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horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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YES... let's enjoy the Aggie misery index a bit more. I remember after the game. If I were an Aggie I would fucking hate us! I mean it would probably become visceral and damage my life. We are like Lucy snatching to football away from the hapless Charlie Brown, and just crushing hope. What went from an opportunity to pound a rival, even in the final few moments of the second overtime, a nice lead, and only seconds left... Texas ruins what was going to be sheer sweetness, and turns it into anger and bitterness. It really is a weight that Aggies have to bear. And I for one enjoy them bearing it!
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Well there was actually a protest at the Tesla I assume sales office, at Pond Springs and 183 this morning. Actually had maybe 60-85 people when I drove by, to Leaf Nursery. Looked like more cars had parked and I realized I needed to U-Turn to avoid the congestion. About that time I saw some dude in a suit in the back of a Tesla with a Bullhorn headed to defend Musk and Tesla. I guess the very popular "Don't buy a Swasticar," has come over from Europe. sure wish I had bought that March 21, $560 put for $150 I chickened out on.
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The big boys can manipulate the market if they collude, but mainly the big boys have enough cash at all times to buy when there is blood in the streets. But I believe also that over time even the big boys cannot control the markets completely. If you were fully invested on February 1, you didn't have cash on the sidelines to take advantage of the fall. The average guys 401K is fully invested, and it just rides up and down, with the longer timelines smoothing out the rough patches. But I do agree that up is down right now... so how do I choose what to bet on? I can't. So by default, I am getting against. I had to search for this as I heard somebody else repeating these words last week. But this is basically why I am currently against the market. Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law. While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate in the first fifty days with more of the former than the latter. - Michael Cembalest I honestly had no idea who this guy was, but this statement stuck in my mind. He is apparently and analyst for J.P. Morgan and the above words were the opening for him market analysis research paper in Eye on the Market Interesting read, but lengthy especially if you read all the footnotes. Eye on the Market - Fifty Shades of Grey. Some interesting reading explaining why this is NOT a normal market, and relying on normal market history and indicators may not be reliable in a world of tariffs.
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THIS
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How does this thread only have one page?
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This same came though on a CNBC noon chart. But is this a normal market? To me I should have gotten the ass whipping I got today, two days ago, after good jobless and inflation news??? Not good consumer sentiment (for a consumer driven economy) but no shutdown (at least as of now). No shutdown was priced in more to the downside, than consumer confidence was priced to the upside? WTF I honestly would have thought the market would have reacted negatively to the consumer negativity, than positively to no gov't shutdown. Or it could just be taking that data from above quote, and the algorithm says buy? Which honestly is a decent explanation.
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This is what I typed as the Vandy game was tipping off. In the "Terry's Last Stand thread. Tennessee is a tough matchup for up, and two overtimes of banging are not a plus. But for the first time we have perhaps enough healthy contributors to cover the minutes? Time management of the starters trying to keep them as fresh as possible. But fuck, I was watching the last few minutes of the Aggie game's second overtime. We get so fucking jobbed by the refs. But Come ON Boys!!! Let's get one more. Early time rotation of players is going to be key! Hell if I were at that game I would be tired just from cheering and the emotional ups and downs.
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I don't see how the Fed can with any confidence do much of anything, except wait for more data. Main thing is today, and how does the day finish. Do the gains hold? Or does it sell off into the close. If they hold I may make a pretty big trim and take the profits and cut exposure.
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So you think the selling is flushed out? IF that's the case all may gains betting against the market will evaporate. I am thinking this is more that the debt ceiling is apparently going to be raised? But is that what has been dragging on the market? OR is this an upward bounce to sell on? The government not shutting down is very good news. But with a shit consumer sentiment number... Inflation number and jobs were honestly better than I thought they could be, this week. March 21 was my circled in red date. So we will see. But I am bleeding today for sure.
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I have not moved her for soon to me 18 months. Taking care of my folks now remodeling their place has robbed most of that time. Hoping to get the rig back out in May. But hell the prep will be a couple days. Plus I used the keys to grab some white lithium out of the tool box, and somehow... I have apparently lost them. Or they are not in the two place I usually set keys, so that concerning. I have my month booked for Port A, but right now is when I should be using her. I sort of dread all the work, with all the other shit on my plate. But the greatest thing about our trailer was that we could bring our dog and that it felt like home. I also was thinking about using it and saving drive time remodeling the place on Lake Belton. So that could be the shake down cruise.
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Shit having Lutnick and Bessent talk... is simply not good for the market. Better for neither of them to come on the financial news channels. As Bessent was explaining how the gas price decline was all Trump, and Lutnick was explaining how the market fall is actually Biden's economy. Very confusing messaging less than two hours apart. Especially when folks are watching their 401K moving in a concerning direction.
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I am about to enjoy a beautiful day with my wife of 39 years. We are going to take a time machine back when we were young living in Travis Heights with an infant and a newborn. A time long ago when a good baby sitter you could trust with your young children was more valuable than your car for parental freedom. We used to go see a lot of music, and today is a day to rekindle that. We are going to go down to South Congress and drift between music venues, grab some food, I'll have a few drinks, and just generally have a damn good day. Might even run into some old friends. Or perhaps even make some new ones! Each day is yours to own. And while many things you cannot control, there are so many things you can control that can make each day of yours, AND someone elses better. Just be nice! Be as nice as you can, to everyone you meet. Especially folks in subservient positions. The funniest thing about being nice, is it tends to make so very many more days "good days in the world." You never know what tomorrow holds, so take control of today. So today I am going to go spread goodwill in the world! Unless you fucking step in front of me right as the headliner comes on. Then I will be like Patrick Swayze in road house, you be nice until it's time to be nice. But a beautiful day to see live music in Austin outdoors with a loved one, or a new friend. Have a great day all of you!
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Te more I hear Howard Lutnick talk, the more comfortable I am shorting this market. Because as Lutnick just told me this 1st quarter is all Biden, Second quarter might be Biden's, and third quarter will be Trump's. You see Lutnick did present an exact economic model of the usual Presidency. As usually it takes at least several quarters of gradual change as policies trickle though the economy. That is indeed the norm. But Lutnick KNOWS that this is not a normal transition and that the tariffs take more like a few weeks or two months to start seeing that inflation. The complete disconnects with reality that Secretary Lutnick repeatedly espouses, are what make me have such grave concerns for this market. You can say anything politically. But the problem is folks don't believe clear bullshit when it comes to their money. And pretending that this shock to the markets is actually "Biden's fault" to own? Which means that the market is actually betting against the Biden policies of the past? And is no longer forward looking? I gook a pretty good loss yesterday, and looking at this mornings numbers I should be facing another decent loss, Instead, after hearing Lutnick's delusion, I can only assume his delusion is a reflection of cabinet level economic discussions? Fucking Lutnick, now I almost feel obligated to add to my fucking risky bets against this market, even in anticipation of a beating. Or as Lutnick would say... against Biden's market... Another teeny tiny bit of UVIX premarket.
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Or you could invest in today's stock market! But at least you would have long odds with that parlay!
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Well NOT going 0-13 vs OU could have made certain that would not be an issue... Oh wait.. 0-14. I missed one... 😉
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I expect Vandy to have extremely strong Referee play in the second half...
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Weaver is just a pest! Glad he's finally healthy again. maybe these kids are just want to keep playing games? I know I would. I would also be disappointed as hell with this year's performance. But that's the thing about tournaments, all you have to do is win the next one. What I am seeing today is what i hoped to see back when stockings were still on our mantel.
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OK this is getting fucking fun
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well sort of happy I was too tired to go see music. They are playing about as well as I've seen... of course I was also slow fast forwarding a lot of taped games watching the score ebb from hope, to hopeless.
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You know if I had a bookie I might actually take Texas +2.5. I think they take Vandy. But there is a reason that I don't bet anymore. Texas -12, final score UCLA 66 - Texas 3... that was painful. So I might as well go out bold. Win today over Vandy, and then the upset of A&M. I also predict Tre gets at least two buckets in this game! oops typed that befoer I realized the game was already on...
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All they really need to do is win 9 games in a row, and they are National Champions! If I my lazy ass math guess was right. It would be sort of fun to beat both Vandy and A&M. ahhh... hope springs eternal
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What brand are those wading boots? They look comfy!
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Well Dad... yeah... What good is being in a punk band if you tell you Dad everything? 😉 You know, I cannot recall what Conner was talking about, but I thought it was a show? I think I had just tuned in, but the query perked my ear. I thought it had to be like, "Die motherfucker Die!"
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Jimmy - looks like your kid has an early show I can hit up! 5;45 today at Mohawk! RSVP on phone. Got a hall pass from wife, so I think I am going to try my first cap metro train ride today. Also!- Is it DEE spitz or DIE spitz pronunciation. I think you addressed this somewhere, but Kevin Conner the moring DJ on Sun Radio pondered this question the other day. I thought you said DEE Spitz but WTF do I know. --------------------- Here is the blackboard at Continental with tiny as shit writing, the SXSJ day by day lineup, and the SoCo Stomp poster. Fot those of you trying to move around and getting a better timeline of who plays when. On the SXSJ poster bands at bottom open and top is closer. Have fun out there. And LOOK EVERYWHERE when crossing the street. I saw two close calls in 3 hours yesterday. ANd please! for the sake of your families and the post surgery recovery nurses downtown, do NOT get on one of those fucking scooters. Shit tons of head injuries from those bitches. Whoo Hooo - old people spring break is here!
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Thought we might see a trickle of an upwards push on inflation this morning. But inflation has held steady. So markets up a bit this AM, but I am going to hold my negative position at least through next week. If the unemployment numbers tomorrow do not have much upwards push, the market should react positively. But not having a bad inflation number today was a very good thing for the market! Hard to believe this is only 8th trading day of the month...
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