
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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Anyone know an exterior painter in the Temple/Belton area? It's got a little second story work that is sort of gnarly as the house sits on a steep slope on the lake.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
If you think you can predict anything daily right now, Take your down payment, and triple your money in the stock market in three days! Or three hours with some risky options.! You have a special deal that allows you to qualify based on earnings, you do not yet have on the books. Highly predictable and likely earnings. That's why there is a Doc loan. Take the fucking rate, don't look back. And buy some cheap ass young person life insurance now to protect yourself and your family. Mainly because you have a leveraged loan based on your future earnings. Making sure that your coverage is far beyond that note would be the best way to protect your family. But as everyone with synapses firing has said... take the deal! The banks give you the deal because they know that they have a very good chance of getting that second loan when you don't need a special program because of your debt ratio. If you do both loans with the same company? Those are some sweet fees, and the first loan is less than a 5 year buyout... if you have a doc ego... 😉 -
Right there with you! Sold March $57 calls on 1/3 as my first try to get some cash for downside, and bought $39 puts, and sold $57 on the remaining 2/3 a little later as the gains receded.. The good news is that first 1/3 of calls I sold paid for the cost of the protection/income of the other 2/3. Learned from not keeping my PLTR stops tighter on at least some of my holdings. And that cost me. So at least I have some downside protection and a some more room to run to the upside.
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What's crazy is that this has been the plan for years, and has been fine tuned over the last few months to roll out. The execution of this shit is actually a microcosm of what is to come. When there is not a single soul in a room to offer a contrary opinion, management decisions are often poorly made, and poorly executed. They could have just laid out a timetable, and some clear 90 day guidelines for some reliability in potential decision making. The uncertainty IS my bet right now. You post Waaay back pushed me to start tiptoeing this direction as well. But leveraging something as volatile as UVIX is indeed both fun and scary.
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Good to know that on April 2nd, we will find out what the actual tariffs are going to be. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. These tariffs are going to stop fentanyl, the business ones will be revealed on April 2nd. I thought that might shave off my pre-market. The more I hear him talk, the more I feel very comfy betting against the market right now. Very comfortable.
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It's a risky as fuck ETF that is supposed to mirror 1 and 2 month VIX futures contracts at 2X. It has a nearly 2% expense expense ratio, and I bought it for a hedge against my PLTR, which I no longer own. I should have honestly used put options more to protect the PLTR as Insurance. Would have saved me a nice chunk on the way down. It's supposed the be 2X VIX - I'm in it because I see nothing but volatility in the near term. And tariffs are inflationary. Period. Large capital investment is already starting to wane, as how can a competent CEO's make decisions when economic policy from the Federal Government is akin to roulette? That's why I am in it. It's a short term hedge, that is now my only position. Basically it's a supposed to be a 2x volatility. So a 2x bet against the market.
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This is what I want to learn more about.
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Thought I stopped out on IBRX before the bounce last week. I'm out now. Better just to go eat at Red Ash a few times and at least have losses that taste good.
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Looks like ya'll had a great time!
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I am very sorry for all your losses. I thought about quoting myself a few times, but I can't feel really good about making money when those around me are losing. I am just glad I am betting against this market. What's funny is that while I had a great day. I also know that if the markets go down again hard in the morning. A wet finger will be stuck in the air... and the direction of the wind will potentially reverse todays policy. (if there is not a new twee I missed while writing?) Chaos is my friend right now. And I figure it's easier to bet against something that nobody at all can predict, that bet on something that nobody at all can predict... March 15th is going to make today look like a warmup... PS - I was upside down on UVIX, until I bought more after closing out my PLTR. and I left a LOT of fucking money on PLTR not selling sooner. but in a sweet spot now, at least until morning
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The biggest scam was the opening covid response- "free money for millionaires!" With the stipulation that they would not view amy approved transactions af fraudulent. So free money, need it or not.Cool to get a million tax payer dollars for preserving jobs when you were never going to lay off anyone anyhow. Now if some waitress got a couple hundered extra... THAT is where we need to prosecute. Biggest scam ever.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
FSBO rarely works in the sellers favor, in the long run. If you have people who like the house and wand to buy it (AND HAVE THE MEANS!). IF you have some live wires you can approach them to make competing offers before you list it. You could also do a carve out for the potential buyers you have already dealt with, in your listing agreement. But trying to sell it yourself when you have to move? I assume there is not an open ended, start date? Almost certainly a FSBO home is going to sit a lot longer on the market. And the listing can become stale. You are still going to want a buys agent commission to at least have some traffic of non-lookEloos. IMHO you are better off with a good agent, and a smart competitive selling price. But even if you are determined to go the FSBO route, interview two agents that are recognizable in your market, for a possible listing, market analysis, and suggested repairs and list price. That way you have an idea about what two professionals think you house is worth. And you know in advance who to call if the FSBO starts to drag. Best think you can do is figure out what your house is really worth, and figure out the net price you can live with. Let it be known in the area you would love to sell the house pre-listing. And you could cut costs, with a sales agreement via an attorney. Perhaps even an attorney that could also arrange an affordable mortgage... @Wulaw Horn The fact that you probably have a time factor involved in your relocation alone would make me fearful of the time a FSBO might take. Sell and move on... IMHO -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Do you sometimes simply say, no? That price is unrealistic, and I would be hurting and not helping you by listing at that price. Wish them the very, very best and tell them you would love to market their home at a price that will bring it off market with a sale. But in this case they probably do not have to sell. Thus no need for capitulation. I don't even consider houses like this legitimate listings. Because if you list a house at a price that will never ever fucking sell at a price remotely close to your asking price. Is it really for sale? I get that it's impossible to say no to any listing, no matter how stupidly priced. But the owner is not going to bend on a stupid price, the house is not going to sell, and the agent is going to waste shit ton of time. They will cut the price eventually. And I wonder if from a sales perspective saying no sometimes in the nicest possible way, might be the better long term strategy. Some of the most loyal accounts that were the hardest to get, I got by refusing to match a competitors impossible promise. They told the client what they wanted to hear, and I told them what they needed to hear. I also asked the for the business at this point, if the other guy doesn't deliver can I get the next shot. Again if they don't need to sell then this strategy won't work, because they will not capitulare so you can never be proven correct n the dumb ass sales price. -
On a small kid. I am cajoling you as long as possible. Wanting them to be a big girl or boy. But ultimately I will shove that pill down their throats. But that was Dad, not Grandad. But I don't give a fuck, you are going to take this medicine. From a psychological warfare perspective: If they are old enough to read ,I would tell them there is another way, but you are not going to like it... Open up a description of an enema on my phone and have them read it. While I started dragging in a garden hose from outside.... for visual effect. That pill should seem a better methodology to a smart kid. 😉
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Dude is both fast and fucking fearless. He's gonna get a check just to return balls. I would love like hell for him to return, but unless he has a girlfriend at Texas, he's going to be cashing an NFL check next season. I could not find his fumble count this year easily. But for the crazy ass risks he was taking punt returning? I was surprised he was not getting blown up and turning the ball over more regularly. He's going to be a good draft for somebody. He was honestly my favorite transfer this year.
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All I can say is that I missed out on how bad covid was going to be handled in the U.S. And I missed a huge opportunity to profit. We are going to get a shit inflation AND employment numbers the middle of March. I guess I could "Lay back and enjoy it," as Clayton Williams once said. But this time I am going to try to profit from it... or I could bet on Stupid?
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70 years ago trickle down was actually a decent stimulus concept. But that was only because of the limitations of investing outside the united states. Now a tax cut for anyone other than the middle class is a waste of money and a false stimulus. In that if something does not produce more than it costs, by definition. The bottom line is the tax cuts the GOP promises will create more tax revenue than they costs is simply a lie. They simply do nothing more than shift tax burden to lower classes, and concentrate more wealth into fewer and fewer hands over time. Did I love the cost of the borrowing that Biden did? Nope. But I also cannot ignore the fact that funding of infrastructure has been ignored by the GOP consistently, in favor of tax cuts that disproportionately help those that need the least assistance financially. Republican math simply has not added up in a very, very long time. Again I wish that just once, just one time, a Republican could hand off a economy to a Dem that was not a clusterfuck of some sort. But hey, cut taxes and all will be cured! It will be even worse with the most cowardly people I have ever seen sitting in elected offices with (R) by their names. Completely and totally gutless wonders from top to bottom. And that's exactly how democracies die...
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
About to run out, but new economic numbers show income up! ... but consumer pending down. That's sort of a book end of actual data to my anecdotal observations. As well as consumer sentiment polling. A single data point, does not a trend make. You would think if wages were climbing spending would also go up on your Eco 101 graph. -
The Trump economy he inherited the first go round was unbelievably strong, especially in job production. Obama inherited the biggest mess any President inherited in our lifettime. The GOP let the economy flounder, because they did not want to pass legislation that would fix the mess the GOP created. Instead, they did a bandaid, bill, to have the first thing Obama had to do was pass like a $600 billion dollar bill to stabilize and start rebuilding the economy. Just 8 years earlier George W. Bush inherited an economy that was procuding a surplus. Rather than allow the surplus to hit the books Bush and the GOP, decided paying down the debt was a bad idea. Trump inherits strong economy. GOP passes massive debt bill, disingenuously sunsetting ONLY the individual tax cuts, and making permanent the corporate tax cuts. This allowed the GOP to like about their real intentions of blowing a massive, massive hole int he deficit, with a cutoff that they never wanted to happen. But they did not want the American people to know the devastating long term costs of the legislation. But when you create massive deficits for tax cuts, without trying to invest wisely in the economy... you end up with the GOP handing off a fiscal mess to the Dem. Just once in my life I would like to see a GOP President that had control of congress for at least 2 years of their term, hand off an economy stronger than the one they inherited. Despite the eternal bluster to the contrary, GOP Presidencies have left more mess than progress at the end of their terms. I expect a Cabinet full of the least qualified yes men we have ever seen will perform worst than past GOP presidencies. So I am betting huge against the market this time. Not going to miss an opportunity to profit from a combination of GOP delusion on economics, combined with the least competent cabinet ever assembled. I hate that I view the US as a poorly run company.
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
I always like to point out to Gen Xers, do you know that weed vape pin you just took a hit off is a felony? Gen Z kids mostly have no idea that that vape pen is the same as carrying a 5 pound sack of weed. But I am simply saying that folks are pulling back at lunch and dinner from my observations, and at the liquor store. Gen z not drinking sure as shit isn't what made the store slow last night. -
Pissed I didn't stop out at least a small chunk at $118, when I had my finger over the stop.. DUMBASS!!!! Yes, but specifically more focused strategies. I was going to buy March 7, $28 UVIX calls for like $2.20ish about 1pm but, thought too much of the same bet... DUMBASS! Would have been about a 65% win, in two hours. What I should have done is just flip my PLTR position, but WAAAAY too much risk betting that much all to the downside. Looking for oddball stuff I may not be aware of honestly? My thought was always that PLTR's best attribute was their secure environment performance would be a plus eventually in the commercial space. They are honestly the only AI company actually booking real scale of profit in AI. But the fucking valuations are psychotic. (See my not stopping out higher post above!!!!). I rode it up and got smoked on the way down once before, so wary. I will come back in the same way I have done in the past at some point. Mostly with covered calls. Then reselling calls at the peak on the same shares. Stock is mercurial, but selling calls high, and buying in the money calls on the downs works when the momentum swings back to PLTR. I think they are well positioned to get more US contracts. But silliness like pretending Pete Hegseth is cutting 8% of military spending, started the big pull back. I actually sort of see parallels between PLTR and the US stock market right now. A lot of hope, high valuations. and a hiccup from a close look at the shitter. US Economy the Game!
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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
I went to Total Wine and more. Seemed super slow. So I asked the cashier, and she was unsure. A manager overheard and piped up "yeah really slow." But honestly this is probably not inflation related. As the price of what I am buying hasn't changed at all in any of the places I mentioned. Honestly my observations are probably not related to inflation, but consumer emotion. -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Oh I knew the term, I just didn't want to use it... Sort of like saying Voldemort... -
2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?
horn4life replied to Reagan1k's topic in Business and Markets
Purely anecdotal but I have noticed that in Temple, Texas the Firehouse I go to has had markedly fewer people eating during the noon hour. In Austin we eat out a lot and I have noticed lighter pressure at the places we go to, of late. But we also often walking into a place at 5-5:30, so it's not a 7 pm peak observation. I need to ask the bartenders/managers if my perception is accurate or a misperception. Lumber is up 18%+ since the election for example. But if my perception of the slowdown in Lunch is correct, breakfast is getting decimated. I never go to breakfast, but usually the first cutbacks are eating out. If lunch starts to pull back, then there are a lot of retail short opportunities that will present themselves pretty quickly. I will be fascinated with the next few rounds of inflation reporting. Market is skittish, and if there was a one two punch of boost in unemployment and rising inflation? -
Well down to $3.03... right at a dime decline a day so far. But not stopped out yet...
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