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horn4life

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Everything posted by horn4life

  1. As we complete assembly of the least qualified and most sycophantic cabinet ever assembled, I look at our government as a corporation. A large behemoth lumbering corporation, but ultimately results are driven by mission, and quality of execution. If I were investing in a corporation and they put in a board of directors like the Trump cabinet? I would short it. The good new is the Chairman of the board has a plan. He will cal the same folks he called the very best, the very brightest... morons and people of very low quality. Would you bet on the success of such an organization? I also happen to know that the last administration added a shit ton of debt and could not sustain the employment numbers they inherited from the Obama administration. Good luck finding a Republican that does not believe the exact opposite. While you can suspend reality in politics, I don't think you can suspend reality in the economy. Now I know the board room will be overflowing with praise no matter the results. I think we are going to have perhaps another 6 weeks before it's clear that inflation is surging. And you cannot scapegoat away economic reality. Add the monster debt bomb that the GOP pretends is not a debt bomb? And you have a recipe for something very, very bad to potentially happen economically. I hope like hell that the exuberance in the market is not as fickle as I think it is. And if I personally continue to lose money on by bets against the market I would be happy to lose more there if the economy can roar. But I see lots of inflationary policies, pettiness, and a general lack of results beyond bluster, from the current cabinet (outside Bessent). And while that may all work very well for television cameras. It tends to negatively impact the bottom line of most corporations.
  2. Well at least we count on fiscal conservatism and deficit reduction to put downward pressure on the bond market. Maybe that will offset the proven inflationary results of tariffs? Now clean that coffee you just spit out off the table!
  3. In fairness she would do legs, but three hours every morning to hit 85% on Wordle is a bit taxing...
  4. Well it was smart for her to smear or report them on the house floor. So that she makes certain that there is no way for the woman who wants accountability to have any accountability for her actions.
  5. Yeah, I was saying Sunday to another investor that just constantly talking about tariffs can bring anticipatory price rises. Either for additional profits sellers think are within reach. Or to ease prices up to cover future additional raw materials costs that would be impacted by the discussed trade. It was almost funny to see the political spin on CNBC by Rick Santoli and Joe Kerns dutifully saying it was silly to think any upwards creep could be anticipatory of stated Trump policies. And it was dishonest to do so. When right before the number came out, Joe was debating was this a Biden number or a Trump number... Then when it's bad... one of those options became an impossibility... My regret is that instead of making my hedge in UVIX so large, I would have pulled the trigger on that March $560 Tesla put for $150 my finger hovered over.
  6. I mean he is right in that on a graph housing has stabilized. He also said that even with lower rates the lack of supply will be an issue. Which to me indicated higher price stickiness? Thus a little bump for the builders today.
  7. Powell - "Housing has stabilized?" WTF. Stabilized in that as long as everyone keeps bailing madly the life boat may barely remain afloat? So does that mean Powell expects to see improving MMI numbers at these levels? Or that these levels are the acceptable levels? In his prepared remarks, but dang.
  8. What was weirdest to me about Kansas CIty was I was seeing red, green and white everywhere. And instead of Tex Mex it was tons of small Italian joints. And I should get some sort of gold star for linking Kansas and Chuy's! Chuy's closes Last Kansas Store
  9. Well I'll take your bird flu, and raise you a potential pandemic like jump into the already reduced cattle population! New bird flu variant found in Cows in Nevada US herd is at 73 year low. I could post a bunch of links about the fears of how a lack of good inter-agency communication could hinder stopping outbreaks from last year's scare in Texas. I can't imagine the communication of agencies improved at the Fed level at this point, can you? IF this new variant spreads even a little you could see some severe upwards price pressure on beef. Which will encourage non-infected meat sources to edge their prices up as well. (if they think they can). Read about the small calf numbers in this link for greater clarity on the risk. https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smallest-in-73-years I will be fascinated to month over month inflation numbers at the end of Feb and March. Markets will shit a brick if that number moves upward. And you know that coffee, sugar, eggs, cocoa and lumber all markedly up in the last month. Not that there is not some good news downward, but to me a lot more news that could really being inflation back as a focus, especially if we have to start culling from the smallest US cattle herd in our lifetimes...
  10. I got pretty friendly with a DPS officer when I was down in Port A, after Harvey trying to help a friend how had recently had back surgery meet up with adjuster and contractors. I was like the only guy fishing on the beach, and the officer rolled up the first time when I was hooked up on a big red, and then twice when he drove up to say hi, I got a bite while we were talking. Anyhow he said that he and his wife had a retirement plan. They were going to tape a tortilla to their truck antenna and head North. The plan was than whenever somebody asked them that that was on their antenna they would put down roots and open a taco stand. I wonder if there is honestly anywhere in the US where you can't get a taco.
  11. The problem for A&M They drop bag after fucking bag proving repetitively the stupidity of long term no cut contracts for Coaches with one decent season under their belts. In essence it does not matter how many Bags A&M drops. You can't buy your way out of stupid.
  12. Well... at least we never have to pretend Republicans have any principles at all.... So there's that! 😉
  13. Only pussies worry about the cost of eggs. Just sit back and enjoy a cheap cup of coffee!
  14. Sort of interesting dichotomy of the market on some reporting today Pinterest pops on AI targeting advertising revenue boost Expedia pops on usage so folks spending and traveling Affirm really pops on number of folks using the monthly payment model. So AI investments coming to fruition for Pinterest, and optimistic traveling consumer. Both great economic signs looking forward. However, I would think that a boost in usage of pay by the month, would infer that some folks need to stretch out funding for their online purchases? Which would be a bad sign. Or I guess it could also be possible that Affirm's marketing and wider consumer acceptance, boosted the user number? But that would not be the horse I would be betting on in the Affirm number.
  15. I remember that it was very cumbersome and not worth it for me, when I researched it a couple years ago. OK so things are as I remember, and not for an investor. But for a young person that is very handy, and works for a roofing company? Might be worth taking a hard look at if I was in the situation he is. The fact he is familiar with the hassle of working with insurance companies might actually be a plus in dealing with the BS. I would also think that in more rural areas there might be more opportunity? Maybe easier to find a neglected house on a little land that looks pretty damn nice once fixed up. Maybe I can help this young guy along in life. Good guy, and I wanted to follow up on our conversation with accurate "here's what you can do" advice. -When I did renovate and sell a foreclosure I did it all on my dime. I wasn't trying to scale, just seeing if my instincts were right. It seemed at that point in time the best way for financing for a foreclosure remodel, was building a relationship with a local community banker? And doing a 1 year interest only loan. Or use a hard money lender. I assume this is still the case. Thanks for all the info!
  16. So I was talking to a younger fellow who is giving me a bid on some work, and we were talking about wealth accumulation. I told him one thing I wish I would have known at his age is that you can pull out so much money tax free, remodeling and selling your homestead. Now you have to get your wife to buy in. And if you want to stay in the same school district you always need to be hunting for the next house in your area. I told him I would actively look for old folks garage sales, and perhaps they are looking to move. If you can strike a deal you can go the attorney route rather than agent route. So may be a dumb question but are there very many lenders that package remodeling costs into a loan, base on the remodeled home price. Seems like there has to be something out there, but WTF do I know. Seems like FHA had a vehicle for that, But is there a conventional equivalent? Seems like the non-fed way was to finance the renovation yourself and plan on refinance after the renovation.
  17. Look in South Austin's mom's vajayjay...
  18. Work hard to the Maximus in the gym, study to the Maximus, and you can leave here as Longhorn Legend Maximus National Champius!
  19. It never hurts to talk. And I always ask how much money would your boss give up out of his pocket to keep you on? BUT I would also play the loyalty card. That it would have to be a very, very good offer to lure you away. And there is not way you would leave your current (though new) employer without adequate notice. And that he is hesitant to leave. Basically drive up the salary with this. This way you get both Thunderdome, and Old School Loyalty vibe in the interview.
  20. If it's any consolation I could have been PC's Limited employee number 128... But I would be on my 3rd or 4th wife by now.... so there's that!
  21. It's fucking crazy I know. Like crack.
  22. Not for dinner tonight! My play with Palantir is that is has been working AI in some of the most necessarily secure environments there are. So I think that corporate clients will not question the reliability and hack proof(?) software package. I've been bleeding with my Uvix hedge to some degree. But it was to get to this earnings. I actually bailed a little bit and retrenched when it and Uvix were both dumping I dumped a bunch a $64.50ish near the bottom middle of the month from this particular memory... This is our risky account. I assume there will be short covering by retail investors in the AM. Big beat. Glad I was on the right side of it.
  23. Probably actually as simple Guacamole and Super Bowl...
  24. I like this play with the US economy like a toy game we have going on now. Thank God Trump inherited such a strong economy, or this sort of shit would go really bad.
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