the same for any downtown urban area. The difference is Austin probably has more high end housing infill, than any other city in Texas. Hell I am having a hard time finding a similar marketplace with that sort of infill? Help me out here? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
if you are a builder you simply must either turn inventory, or stop building. Not a whole lot of in between. I didn't look at the video because in this market nobody is dropping their pants 50%. But empty completed homes also have carrying costs, and at what point do larger builders feel the necessity to cut margin if the homes are not turning? The guys who usually get fucked if the market tanks are the small builders. They hesitate and don't get out even at a small loss, then the carrying costs eat them up, and they sell an even larger loss. Or worse, the bank calls their loan, and they get wiped out. I think we are a long fucking way away from any builders losing money any time soon. Of course there are some dumb motherfuckers out there, so I am sure some builder if screwing up out there. -
Here's the deal. Folks fucking hate Texas. And when you go to your kids sports games there are officials from the time they are 8 years old onward refereeing games. You know who are not a big part of that referee pool? Longhorns. Hardly any, from my life experience. And they tend to often have a negative view of Texas (envy, hatred, desire to harm) and it bleeds into their view of the game. Did we get fucked on calls for the most part? Absofuckinglutely! But that's the norm, not the exception. We will always have more questionable calls go against us, than for us. AND THAT IS NEVER GOING TO FUCKING CHANGE! And for Texas to win championships we have to not only win on the field but overcome, the shit calls we KNOW are gonna come our way. Again, and again, and again. But you have to overcome! To win at Texas you can't shoot your own self in the foot. Too many convict dressed folks already doing that. You just have to bear down, and overcome. No other choice.
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Tracking Trump Administration and Cabinet picks
horn4life replied to PenelopeWitherspoon's topic in Cloak Room
The leader of South Korea, who ordered the arrest of his political enemies was rebuked, and Democracy seems to have held in South Korea. You know that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, sure wished he had his Pete Hegseth in charge of the military.... might have been a completely different story. -
I don't do them a lot, but the bottom line is the reason you are smashing the burger is to get crispier irregular edges IMHO. The sear is the key, and fatty hamburger is some sticky ass shit. I sort of view smash burgers the way I view making homemade tortillas. Without parchment paper you have more mess than tortillas. In fact parchment paper is probably one of the more underutilized tools in the kitchen tool box. The "smash" is simply sustained pressure to get a uniform seal with the sear. Then it's just leaving the damn thing alone until you see the blood boil up to the top. Then you turn it, and DO NOT smash the burger again!!! if you want to elevate the flavor take the time to clarify some butter and use that as your oil! And of course only American cheese! If you are making the mini Hawaiian roll sliders toast the rolls. And you become a GOD! PS - if you are truly making the super seared smash burger in quantity you should get a heavy spatula with a 45 degree angle on the edge. As basically the best way to get the complete sear, is you are literally scraping the burger off of the griddle. Think about how you scrape a flat griddle of debris. Only the debris is attached to the burger in the sear.
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Financial moves to make before 12/31
horn4life replied to StassneyHorn's topic in Business and Markets
1) Max 401K, then Max HSA, then look at Roth. First two are pretax. And you can take both with you if fired. 2) If you sold stock and have capital gains, then look at selling any loser stocks to offset those cap gains. 3) Review all your insurance, bank and brokerage accounts to make sure you have correct beneficiaries in place in case of your demise. 4) Take $100 and carry it around between now and the end of the year. And give it away to somebody, for any reason you deem. You will know the right moment, and it will make you feel really good inside. -
Work hard, Believe, and appreciate the environment you are in. From that... can come true greatness!
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So those motherfuckers were reading my shit here on surly, repeating my words, and pretending it was their own fucking thoughts! Rogers is both an enigma and enema, and if you are dumb enough to part with your money, you can see that at the cinema.
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The only enigma with Rogers, is that he doesn't realize he plays like enema...
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Well, you have to like the Longhorn sense of humor! SEC! SEC! SEC! The Aggies used to chant that as if they were something other than a cog in the wheel. Exactly what they ran away from, came to their house, and crushed... the now 13 year dream of playing in the SEC championship. Texas is like the cool neighbor that screwed your soon to be wife 13 years ago. Then last night, you caught that mofo banging your mom, while she screamed SEC...SEC...SEC! Texas cheers and Aggie Tears, who is to tell which is sweeter?
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Fuck Yes! BWahahahahaha!
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Holy shit! There is a reason Aggie Jokes fucking write themselves. At the top of the second hour of Gameday (1:00:33 to be exact) Pat McAfee is going to stand in front of the cannon to feel the concussion. They lower the swords to indicate to fire the cannon... McAfee winces and contracts waiting for the boom... and... nothing. Fucking Aggies didn't load the cannon. The background comments of "oh no Aggies..." and Fire in the hole, as the guys scramble to get the cannon loaded is fucking hilarious. Thirty seconds later they cut to the Aggies finally getting the cannon loaded and fired... but a competency Misfire! The jokes... they write themselves!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
LOVE THIS! Heck any after the sale contacts are basically networking towards a future sale via referral or future move of the client. When I was trying to do research on an area I was interested in I would basically tag the houses as priced right, or lingerers with future reductions. One is a lot better than the other. Coming back and showing them you were correct in your listing advice (especially to the more resistant clients) is even better. -
We used to do the dollar dance lunch thing before skipping out to play golf. I used to like to "play Indian." Which meant getting $20 in ones and fanning the cash across my forehead, not unlike the feathers of an Indian head dress.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Isn't this mostly a play on the "greater negotiability" of commissions, as well as competency? The only way I guess it would work is if as an agent you can get the owner to list for a lower price you are certain will move in the market? How many agents list too high, simply because they owner won't listen to the advice of the agent. Then the owner complains about the listing sitting on the market? I think the shocking thing here is the bidding and up front money aspect. Better damn sure have a sales price that will close! I know in Austin on the radio that some agents guarantee the price or they will buy the house. So the concept of a locked in sale price guarantee is not unique in the marketplace. I wonder if the concept will survive or not? If I was a very successful agent, might it "be worth it" to pay for listings if you were very confident in your ability to sell the house at the listing price? You would eliminate wasting time with sellers who insist on pricing too high? Only successful agents with high liquidity, could use this sort of strategy. But is there any argument to be made, that waking up every morning to a slew of potential listings? To listings you can price correctly, or move on from? Anyhow interesting concept that is way outside the norm. But as an eternal contrarian, you often don't know what will or will not work until it hits the marketplace? Of course Zillow thought they could become house flippers... Using a lot of the same (I know I can sell it at X logic) thinking I listed as a possibility for the agent bidding site. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Isn't the biggest problem with Condos that it's more difficult to get conventional financing? Might the new administration loosen the lending rules? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
correct I forgot to mention that as well as a potential factor. Market liked him. Still big moves. Unbridled optimism and animal spirits? I am more looking to hedge after the first of the year. I honestly think the market is going to rally going into December. But like I heard a guy say the other day about stocks and the market. "The trees don't grow to the sky." If the market rolls and I do nothing I will be in great shape. But valuations and Buffett having so much cash on the sidelines makes me nervous. Just not nervous enough to take a huge short term cap gains hit in the last 35 days of the year.
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