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horn4life

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Everything posted by horn4life

  1. Ukraine is fucked. Because Putin own Trump. Nothing more, nothing less.
  2. Well... Davy Crockett made a hat out of one of his relatives. I remember I caught a really big boy. 15 years ago. The second I picked that cage up, i realized how heavy he was. About he time he flipped over on his back, and stuck that skinny arm out and took a swipe at me.
  3. OK - it's been a LOOOOOOoooooonnnnnnnngggggg time since I ate beef ribs at Iron Works. I honestly had forgotten about them. And then I remembered many stained dress shirts in the mid 80's. Do they stack up anymore? Lord I cannot even remember the last time I ordered a beef rib, and I know when I did it was at Iron Works. Please tell me it's at least good enough to get my nostalgia on to make it worth the parking. The great thing about Austin and the surrounding area, is you can't make a living long with sub-par BBQ. But at $20+ a pound... it better be good! Anyhow appreciate feedback on if should check out iron Works again. or tell me where else to get a beef rib plate?
  4. horn4life

    SXSW 2025

    THIS
  5. horn4life

    SXSW 2025

    I would think you could find street parking near ACC? PSA - if you are free at 5pm today, go by C-Boys on SoCo and get some free crawfish! Free crawfish and Zydeco Music courtesy of Lafayette Live. Free Lonestar I think if you RSVP. Anyhow that will be my SXSW kick off... with a drift by Continental and SXSJ to take pics of lineups for timing.
  6. found this -The wash sale rule means that if an investment is sold at a loss and then repurchased within 30 days before or after the sale, you cannot claim the initial loss for tax purposes. The 30 days on either side of the sale, plus the day of the sale, translates into 61 days of what is called a “wait period.” This is the time during which you cannot buy the same or similar security.
  7. So I have a few questions about how options are taxed. Since i was had a shit ton of disallowed losses a couple years ago, I want to try and avoid those going forward. So tell me where I am wrong!!! Might be everywhere! 1) If I buy and equity using a covered call. And the call expires OTM, there is not a taxable transaction because I have not sold the stock? Correct? 2) So if I am correct on #1, then you could conceivably sell calls repeatedly on the same shares, if the ALL fell OTM, and the basis value of the stock would just fall. Correct? So I think I am correct on above. But am not certain, and since I have not given this much thought I thought easier to come ask here. What I am trying to figure out is how are the costs of rolling, or closing options positions treated? From the perspective of disallowed losses??? For example: Lets say I have a $50 stock that I buy, and sell a covered call a month ahead to sell the Stock for $55. So my cost basis if $45 The stock moves upwards past the $55 mark by a few cents going into the expiration. What is the best strategy from a tax perspective? Do you toll the stock out endlessly potentially to avoid a gain? This is the part I do not get, since I have no personal tax history to draw on. How is the cost side of the roll taxed? I see a loss for the cost on my books, but how is it treated? Anyhow thinking about it last night after a couple Ritas was not giving me any clarification (not surprisingly) ANY LINK ANYWHERE THAT SIMPLY EXPLAINS THIS? PSA - If you are in Austin, you can at least get free crawfish today! C-Boys at 5pm. If you RSVP you get a lonestar too I think. And while the markets are sucking, perhaps sucking the heads a few free mudbugs and some Zydeco music might ease the pains of the day.
  8. Maybe I am looking at this backwards. Rocket is basically a financing entity. If I am Rocket, is not every mortgagor that wants to move an opportunity for two loans? One for the existing mortgagor for the new home. And a new mortgagor for the property being sold that you have carried the note on for X amount of years. Just as many agents might negotiate a lower rate on a sale and buy paired together. Might Rocket looking a the mortgage market in the same way? Knowing a deal is there, and trying to get both sides for a tiny discount in rate? I would think Rocket is the lead marketer. Selling the "Redfin package" that allows a point(+/-?) On both loan originations, and still make pretty good bank? THIS IS A QUESTION? From the professional mortgage lender side of the equation does my meandering make sense mathematically? I have not idea honestly, but I am trying to figure out why this is a good idea for Rocket and these are my post- Gloria's rita musings. So might not make any fucking sense at all..
  9. Yeah... I have fucked myself multiple times with this. And I did not add that into the equation.
  10. First off. I feel fucking bad, knowing that nearly everyone around me is losing big bucks in their investment and 401K accounts. But betting against Trump is the easiest bet I have seen since I was not in the market in early january before covid. I am betting on a couple things 1) yes men are never good leaders 2) yes men in a small family owned company are great scapegoats for the son who inherited the business 3) Do you bet on some of the least qualified confirmed cabinet heads to run the largest company in existence? 4) There is a completely non-factual fairy tale about the success of the Trump Economy before Covid. Jobs did not increase from what the inherited. And the per cost for each additional added US Employee in the employment numbers skyrocketed, because... the Taxes and Jobs cut act, only cut taxes... and kept employment about the same pre $4 trillion borrowing hicky. 5) Mainly I am betting against this market because I remember the baseless (economically factual) exuberance last Trump go round. Super fucking smart people that absolutely believed easily refutable "achievements." You can fix stupid. But the cost is fucking up the economy insisting that some of the most basic economic principles do not exist. Because... When you can make $5 million every weekend off the American taxpayer at your country club. You are sort of a genius...
  11. I sure as hell don't see how overpaying for Redfin is a good deal. To be honest, rather than merging, I would be a seller of both right now. it's like a marriage between ugly people hoping for beautiful children... if there is enough cash flow. Is it desperation, looking for a new captive source of financing? I don't see the margin in loans to justify the premium for Redfin. BUT, from what it sound like from everyone here who deals with Redfin. Mortgage funding is difficult for the Redfin dumbass agents. Maybe that's the angle. If you made the agents not so stupid... it would be easier to close a Redfin mortgage?
  12. Yeah that's the most bullshit thing ever. Why not be able to simply offset the loss with a gain? I guess somebody has to pay for that carried interest benefit...
  13. Rise and shine! Get ready for another week that feels like a month!
  14. Interesting to see Rocket just agree to buy Redfin. I am trying to decide if this is good for Rocket or not? I see how it broadens the possibility of getting both the sale and the mortgage. And possible incentive packaging on a sell and repurchase scenario? But on the flip side of the coin, did Rocket just open itself up to more potential downside pain, if the market doesn't turn? Rates are indeed coming down, seemingly now in concert with declines in the stock market. I don't really see how this is a positive for Rocket, at least at this point. But funny to see "Redfin sucks balls" in this tread followed by "Redfin bought by Rocket!" Redfin nearly doubles in pre-market trading.
  15. The bottom line on retirement is.... hold your breath... math! I have been semi-retired for a while now. Wife still works full time, mainly to make sure we have good insurance coverage. I make money in the market, doing remodels, and make my money more in chunks. We sacrificed salary in our prime years to spend more time with our kids, and we are glad we did. The good news is we have been using the catchup rules, and poured a lot more into her 401K the last couple years as the market rose. Which also reduced our taxable income this coming year, but next year is going to be a doozy on cap gains. I honestly don't know that I will ever completely retire. She probably will at some point, but the plan now is for her to cut back to part time when she turns 65, and then she will see how it goes. But one thing that I think is true for us, we would be bored doing nothing while we are still in good health (knock on wood). We also have not received any inheritance from either of our families, and that will likely cascade through in the next couple years. The main thing is to try to maintain our health for quality of life. If we can have a few more years of putting money aside, we should be ok. Not a lavish lifestyle, but I don't think we are going to have to worry unless we spend extremely unwisely. The one factor I think that might be a fly in the ointment from a fiscal planning perspective is fucking insurance. Not the health kind. But the home and car kind? IF you were on a tight fixed income the last two years, that is where I see my budget out of whack from expectation. I have about 5 years to create an additional $3,000 a month. As my BIL said when he did not take the Fed buyout, if he can hang on 3 more years, it would be the difference between being just fine, and taking that annual trip to Europe. Of course if I croak, I won't have to worry about a thing!
  16. I see the appeal of foreign investment. But it's also an economist pet peeve of mine arguing that money mobility makes tax cuts for the rich not necessarily at all stimulative for the US economy. For that reason I prefer to keep my money in US markets. I know all sorts of international overlap of US companies, but at least my capital in invested in the US. I also enjoyed hearing Scott Bessent explain to those of us thinking that tariff policy was roiling the market, is actually the Biden economy that Trump inherited rolling over. Trump and Bessent are actually victims of circumstance. Tariffs? What Tariffs? That is not the problem... Good jobs report on employment, but under predictions, for a premarket dow pop. Tick up in unemployment the trickle I expected. Next week is what I have circled.
  17. For less $800!!! $799 on sale until April 6th. Mainly it has a 120 refresh rate, which I have not seen before at this size and price point.
  18. Don't disagree at all. Single best things folks can do is buy a little over time. One of the riskiest is buying a lot all at once, sadly a big red number taught me from experience. Right now I am simply trying to profit in a volatile environment. I still have a strong cash reserve. Almost bought some AMGN today and it's actually fucking green on my board. I just don't have to confidence to yet. But I have no certainty, and thus I have to hedge and spend money to try to protect any gains I get right now. If I was all negative risk on against the market, I would be killing it. But the risk would be far too extreme. I am waiting with cash to buy. Good new is Broadcom just put up a good number. I was worried about a bad one. Not for me but for Tech in general,
  19. Bought some options, then saw it start to lose momentum, and thought... "you fucking dumbass, you believe in uncertainty" and a bet on PLTR is that I was certain that the bottom had come. So bailed about 10 minutes after I bought those call options. Thank heaven. I think we are going to see a trickle of what next week will be an emergency plumber visit. A little push up, but maybe a few percent at most of the Federal firings? And getting the bonus of that first tariff inflation trickling onto the books as well? Yikes! March 21 was the date I circled originally back at the first of the year as when I thought the effects of tariffs and uncertainty would either hit, or likely not hit the market. My big fear is the uncertainty now is becoming a baked in drag on optimism, which drifts to consumer pullbacks, which drift to and assortment of consumer spending reductions. In what is ultimately a consumer driven US economy, that's not good mojo. So or a reverse money multiplier effect.
  20. The problem with the Trump policy at this point is not what the policy is or is not. It's the fact that it is proclaimed one thing, then policy whipsaws exactly the opposite direction. It's not the policy itself (which I personally believe will be very inflationary). But the lack of clarity sort or makes me view the market right now as my UVIX where it will basically daily degrade, under the weight of transactional friction and end of day rebalancing. The friction is now the problem. Because now even if a firm and permanent trade policy was implemented by the administration tomorrow, would anybody? And I do mean Anybody, think that the policy presented would be the final policy? Even if it truly was the permanent new policy, the assumption would be that the policy would again soon be revised. So it might take an extended (compared to normal) length of time for the policy to be widely viewed as actual policy. Right now "Policy" is a tweet, followed up by a very strong and principled appearance by Lutnick. Followed the next day by a very strong and principled Lutnick, strongly asserting the exact opposite. This friction... in my mind is like death by a thousand tiny cuts dragging on the market. My one Plus play in the market in this account is Since I am slightly open to a big drop in UVIX, I took a tiny nibble of PLTR Tuesday, with March 7, $85 covered calls. My net price is $81.04, and I don't get any topside FOMO until $89.70. But making 5% in 3 days, is how I build my original PLTR stake. If it closes OTM, tomorrow then I keep the shares and resell more calls on the next steep move upward, farther out for a larger premium. Of course this only works on a rising stock over time.
  21. That's why I have such a big bet against the market. But my big downward bet has done so well I have now burned money to hedge back to preserve those gains, in case the market has a nice rebound. If you have nice gains you want to protect you need to develop a reactive strategy, beyond hope. Or the concern will be exactly wishing you could get that capital returned. It is also good to point out that until you sell a stock you have not gained a penny nor lost a dime. Only at the sale point does that occur. OR Infant mortality rates in Texas... (wish I could laugh at that one)
  22. Is anyone besides me actually shocked at the apparent complete lack of anticipation by the administration of the most obvious pitfalls? I mean was it actually difficult to anticipate that without a carve out US cars will be increase dramatically in price? I mean is that not the most glaring potential problem easily identified? Or am wrong? On the huge plus side! For the first time in years Freshmen in ECO 101, actually get to live out the text they are read studying! Usually economic shifts take longer than a semester to really observe. Often years, but now freshmen can see the effects weekly or daily( perhaps hourly). Probably makes the class a LOT more fun to teach as the discussions and debate would be very current. I guess comparing and contrasting the Tariffs of the turn of the century and today, is a common writing assignment prompt in Economics classes across the nation.
  23. Russian Oil Exports just surged. Talk of loosening restrictions, no more cyber against Russia apparently, emasculation of Zelensky, paired with eternal deference to Putin. And today freeze on intelligence sharing. Well... it's been a very, very good year for Putin!
  24. But do you think this is the same actual level of exuberance today, that we had then? When Commerce Secretary Lutnick comes on TV Monday and explains that these tariffs are NOT anything but absolutely necessary because of Fentanyl, and then flips by the end of the next day as markets fall. Suggesting less that 48 hours later the administration may be flexible on what was an absolute necessity hours before? This is the person speaking for US trade policy. And I guarantee you Secretary Lutnick if asked could not write down on a napkin what US policy will be at any given data point in the future. And isn't that the definition of uncertainty? IF this was a corporate rollout... you would short the company. ADP reported big jobs miss, 77K vs 186K. And those provisional Fed folks are going to be hitting the books, about the same time the tariffs should begin to impact inflation. Next Friday is gonna be exciting.
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